WITHER THE UNION AND COMMONWEALTH?

JUST JIM 510.

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SAME AGE.

I had the pleasure of meeting the late Queen just once when she opened the new University of Manchester in 2004. Like most people I want to express my sadness at the passing of a great monarch.

Still on the personal front, I am one month younger than the new king. That means that I have been the same phases of life, youth, adolescence, maturity and now the elderly phase. One of the great differences is that whilst I am winding down, Charles the Third is just beginning his greatest challenge.

I think he has started pretty well and is certainly “up to it.” The modesty of his speeches, his dedication to public service and the willingness to meet the public in his hour of grief has been impressive. After all, in the public mind a quarter of a century ago, Charles and Camilla suffered badly in the court of public opinion when Diana died. Slowly they have gained the respect of the public as the King and Queen Consort begin their reign over a troubled kingdom.

STANDS SCOTLAND WHERE IT DID?

How troubled remains to be seen. I was surprised to hear a senior BBC commentator say that if the Queen had not died at Balmoral, Scotland would have been denied the impressive ceremonies we witnessed last weekend. They seemed to me vital to the project of keeping the union together. A large number of Scottish nationalists want a republican, independent Scotland, but the leadership of the SNP certainly do not want to raise that issue. The First Minister Nicola Sturgeon was warm in her tribute to Queen Elizabeth (there has only been one in Scotland). The issue of independence is finely balanced and SNP support for a republic would alienate many people who want to end the union forged in 1707 but keep the 1603 union of the crowns.

THE IRISH QUESTION.

With its background of violence, the Irish Question is even more tricky for Charles the Third. Republicans were full of praise for the way in which the late Queen sought better relations with Ireland even though the IRA murdered her husband’s uncle, Lord Mountbatten.

All that is threatened by the Brexit induced row with the EU over tariff borders.

THE COMMONWEALTH.

It is now becoming clear that the late Queen saved the Commonwealth from breaking up over South African sanctions. Throughout her reign she wanted to make it clear to the newly independent countries that this wasn’t an Empire-lite project.

When Margaret Thatcher opposed sanctions against apartheid South Africa, the Queen’s Press Secretary had to quit after leaking that the monarch was dismayed. The rare glimpse into what the Queen thought showed her determination to show Commonwealth leaders that she could distance herself from the British government.

DEFENDER OF THE FAITH.

At one time there was a lot of speculation that in multi-cultural Britain, Charles would wish to drop the title Defender of the Faith (i.e., the Anglican Church) and replace it with Defender of Faith. It could not be done at this moment of monarchical transition, but it will be interesting if it is revisited during Charles reign.

He may feel it wise not to stir things up. The dramas surrounding Prince Andrew, Prince Harry and Meghan have still not played out

On Monday Elizabeth the Second will be laid to rest after an extraordinary period which began with a new Prime Minister and a new king in forty-eight historic hours and ended with a huge outpouring of love and loyalty from her subjects, young and old. The fact that the former have been evident in such large numbers, bodes well for the future of the institution.

IT’S DIVERSE,BUT WILL IT WORK?

THIS WAS WRITTEN BEFORE THE VERY SAD NEWS ABOUT THE QUEEN

A woman Prime Minister and the three main offices of state held by people of colour is a powerful statement of the Conservative Party’s commitment to diversity.

Now let’s get down to the politics. As the campaign developed it became increasingly clear that Liz Truss was blatantly courting the Tory faithful. Meanwhile Rishi Sunak was trying to tell them the truth. The Conservative Party have taken a gamble with a woman who was a Lib Dem and is now a Tory. A Remainer who is now such a passionate leaver that she could risk a trade war with the EU, and someone who four weeks ago was against “handouts” and who has now undertaken a massive, big state intervention to deal with the energy crisis.

But at least she is not Boris Johnson and must be given a chance in the most difficult circumstances a Prime Minister has taken office since Margaret Thatcher in 1979. Showing the door to Priti Patel was an excellent move. The ex-Home Secretary was a prime example of a politician talking a good game and delivering little. She was tasked with delivering on the key issue that led to the Brexit vote, immigration. The rapidly increasing flow of boat people across the channel shows her total ineffectiveness. We are also well rid of Nadine Dorries with her threats against the BBC and Channel Four, however it remains to be seen whether her successor will continue to shoot the messengers.

The retention of Preston North MP, Ben Wallace, as Defence Secretary is good. It is a shame he didn’t run for the top job. Two of our MPs have been involved in a curious shuffle. Andrew Stephenson, the highly capable MP for Pendle has been sacked as Conservative Party Chairman and replaced by the equally capable Rossendale MP Jake Berry.

It is good to see Kit Malthouse in the Cabinet as Education Secretary. When Boris Johnson was Mayor of London, it was often left to Malthouse to put some coherence into the mayor’s chaotic policy making. Less welcome is the retention of Jacob Rees-Mogg in the government, now as Business Secretary. His hostile attitude to the European Union and aspects of climate change policy will not be good for business.

I fear for the future of levelling up and devolution, so essential to the North. The new Secretary of State for this department, Simon Clarke was an impressive Treasury Minister. The question is what is Liz Truss’s attitude to ending the north-south divide? And even if she is in favour, the enormous challenge of the energy crisis is surely going to side-line any serious development of a policy that seems to have stalled.

From the first Prime Minister’s questions under the new government, it seems as if a semblance of calm and rationality has returned. At the moment the government and opposition need to behave in that way as people and business are worried sick about the future.

