CAMERON’S RECKLESS GAMBLE

This week France and Germany celebrated the 50th anniversary of their reconciliation after a century of war and carnage. Britain, which shed much blood to make peace possible, signalled that it didn’t want to retain its place in the triumvirate shaping the destiny of Europe. David Cameron prefers us to have a role yapping ineffectively on the sidelines.

 

The Prime Minister knows that he has unleashed a process that could do the most profound damage to Britain’s economy. He’s done it to appease his party that has become obsessed with the issue. It will do him no good. If he wins the next election, he will attempt to undertake a major renegotiation of our membership terms. He will substantially fail despite the German Chancellor’s conciliatory tone at the moment. However Cameron will pretend that the scraps that he gets are a good enough reason to vote yes in the referendum. He will be ridiculed by UKIP and half the Tory Party who will campaign manically for their once in a lifetime chance of getting a no vote. They will be egged on by the Murdoch press and I fear the British people will vote to come out.

 

Long before 2018 and the start of the vast and messy task of disentangling ourselves from the EU, the damage will already be done. Indeed it is probably starting today. In some boardroom in Europe or Asia a company will be putting on hold a long term decision to invest in or trade with Britain. They will be doing this because there is total uncertainty about what Britain’s business environment will be like by 2020, detached from Europe.

 

Great uncertainty surrounds Cameron’s shopping list but we can get a hint from looking at the demands of the influential Tory “Fresh Start” group. It includes the directives on working time, temporary workers, transfer of undertakings, health and safety, rights to information, parental leave, employment protection for part time workers and equal pay.

 

There are two big problems with that list. Firstly they are at the heart of the Single Market. They ensure that all members of the EU compete fairly. There is not a cat in hell’s chance that our partners are going to allow us to employ cheap labour on short term contracts to gain an advantage for British goods.

 

The second problem is this. Do you want Britain to return to a situation where hospital doctors work a hundred hours a week, you lose your job when one firm takes over another, where corners are cut on health and safety, where parental leave may be cut, where bosses are free to discriminate against women over pay and part time workers are exploited?

 

That’s often what is meant when people vaguely talk about “Brussels red tape”. What they really want is to return to the days when workers could be rampantly exploited. They cry that employers are reluctant to take on staff because of all this “red tape”. Really? Have you noticed this week’s employment figures?

Bosses seem to have weathered the recession and lived “the red tape” without unemployment going over three million.

 

I am not misty eyed about Europe. There is a lot that needs changing in the Common Agricultural Policy, fishing quotas, and strengthening the European Parliament. If Cameron wants to be really macho he should get tough on the ridiculous nonsense of the MEP s traipsing off to Strasbourg once a month.

 

The Tory Party will go quiet for a while on Europe, but UKIP will still offer the clearer path to leaving. The Lib Dems have offered an in/out referendum in the past but I can’t see them backing Cameron’s approach.

 

Labour worry me deeply on this issue. The pressure on Ed Miliband to offer an in/out referendum in 2015 will be intense. The confusion this week after Cameron’s speech was not good. The party should have the courage to say that while it will constantly look for reform, it would only offer a referendum if it was proposed to transfer new powers to Brussels. That legislation is already on the statute book.

 

It is clear David Cameron knows we need to stay in the EU but he is attempting to appease people who will never be satisfied until we are out.

 

It would now be best for Labour to win the next election and for the Tory Party to reform itself in opposition. The Eurosecpticshould join UKIP and the rest form a modern Conservative Party prepared to govern Britain playing its full part in the EU and eventually the Euro zone too.

BAE MERGER DEAD… INFRASTRUCTURE LIVES!

The Tory conference hall in Birmingham was a place to go for a snooze (except when The Blonde Mop was speaking). But on the fringe there was plenty going on affecting every business in the North West.

 

Despite the BAE/EADS merger collapsing and the West Coast rail franchise descending into back biting and law suits, there was still a determination for the region to defy the recession with infrastructure projects.

 

There were lively fringe meetings put on by Atlantic Gateway, United Utilities and BAE, all stressing that they wanted to help the government grow its way out of the recession. Liverpool 2 Port Terminal had a prime location for its stand and there was news that HS2 is to be speeded up with plans for its route into the North West being published in the next few months.

 

WHAT NOW FOR BAE?

 

The BAE/EADS merger drama was unfolding as the Tory conference was getting under way. The Prime Minister and the Defence Secretary Philip Hammond were in Birmingham rather than in their normal power centres in Whitehall. On Monday night BAE hosted a long arranged fringe meeting and had to listen to Tory MPs and MEPs claiming BAE were about to be crushed between French and German interests if the merger went ahead. The BAE representative told us the proposed merger was “an opportunity not a necessity”.

 

By Tuesday German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s representative had called David Cameron in his hotel suite in Birmingham to indicate her wholesale objection to the deal.

 

This left North West Tories from Lancashire and Cumbria at the conference worried about the future of BAE. There was widespread criticism of the company’s senior managers who had been on the back foot since a leak had forced them to reveal a half-cooked agreement. Once the plans had been revealed BAE should have gone on the offensive selling the merits of a defence-civilian plane business link up. Instead they spent weeks on the defensive as criticism of the merger mounted.

