GRIMMER AND GRIMMER.

NO REAL LIGHT IN THE TUNNEL.

Boris Johnson would have liked to have delivered a more optimistic message this week with business clamouring for an easing of the lockdown. However, the Prime Minister knows the situation remains grim, at best the crisis has plateaued.

It was long overdue for deaths in care homes to be combined with those in hospital. We can now see the mortality rate in this country is one of the worst in the world. The Prime Minister is not in a position to say we are out of the worst. It could be some weeks before any easing of the lockdown is possible. Total deaths will need to fall dramatically from their current levels, infection rates (the R number) will have to remain around 0.5, the testing and protective clothing crises eased.

People are craving for some certainty so they can plan their lives, but I fear the truth may be that a second wave is a serious possibility this autumn. If that is the case, releasing the lockdown only to slam it down again might be worse than keeping it on. I say that because a second lockdown would be received with anger and disobedience by large numbers of people.

If I am right, the business implications are truly horrendous. The recovery is likely to be U shaped and there will be permanent scarring of the economy.

KICK IT INTO TOUCH.

Sport generally, and the Premier League in particular, is kidding itself about much of a comeback this year. It looks pretty certain there will be no events attended by large crowds this year.

The suggested answer is behind closed doors matches. Apart from the soulless experience for people watching on TV, hundreds of people would be involved in putting the games on. If just one player tested positive, the whole thing would collapse.

So, I suggest we aim to resume the season in March 2021 and play it out as normal. It will become known as the 2019-21 season. Of course, millions of pounds of TV contract money goes down the drain but we are talking about life and death.

If the football authorities are determined to finish this season, then it might be possible at the very end of the year. Then there could be two seasons with January starts with the 2022 season beginning in January and ending with the winter World Cup in Qatar, which solves another problem.

10 YEARS ON.

Labour lost power ten years ago next week. I like counter factual history so what would have happened if Labour had cobbled together a deal to stay in power?

Gordon Brown’s head was the price the Lib Dems demanded to share power, but would the Labour leadership election have produced a different result. Faced with choosing a Prime Minister rather than a Leader of the Opposition, might they have picked David Miliband?

He would have faced the same economic problems that George Osborne solved with austerity and the demand for a referendum on Scottish independence. But with a less severe approach to cuts, he may have kept the UK united and given himself a chance of staying in office in 2015 against a Tory party tearing itself apart over Europe.

LEVEL WITH US….DON’T LIE>

BETTER APPROACH NEEDED.

The government have done well in ensuring the NHS did not fall over during the worst of the virus pandemic. They are also to be congratulated on flattening the peak. Beyond that, and whilst acknowledging that Corvid-19 has brought huge challenges, the picture is less rosy.

On major issues like testing, protective clothing and care homes,the track record is poor. More openness is required both about the difficulties and the general shape, a lifting of the lockdown would look like. Not dates or promises, but just sharing some ideas with a public that have been remarkably supportive of the strategy so far.

The approach that is wholly wrong centres on the cover up that has gone on over cooperation with the European Union on medical procurement. We had a chance to be part of a large-scale order for vital supplies. During this transition year, we are still eligible to be part of such agreements. The initial reason we were given for our failure to take part was a mix up over emails. That excuse is utterly implausible.

Then the Permanent Secretary at the Foreign Office let the cat out of the bag. Sir Simon McDonald told MPs that it was a political decision. In other words, the government’s aversion to anything EU was put before health considerations. Worse was to follow when Sir Simon issued a statement saying he was mistaken. Do we believe that this top civil servant would have gone into a meeting with MPs without a full briefing on a topic what he was bound to be questioned on?

Soon civil servants will be required to confess their sins in front of jeering crowds.

THE LONG HAUL.

Downtown has been doing its best to support all our business friends, particularly in the hospitality industry.

However, this week brought the grim, but realistic, forecast that a modified shutdown is going to be with us throughout this year and possibly beyond. Bars, restaurants and football will be at the end of the queue for opening up to crowds.

Even then the return to normality will be slow and here comes the rub as far as the hospitality industry is concerned. The fear is that partial reopening (using half the tables in a restaurant, allowing a limited number of people into a pub) will be worse than staying closed. The reasoning is that they operate on tight margins and need to be as full as possible. Employing staff in half empty premises will be more costly than staying shut.

The question could be where will we eat, drink and celebrate when we’ve all got our vaccinations in two years time?

A LONG WAY BACK

TESTING TIMES.

Following this week’s extension of the lockdown, business in the North is desperate for some indication of how long it might go on. The pressure on the government for an answer is only increased by the partial lifting of restrictions in Spain and Italy.

The main problem is the lack of testing. Few believe the Health Secretary will achieve 100,000 tests by the end of April. Until we identify where the infection dangers remain at their highest, how can the government ease the restrictions?

