FROM BALFOUR TO TRUMP

 

THE PALESTINIANS NEED SOMETHING TOO

A hundred years ago a western statesman intervened in the cauldron of Middle East politics and we’ve been living with the consequences ever since. I fear Donald Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, with no simultaneous effort to broker a general settlement to the Palestinian issue, will lead to another century of conflict.

In 1917 the British Foreign Secretary Arthur Balfour declared that Great Britain would look favourably on the creation of a national home for the Jewish people providing nothing was done to prejudice the rights of non-Jewish people. The declaration was made at a difficult time in the First World War when Britain was fighting against the Ottoman Empire which was allied with Germany. There were worries that the Germans were wooing the growing Zionist Movement.

The declaration begged many questions including did a “national home” mean a state? How would Arab and Christian interests be protected? What would the borders be and what would be the status of Jerusalem? 100 years, three wars and much violence later, many of these questions remain unresolved.

So why has Trump acted now? He rightly says it has been Congress policy since 1995 to move the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem but without prejudicing final status. Previous Presidents have not enacted the resolution because they feared it would indeed prejudice final status talks and give no incentive to Israel to negotiate with the Palestinians who want East Jerusalem as their capital.

The other factor is Saudi Arabia. Although they have joined the rest of the Arab world, the EU and Britain in criticising the move, the Saudis have grown close to Trump. This is because of the President’s tough stand on Iran, Saudi Arabia’s enemy. Trump has calculated that the Saudis will make ritual noises but will not really back a backlash against America.

All that said I have an awful sense that within weeks we will see a terrorist outrage in Israel, Europe or America with the extremists citing this move as the reason for it. They will have no justification for violence. It solves nothing.

What needs to happen is a two-state solution. Jerusalem is the very difficult issue Could it be divided city again with West Jerusalem, the Israeli capital, East Jerusalem the Palestinian capital with the Holy Places under United Nations control?

UNIVERSITIES IN THE CROSS HAIRS.

It is a difficult time for our universities. Vice Chancellor’s pay is under scrutiny and rightly so at a time when their students are racking up big debts.

Most of the coverage has centred on Bath University where the VC’s pay was ludicrous. Apart from Sheffield University’s Sir Keith Burnett £422,700, none of our northern universities VCs are in the top ten. This even though Janet Beer at Liverpool and Nancy Rothwell at Manchester are doing great jobs with huge responsibilities.

But they will be aware of the issues circling around this sector of higher education. With students paying big fees, the degree courses need to fit them for the modern world. The institutions need to be accountable to the communities they serve, and the campuses need to be centres of free speech. That is a challenge for student leaders as well as university staff. No platforms for Israeli politicians or people with differing views on transgender matters are a violation of everything a university should stand for.

 

HIKE INCOME TAX FOR THE CARE CRISIS?

 

 

THE UNMENTIONABLE TAX INCREASE.

An aide to former Prime Minister David Cameron has admitted that the promise not to increase income tax, VAT or national insurance was made to fill a gap in a stream of policy announcements before the last General Election.

Nevertheless increasing income tax has become an unmentionable subject even for Jeremy Corbyn who demands instead that the planned cut in Corporation Tax be scrapped in order to cope with the mounting crisis in elderly care.

The government are not handling the problem well. It was not even mentioned in the Autumn Statement. Now we see ambulances queueing outside hospitals because elderly people can’t be discharged. That’s because there are no home care packages for them. That’s because councils can’t afford them or are running out of private providers who say Town Halls can’t give them an economic rate. That’s because of government cuts.

Now in a panic local authorities are going to be allowed to raise council tax by an extra 2% in each of the next two years, but not in 2019-20 when the Local Government Association reckon the social care gap will rise from its current figure of £1.3bn to £2.6bn. Presumably by then the whole issue will have been rethought and refunded.

But even this panic measure by the government will help the south more than the north because of its low council tax base. The top three beneficiaries are Surrey, Kent and Essex whilst Manchester and Liverpool are in the bottom ten. This presumes that the councillors will automatically levy the extra precept. They are expected to because there are no metropolitan borough elections next year. However there are mayoral contests in Liverpool and Manchester City Regions.

One wonders whether Corbyn’s Labour Party might be the first to break cover and support income tax increases to deal with the growing crisis in elderly care.

BRUTAL TRUTH IN THE MIDDLE EAST.

The policy of using western influence to remove brutal dictators in the Middle East and North Africa has long been discredited. In the rubble of Aleppo we see its nadir. Saddam Hussein in Iraq, Mubarak in Egypt and Gaddafi in Libya were all removed. As a consequence their countries are riddled with Islamic extremists even worse than them.

Assad in Syria refused to go, found an ally in Russia, and seems to be prepared bludgeon his people into submission to remain in charge.

The West has lurched from bungling interference to incompetence, certainly in respect of Syria. We encouraged moderate rebels to revolt against Assad, then didn’t back them up properly as they became infiltrated by extremists. What help we did give allows Russia to suggest we are partly backing Islamist extremists against the official government of a country in Syria whilst doing the opposite in Iraq.

All this could have a major effect on the world power balance. Russia is economically weak but has a clear, if brutal, view of its own interests. China grows more powerful and assertive in the Pacific. America is in a state of uncertainty over Trump and the European Union is in great danger of collapsing in a wave of populism.

Follow me at www.jimhancock.co.uk