Whether they eventually want a fifth term of Conservative government looks to be a decision for 2024 according to Liz Truss, who appears unwilling to seek an immediate endorsement from the voters for understandable reasons.

IS JOHNSON REALLY GONE ?

COMEBACK POSSIBILITY.

Since 1900 only three Prime Ministers have returned to office. Stanley Baldwin did it three times during the volatile inter war period. Winston Churchill, having been sensationally booted out after winning the Second World War, returned in 1951. Harold Wilson retained the leadership of the Labour Party after his defeat by Ted Heath in 1970 and returned four years later.

Usually, Prime Ministers removed by the voters or their party, know their time is up. They have enough humility and self-awareness to go gracefully. So, what happens when a bombastic, unprincipled man with a massive ego is kicked out?

Boris Johnson is a bitter man. His reference to “the herd” in his resignation speech in Downing Street not only shows his contempt for his backbenchers but also sent out a warning that this man is going to be trouble for the next Prime Minister.

Just like Donald Trump didn’t accept the election result in America, Johnson is showing no sign that he accepts he has disgraced the office and must accept he will never walk through the door of Number 10 again.

There are further worrying similarities with Trump and Johnson. In America, the Attorney General has bags of evidence that the former President was involved in attempts to subvert the transition of power to Joe Biden. He is agonising about taking action because of the political rage that will come from the Republican right. They fear court proceedings could stop him running for President in 2024.

Here we have a similar attempt to prevent justice taking its course. The Daily Mail has launched a full-scale campaign to disband a Commons committee that is looking into claims that Johnson  mislead parliament over the partygate affair. The integrity of committee members, including four Conservatives, have been called into question. So far, they have resisted. Well done Andy Carter (Con Warrington South) and his colleagues. Do not be bullied and do your job. If it ends up with a successful recall petition by the voters of Uxbridge, so be it.

The Mail is claiming thousands of Tory Party members and some MPs are regretting their decision to remove Johnson and want him to be on standby if Truss (likely) or Sunak (sadly unlikely) screw up.

Heaven knows why. Of course, there are external forces that Johnson is not responsible for, but he is leaving the country in an awful state. Scandalously Johnson hasn’t insisted on himself, Sunak and Truss agreeing a plan to save millions from energy poverty this winter. People and business have endured weeks of worry while we wait for the Tories to stop picking holes in each other.

There are waves of strikes, people can’t see a GP or get an ambulance, illegal migrants pour across the channel to a nation that voted to destroy our ties with the EU to “take back control.” What a joke.

Despite this we must take seriously that Johnson will make trouble on the lucrative lecture circuit. He’s even rumoured to be planning to attend the Tory Party conference. Has he no shame or consideration for his party?

Next Monday we will have a new Prime Minister, rarely will they have inherited such a difficult legacy from the worst Prime Minister in history.

STARMER: POWER OR THE PICKET LINE?

LABOUR’S DILEMMA.

Sir Keir Starmer could have chosen to come to Lime Street station on Wednesday and join the RMT picket line, instead he came to Liverpool on Monday to speak to business people about growth. At Downtown events throughout the day, he told us his party would not neglect the public services, but the economy would be central at the next election. He wanted the right relationship with business and would set up an Industrial Strategy Council. (Very old readers may remember Neddy! The National Economic Development Council of the sixties).

The growth strategy apparently involves ditching promises he made to nationalise rail, energy, and water when he stood for the leadership two years ago. Well, there’s a novelty! Aspirants to lead their party making promises to activists that will have to be modified when facing the electorate as a whole. I think you’ll find Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss engaged in that very exercise at the moment.

The fact is if Labour opportunistically backed every wage demand being made at the moment, they would be vulnerable to Tory attacks and their economic credibility would be shattered. Labour has to fight desperately hard to be trusted with the economy. Few doubt their passion for the NHS, but they regularly lose out to the Conservatives who are perceived to be sounder on running the country’s finances.

However, inflation, energy and food price rises make a compelling case for wage increases. With Brexit caused labour shortages thrown into the mix, Starmer has to support legitimate claims whilst not giving full backing to strikes which inflict misery on potential voters trying to get to work. It is a tricky balancing act.

He may be given a chance to appease the left in his party if Liz Truss becomes Prime Minister and tries to crack down further on public sector strikes. Starmer might have the support of the public if they feel the Tories are going too far.

THE LIVERPOOL VISIT.

Once again Downtown in Business was at the centre of the political action. Our members were out in numbers to hear Sir Keir’s major speech on the economy that led the bulletins on Monday morning.

Then he was off to Anfield to pay respects at the Hillsborough Memorial and on a happier note visit the venue where Arsenal’s Michael Thomas goal stole the league from the Reds in 1989. Starmer is a passionate Arsenal fan.

At an evening reception in the Ropeworks area of the city, he told us that his Shadow Chancellor who “knows nothing about football” had been to Goodison to learn about the regeneration plans involving Everton’s planned move to Bramley Moore Dock.

At the Ropeworks reception he was accompanied by two of his most able Shadow Cabinet members, Alison McGovern, Employment (Wirral South) and Johnny Reynolds, Business (Stalybridge and Hyde).

The theme was again the economy with Reynolds making the point that, for the first time, young people were worse off than their parents.

Starmer renewed Labour’s pledge to devolve power, but the policy is not clearly developed yet. The Labour leader said devolution would be to “places.” I asked him if he meant more mayors or a revival of regional government. He wasn’t sure at this stage but said the issue was important.

So, a mixed week for Starmer who now has to wait to see who his opponent will be in 2024.

We’ll have a clearer picture when Just Jim returns in September.