One wants to give Ministers some slack as they are faced with the enormity of Corvid-19 but the response to the virus both medically and economically has been patchy. Capacity in the NHS seems to have been addressed with some of the Nightingale hospitals standing empty. But in the areas of testing and protective clothing, one gets the impression that there has been a lack of transparency and a surplus of wishful thinking. On the number of deaths, the figure we need to see prominently on our TV screens is the total number of deaths in hospitals and care homes, even if the latter takes longer to compile.

The revelation of the true position in our care homes over the last week has been truly shocking. The service needs to be treated as a twin of the NHS, both now and in a long-term solution that has so far just caused political point scoring.

ECONOMIC CAUTION.

There is much speculation about the shape of the recovery when it comes. It is unlikely to be V shaped in my opinion. Although there will be pent up demand, millions of people will have had their income planning totally disrupted. There will be caution in the high street and in the property market. Without testing there will be fear about mass contact while the virus is still out there.

The Office for Budget Responsibility spelt out the stark figures this week. The OBR does not disguise the difficulties the government will face when it finally relents on the shutdown.

STARMER’S NORTH WEST STARLETS.

The new Labour leader has now completed his team for when politics gets back to normal. I’ve been looking at the North West MPs that he has picked.

There are a couple of Corbyn supporters; Dan Carden (Walton) who is in the Treasury team and Cat Smith (Lancaster) dealing with young people.

St Helens MP Conor McGinn, born in Northern Ireland during the Troubles, is Shadow Security Minister; while Ellesmere Port’s Justin Madders takes on the task of monitoring Public Health where so many questions will be asked when the virus has passed. His colleague in Chester, Chris Mathieson will be the new spokesman on media policy.

Manchester’s Lucy Powell is the new Shadow Business Minister while neighbour and Urmston MP Kate Green deals with child poverty. Mike Kane, representing Wythenshawe has the important job of Shadow Transport Minister.

Over on Merseyside, Wirral West’s Margaret Greenwood will shadow schools and Alison McGovern, sport, not the best use of her many talents in my opinion. Bill Esterson (Sefton Central) covers Overseas Development under Emily Thornberry who should have been sacked.

Kate Hollern will use her experience as leader of Blackburn Council to shadow local government while Mike Amesbury (Weaver Vale) has another important portfolio in housing.

They will all have an uphill task to make names for themselves in the current circumstances and following Labour’s massive defeat, but we will see who takes their chance.

NEED FOR CLARITY

SUCCESSION PLANNING

It has been truly shocking to see such a vibrant personality as Boris Johnson laid low by Covid -19. We all wish him well for a full recovery.

There has been unrealistic optimism about an early lifting of the draconian restrictions on our lives. It will be well after the peak when that happens, not when the death rate is increasing, and the infection rate figures show no definitive trend. Furthermore, First Minister Raab and his colleagues are not going to take such a decision in the absence of Boris Johnson in the near future. If the Prime Minister faces a long period of rehabilitation, then things may change because a balance will need to be struck between health protection and the catastrophic damage that business and the economy is enduring.

The incapacity of the Prime Minister has raised questions about how we handle such eventualities. We should have a clearer system to handle the current situation as they do in the United States. Our unwritten constitution makes this difficult, but a Deputy Prime Minister should be appointed each time with three of four backups. The circumstances under which all powers are temporarily transferred should also be defined. Intensive care should be on one side of the line but holiday leave on the other.

Dominic Raab seems a little diffident about assuming his powers. This may be because of his character, out of respect for Boris Johnson or because he knows that Michael Gove would have been doing the job if he hadn’t undermined Johnson’s leadership bid in 2016.

IT FEELS DIFFERENT.

Keir Starmer’s election as leader of the Labour Party was always going to be completely overwhelmed by the virus crisis. It was the same for Iain Duncan Smith, who’s election as leader of the Tories in 2001 coincided with 9/11.

Even if last Saturday had been a slow news day, it is unlikely the Labour leadership result would have commanded that much attention This is partly because it will take years for Labour policies to really matter to voters and also because Sir Keir is not an inspirational person.

However, he is a step in the right direction. If it takes dull determination to turn the Labour Party around, so be it. He has the authority to do it. Continuity Corbyn candidates were decisively beaten in the leadership, deputy leadership and National Executive elections.

He has begun well by reaching out to the Jewish community and constructing a Shadow Cabinet mostly made up of sensible Labour people.

It is good to see Stalybridge MP Jonathan Reynolds (Work and Pensions) and Oldham’s Jim McMahon (Transport) get substantial jobs. Lisa Nandy has been given a very senior post as Shadow Foreign Secretary which recognises her importance in the party’s hierarchy. My only quarrel is that it doesn’t play to her strengths. Communities and Local Government would have given her a chance to develop the themes she stressed in the leadership campaign of reconnecting the party and its voters, particularly in the North