Category: Brexit

AFTER BREXIT, A CORBYN GOVERNMENT ?

 

 

THE PEOPLE HAVEN’T RISEN UP.

At this turn of the year I wait in vain for any sign that the British public has changed its mind on Brexit in sufficient numbers to encourage a revolt amongst Remain parliamentarians.

So, in looking forward to 2018, I am forced to the depressing conclusion that the year will see some sort of deal hammered out to take us out of the EU, single market, customs union and all.

Without a public reaction against the fiasco unfolding before our eyes, the Tory rebels have only felt able to exercise their influence once. They got called saboteurs for their pains and are unlikely to use their influence again. Tory unity is an abiding reality. Remainers in the Labour Party feel similarly hamstrung by public opinion and the fact that Jeremy Corbyn has always seen the EU as a capitalist conspiracy. In any case he has other fish to fry as I discuss below.

The Liberal Democrats under the leadership of Vince Cable have so far shown themselves totally incapable of mobilising people for their Exit from Brexit campaign. 2018 might see the leadership contested between new Oxford West MP Layla Moran and Deputy Leader Jo Swinson.

The House of Lords will give the Withdrawal Bill a rough passage with courageous peers like Lords Adonis and Heseltine leading the way. However, they are likely to ultimately recognise that Article 50 had a big Commons majority and give way. The Brexit bullies will also threaten the Lords very existence if they don’t bend the knee.

Of most significance in all this is the change of tone coming from Europe. There is a sense that they’ve given up on this troublesome island and want to get the whole thing over with. Providing the terms don’t give encouragement to others to leave, a deal will probably be struck.

It is difficult to see how that will then pass through 27 parliaments and the European Parliament. It will depend how strong the mood is to make an end of the UK membership and move on to the other pressing issues the 27 face.

So, the message to businesses in the North is to prepare for increased costs, communication delays and more bureaucracy in our dealings with Europe and good luck with the search for those global markets.

AFTER BREXIT, PUBLIC SERVICES.

This year we will see a growing demand to get Brexit off the political agenda in order to tackle the huge domestic agenda that is building up. The NHS crisis, a lack of housing, the manifestations of poverty, elderly social care, rail and road congestion and the general post Grenfell distrust of institutions will crowd out Brexit eventually.

The country will be in a far worse place to tackle these issues after we are out of the EU. Watch as the EU membership contributions disappear into the Chancellor’s coffers. £350 million a week for the NHS? Don’t hold your breath.

In charge of dealing with these major social issues will be the Tories who, in 2018, will mark their eight years in power. Have they got the vision, will and energy to solve these problems? The chances are that this year we might begin to see what the post Brexit political landscape might be like. It could see the Tories blamed for Brexit and a greater faith in the radical socialist alternatives offered by Corbyn’s Labour Party.

After the next election we could see a weakened Britain deciding to pay high taxes to finance housing and social care with big cuts in defence including our nuclear deterrent. A flight of business and free market investment might be a price people will be prepared to pay.

OTHER MATTERS IN 2018.

After momentous elections since 2014, 2018 promises a quiet year on the election front in the North. Labour are already totally dominant here and even an all-out election on new boundaries in Manchester won’t change that.

We will have to look to the mid term elections in the United States for excitement. Will they produce sufficient Democrat victories to start a campaign in the Republican Party to deny Donald Trump a second term nomination ? Don’t bet on it, the economy is doing well, and Trump is delivering on some of his crazy policies to the delight of his supporters.

To brighten the gloom, we have a Royal Wedding and World Cup to look forward to although in the latter case the England team may darken our darkness.

Happy New Year!

 

 

GOOD CHEER FOR FOES OF BREXIT AND TRUMP

 

IS THE CENTRE FIGHTING BACK IN THE UK AND U.S ?

 

Over the last year it has often felt that the hard right is leading the UK and USA over the cliff. President Trump’s boorish behaviour was excused by his supporters. In this country the narrow vote to leave the EU was being used by hard line Brexiteers as a licence to cut us adrift from our European friends to set up a low tax/low standard economy linked to a trade deal with Mr Trump.