 

Now the workforce at Warton,Salmesbury and Barrow are worried about the future for BAE in a world where defence orders are shrinking. Unions have attacked what they claim is a lack of a defence strategy by the British government.

 

ATLANTIC GATEWAY

 

If defence jobs are under threat in the northern part of our region, perhaps we need to look south to the arc of development potential stretching from Manchester Airport along the banks of the Mersey to Liverpool.

 

Atlantic Gateway held a fringe meeting in Birmingham to get over the message that 250,000 new jobs could be created from £14 bn of investment in everything from the Northern rail hub, Daresbury Science Park, the new Mersey bridge and the Liverpool/Wirral Waters project. Added to this the area has three enterprise zones and the Liverpool 2 Port Terminal which aims to attract freight that currently comes through Southampton and Felixstowe with ultimate destinations in the North.

 

Dennis Bate of Bovis LendLease said the Atlantic Gateway was just the sort of big scale project that wealth funds were looking to invest in. He told representatives that the era of looking to government for big money was over.

 

The meeting was going well until the new leader of Cheshire East Council Michael Jones cast doubt on Manchester and Liverpool’s commitment to Atlantic Gateway. It is true that in the past Manchester Council’s Chief Executive Sir Howard Bernstein has been less than enthusiastic about the concept but everyone agreed that unity was essential in backing big scale investment to counter the over heated London economy. How else can we compete with the capital which has at its head a man who dominated the conference?

 

THE BLONDE MOP

 

That is apparently what David Cameron called Boris Johnson just before the latter he descended like a whirlwind on the conference.

 

Just as I wasn’t carried away by the media euphoria that surrounded Ed Miliband last week, nor was I impressed with the Prime Ministerial credentials of Boris. I rarely queue to get into meetings these days, but I did for Boris because he is interesting and entertaining. But is he really equipped for the hard grind of decision making that the office of Prime Minister requires? David Cameron’s speech had few jokes but he’s taking the tough decisions.

 

The truth is Boris beat a tired Ken Livingstone in the Mayoral election. He was a great cheerleader for the Olympics but, as he himself acknowledged, the success was down to excellent teams in the Olympic organising bodies.

A BBC poll of conference delegates yielded quite a close result when they were asked who their next leader should be. 60% said Boris 40% backed anyone else. The latter is quite a high figure and suggests that the Conservative Party is not wholly caught up in the Boris mania.

WILL MANCHESTER VOTE YES TO ELECTED MAYOR?

MANCHESTER REFERENDUM

A very senior contact within Manchester Town Hall told me this week that there would be a three to one vote against having an elected mayor in Thursday’s referendum. But is that right?

With Liverpool set to elect Joe Anderson to this powerful post, will its big rival want to be left behind?

Most people thought Salford would reject the concept in its January referendum but although the turnout was small, I understand that in every ward there was a yes vote. That shows widespread though limited support for the idea.

That Salford is to get its local champion might be a good reason for Manchester to follow suite. The ten councils of Greater Manchester have come together in a Combined Authority sinking their local differences in the interest of all. There is concern that the Salford mayor waving his mandate from the people could destabilise things. Better then that Manchester has an elected mayor too.

Now let’s look at the candidates on offer in the two cities that are having mayoral votes on Thursday.

 

SALFORD MAYOR ELECTION

In Salford Labour’s candidate Ian Stewart was not a happy bunny when he lost his Eccles parliamentary seat in boundary changes in 2010. But he benefited from internal opposition to council leader John Merry to gain the nomination. He is almost certain to win and will be a doughty fighter for Salford, although his complete lack of local government experience is causing anxiety.

The two other major parties have good candidates who have served Salford well over the years. Norman Owen for the Lib Dems put a big dent in the Labour majority some years ago, but faces the problem that good work on the ground may count for little when set against his national party’s unpopularity.

Being a Conservative in Salford is never easy but Karen Garrido has battled on, often being a lone voice on the council. Her slogan in this campaign is “Trust the People”. They are unlikely to give her the answer she wants.

UKIP was ahead of the Lib Dems in one recent national opinion poll. In Salford its candidate, Bernard Gill, is claiming the money spent on regenerating The Crescent gateway to the city is a waste of money. Meanwhile the Green’s Joe O’Neill wants to cut the number of Salford councillors by a third, a policy that has merit with an elected mayor in place.

Of the other candidates, the independent Paul Massey stands out. He’s served time for a serious assault but claims his experience of the criminal world will serve the people of Salford well. David Cameron said he wanted a different type of person to come forward for elected mayor rather than the usual suspects. It’s unlikely he had Mr Massey in mind.

 

LIVERPOOL MAYOR

In Liverpool Labour’s Joe Anderson has dominated the mayoral race. He swept to power two years ago and as the Liberal Democrats have collapsed,Anderson has forged ahead with a business friendly agenda to promote the city’s economy for too long dependent on the public sector.