Well the House of Commons and voters in Alabama have given notice that there are limits to what we’ll take. The victory for a meaningful vote on the Brexit deal and the defeat of the awful Republican candidate, Roy Moore, in the Alabama senate contest should cheer all who occupy the centre ground in politics.

These victories will not be significant on their own, but they must encourage MPs who want the British people to think again about our membership of the EU to be bolder in the face of people like Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn. In America the Democrats must raise their game to inflict bad mid term results on the Republicans who will then be so spooked that they will deny Trump renomination in 2020.

These two events may be false dawns. Taking Alabama first, Roy Moore has been described as the worst Republican candidate ever fielded. With serious allegations about his sexual behaviour unresolved Moore was disowned by most of the Republican Party, apart from Trump who knows what its like to face claims of improper conduct with women. The Democrats won’t face many easy targets like Moore. That said it was their first Senate victory in Alabama in 25 years.

Now to the victory by Tory rebels which ensures parliament will have a meaningful vote on the Brexit deal. You could call it taking back control of parliament’s sovereignty, a concept that will be familiar to Brexiteers. It opens the possibility that when the poor terms of Brexit are finally exposed, MPs will have a chance to say no. But much needs to happen before Remain parliamentarians would feel bold enough to reverse Brexit rather than just ask the government to renegotiate the terms of leaving.

The British people need to have a change of mind. They took the decision nearly two years ago at a dreadful time for the EU. They can now see the huge complications involved in leaving and what’s it all for. Mrs May is now signed up to a bill of forty billion, a role for the European Court of Justice over EU nationals, respect for new EU laws during the transition phase and full alignment with the single market and customs union unless we can work out a border agreement with the Irish.

If the public change their mind, the ranks of Tory rebels will grow and Jeremy Corbyn will seize the chance to change his party’s stance even though he’ll always remain a Eurosceptic.

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BUDGET EXPOSES BREXIT MADNESS

 

 

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BREXIT WOES.

In his Budget the Chancellor set aside three billion pounds more for the mounting cost of Brexit. Three billion pounds that could have been spent on the NHS (as promised by the Leavers) being put aside for more lawyers and civil servants to deal with the complexity of leaving. Being put aside to build huge car parks at Dover to cope with the hundreds of lorries held up by customs controls. And let us not forget the £40bn exit bill.

But Brexit is hitting us in a far more serious and widespread way. Look at the woeful forecasts for growth and productivity. It is true that these problems pre-date the EU Referendum, but I suggest the dramatic worsening of the forecasts are related to the uncertainties of Brexit and the perception that the UK is cutting itself adrift from the EU, many of whose members are in the Eurozone where the currency has strengthened considerably in the last year.

It is almost too late for the British people to wake up and turn against Brexit. The warnings are there for anyone who wants to see. This week the European Banking Authority and European Medicines Agency were relocated out of the UK. The latter is the most serious and will be a blow to our pharmaceutical industry quite apart from the fact that we will need to create our own expensive drug regulation body. The government should have faced far more criticism for this. They thought the future of these agencies would be part of Brexit bargaining. The arrogance! The ignorance! It was never going to be possible to keep EU bodies like these in a UK outside the EU.

Oh! but we will be playing on the global stage in the future say the Leavers. Is that the stage where the UK has just lost its place on the International Court of Justice?

PHIL SAVES THE DAY.

As I said last week, I respect the Chancellor. In a Cabinet of misfits his calm integrity stands out. After the Budget perhaps all the hysteria of him getting sacked and Theresa not surviving till Christmas will calm down.

This lot are in it for the long run. Locked into the messy Brexit process and tinkering with a weak economy, but still there. After all, where is the threat. Tory Remainer rebels probably lack the courage to torpedo Brexit and the government can always on Labour MPs like Frank Field and Kate Hoey to come to their aid. Meanwhile Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell struggles to convince us that Labour’s programme could be paid for without hugely adding to the National Debt. It pains me to say it, but the Lib Dems under Vince Cable seem to be fading away just when we need a strong party for Europe.