He has bitterly criticised the government’s cuts but readily embraced a city deal which he claims will restore some cash to the city as well as giving the elected mayor power over new improvement zones.

So keen was he to gain the fruits of the city deal that he got the council to scrap a mayoral referendum and move straight to a vote for mayor.

Anderson may win on the first ballot but it is worth mentioning that these elections are being run under a system called the supplementary vote. People can put an x in the first column of their ballot paper for their first choice and an x in the second column for their second choice.

If a candidate gets 50% of the first preference votes he is elected. If not the second choice votes for the top two candidates are counted. In theory the second candidate could overtake the first candidate in the run off.

The problem with this system is that to make your second choice count you have to guess who the top two candidates are going to be.

It is quite hard to work out who is going to finish second to Joe Anderson.

The Lib Dems have the highly experienced councillor Richard Kemp who could credibly run the city. The Conservatives have  businessman Tony Caldera. He won’t win this race but if David Cameron wants to do something about the “posh boy” image of his party then he should get  Tony into parliament double quick. From a market stall in Kirkby, he now runs a multi million pound soft furnishing business. His friendly and articulate manner will take him far.

Then there is my former BBC producer and friend Liam Fogarty. He has campaigned for ten years for an elected mayor against entrenched opposition to the idea from the political establishment. He is passionate about Liverpool and would seek consensus from a whole range of people about the city’s future direction. The question is would he have the stomach for the rough and tumble of city politics? He certainly merits consideration for a second choice vote.

There are two other candidates with good Town Hall experience standing. John Coyne for the Greens and Steve Radford for the Liberal Party.

Even with 12 candidates standing there isn’t a single woman. The last I would wish to highlight is Tony Mulhearn. The Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition candidate has stuck to his principles ever since he was expelled from the Labour Party for his membership of Militant in the eighties. I admire him for that and his vote may be stronger than people imagine in the light of George Galloway’s success in Bradford.

EUROFIGHT ON AND MANCHESTER “YES” TO MAYOR?

The aerospace industry is vital to the North West economy, so the chance to partly assemble 126 Eurofighter Typhoon jets for the Indian Air Force must be fought for.

On a visit to Westminster this week I gained evidence that much is going on behind the scenes even though preferred bidder status has been given to the French.

Ben Wallace, the MP for Wyre and Preston North, along with his colleague Mark Menzies (Fylde) met the Prime Minister on Monday. Eyebrows had been raised when news came through that the French had stolen a march on us, because David Cameron visited India with a big trade delegation soon after coming into office.

Now more details are emerging about the situation which could have implications for the workforce at Salmesbury, Warton and beyond. The strength of the French bid apparently lies in their tie up with the Reliance Group, India’s largest private sector conglomerate. With annual revenues of $58bn it is far larger than Tata, the Indian company which owns the Jaguar plant at Halewood.

However this deal is far from done and with David Cameron on the case, efforts will be made to expose the weaknesses of the French position. I’m told Reliance has no track record in aerospace and there is very little detail on price which could be significant as the French are desperate to get a foreign order for their Rafale jet. 700 of the Eurofighters have already been sold.

Ben Wallace emerged from his meeting with the PM confident there was all to play for. Apparently in similar negotiations for these aircraft the preferred bidder has been overtaken on six occasions.

Wallace is a Conservative MP in the tradition of former members like David Trippier (Rossendale) and Malcolm Thornton (Crosby). They are Tories that believe that to be successful in the North West; it helps to come from the liberal One Nation part of the party.

Wallace has been in the House since 2005 but faces a brutal internal party battle to maintain his political career. Boundary changes are likely to see him, Mark Menzies (Fylde) and Eric Ollerenshaw (Fleetwood and Lancaster) competing for just two seats.

During our time together at the Commons  we bumped into Wallace’s neighbour Jack Straw (Blackburn). Jack seems to be almost equally concerned aboutIranand Blackburn Rovers these days. He feels his successor as Foreign Secretary, William Hague, is underestimating the growing crisis surrounding Iran.

On the crisis at Ewood Park Jack had made an unusual move for an MP, in calling for manager Steve Keen to go. He seemed unimpressed when I remarked that Rovers had been doing a bit better recently.

Around the Commons corridors much of the talk is about elected mayors and Police Crime Commissioners. Ben Wallace told me he’s lining up an ex-soldier colleague of his to contest the position for the Lancashire Police Authority.

On the mayoral front I had an interesting chat with former Labour Minister and Wythenshawe MP Paul Goggins. There has been a general feeling that Manchester will vote “no” in the May referendum on whether to have a directly elected mayor with council leader Sir Richard Leese being against the idea.

However Goggins does not rule out a “yes” vote in Manchester pointing out that in neighbouring Salford last month every ward voted “yes” in a referendum triggered by a local businessman. So although the turnout was low, support was consistent across that city.

Following the “yes” vote, candidates have piled in to be the Labour nominees. The former Eccles MP Ian Stewart, has been joined by Salford council leader John Merry and former Labour National Executive Committee member Peter Wheeler.