The Chancellor took some action on the immediate issues facing the country. Housing, Universal Benefit and the NHS but he is locked into Tory ideology by not sanctioning local councils to undertake a massive programme of house building. He is also averse to general tax increases, but why? A cross party panel of voters in Bury voted unanimously for such a move on Newsnight after the Chancellor had sat down.

Thank heavens the Chancellor has stuck with the £85,000 limit on VAT, but for how long will micro businesses be spared the bureaucracy of quarterly accounting. The moves on business rates have been generally welcomed but three-year reviews may be a mixed blessing, as will stamp duty relief for first time buyers. Will youngsters benefit or will house prices just rise. Council house building is the answer.

It now seems highly unlikely the Chancellor will be sacked now that he is “Eeyore No More” according to the Mail. So, the government is set to stagger on as the darkening days bring the reality of the consequences of Brexit ever closer.

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BREXIT CONSEQUENCES BEGIN TO BITE.

 

BOTH BREXITEERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CABINET.

A government weakened by scandal and divided over its approach to Europe continues with its ill-starred attempt to leave the European Union.

One leading Brexiteer Cabinet Minister Priti Patel has resigned, but another, Boris Johnson is still in place despite risking extending the detention of a British national in Iran.

Immigrant workers, vital to our caring services, are staying away, jobs are going at British Aerospace in Lancashire and Vauxhall in Ellesmere Port. Both industries rely on the easy movement of parts across borders. Thousands of lawyers and civil servants are being taken on to deal with the whole miserable negative exercise of Brexit. (No doubt their wages will be coming out of the £350m a week that was promised for the NHS.) The port of Dover is making plans for the huge congestion that will build up after March 2019.

So how is all this affecting the heart of the Northern Powerhouse? What is the economic outlook in Greater Manchester as the Budget approaches? I’ve been testing economic opinion which indicates that the crash that was forecast immediately after the EU referendum didn’t happen because of a credit boom and the growth of car leasing. It is felt that is now coming to an end as inflation and now the rise in interest rates kicks in. There is a fall in business confidence amidst the chronic Brexit uncertainty with a demand that the 2019-21 transitional agreement be broadly in line with the final agreement.

Northern economists believe we are looking at a growth rate of 1.5% not 2.5% that was previously hoped for. Looking further into the future we need to prepare for automation, robotics and paying more for UK workers as immigration falls.

In Greater Manchester next year jobs growth is expected to be flat. Employment in retail and financial services will be weak. Mike Blackburn, boss of the Local Enterprise Partnership, is worried that ministers don’t realise the impact Brexit will have on an area which exports 58% of its goods to the EU compared to a national average of 42%. He wants powers returned from the EU devolved to the North.

The Chancellor will be under severe pressure in the Budget to do more on housing. Steve Rumbelow, CEO of Rochdale Council, wants a major programme of council house building. He points out that permission for 50,000 houses in Greater Manchester are not being exercised.

Joanne Roney has had a quiet start since succeeding Sir Howard Bernstein as CEO of Manchester Council. She has indicated her priority is people rather than infrastructure development which characterised her predecessor’s tenure. She identified poor school starts for a large section of Manchester pupils fed into poor GCSE performance leaving colleges to teach Level 2 skills.

Eamonn Boylan is charged with looking at the picture across Greater Manchester as CEO of the Combined Authority. The spatial strategy which deals with the use of green belt and brownfield land is being rewritten after running into opposition from Mayor Burnham, is being rewritten.

Boylan points out the devolution deal is much more about powers than giving the city region money. Promises over devolving power over adult skills had still not been delivered. Local politicians and officers had many bright ideas about what could be done locally. For instance, there was an abundance of advice on how to get to university but very little on taking up vocational courses.

So that’s a sample of the thinking of people charged with putting the concept of the Northern Powerhouse into reality. But they are handicapped by the shadow of Brexit. Let’s hope for a substantial change in popular opinion that would allow Labour to oppose our leaving the EU and we could have an Exit to Brexit.

Follow me @JimHancockUK