BUDGET EXPOSES BREXIT MADNESS

 

 

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BREXIT WOES.

In his Budget the Chancellor set aside three billion pounds more for the mounting cost of Brexit. Three billion pounds that could have been spent on the NHS (as promised by the Leavers) being put aside for more lawyers and civil servants to deal with the complexity of leaving. Being put aside to build huge car parks at Dover to cope with the hundreds of lorries held up by customs controls. And let us not forget the £40bn exit bill.

But Brexit is hitting us in a far more serious and widespread way. Look at the woeful forecasts for growth and productivity. It is true that these problems pre-date the EU Referendum, but I suggest the dramatic worsening of the forecasts are related to the uncertainties of Brexit and the perception that the UK is cutting itself adrift from the EU, many of whose members are in the Eurozone where the currency has strengthened considerably in the last year.

It is almost too late for the British people to wake up and turn against Brexit. The warnings are there for anyone who wants to see. This week the European Banking Authority and European Medicines Agency were relocated out of the UK. The latter is the most serious and will be a blow to our pharmaceutical industry quite apart from the fact that we will need to create our own expensive drug regulation body. The government should have faced far more criticism for this. They thought the future of these agencies would be part of Brexit bargaining. The arrogance! The ignorance! It was never going to be possible to keep EU bodies like these in a UK outside the EU.

Oh! but we will be playing on the global stage in the future say the Leavers. Is that the stage where the UK has just lost its place on the International Court of Justice?

PHIL SAVES THE DAY.

As I said last week, I respect the Chancellor. In a Cabinet of misfits his calm integrity stands out. After the Budget perhaps all the hysteria of him getting sacked and Theresa not surviving till Christmas will calm down.

This lot are in it for the long run. Locked into the messy Brexit process and tinkering with a weak economy, but still there. After all, where is the threat. Tory Remainer rebels probably lack the courage to torpedo Brexit and the government can always on Labour MPs like Frank Field and Kate Hoey to come to their aid. Meanwhile Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell struggles to convince us that Labour’s programme could be paid for without hugely adding to the National Debt. It pains me to say it, but the Lib Dems under Vince Cable seem to be fading away just when we need a strong party for Europe.

The Chancellor took some action on the immediate issues facing the country. Housing, Universal Benefit and the NHS but he is locked into Tory ideology by not sanctioning local councils to undertake a massive programme of house building. He is also averse to general tax increases, but why? A cross party panel of voters in Bury voted unanimously for such a move on Newsnight after the Chancellor had sat down.

Thank heavens the Chancellor has stuck with the £85,000 limit on VAT, but for how long will micro businesses be spared the bureaucracy of quarterly accounting. The moves on business rates have been generally welcomed but three-year reviews may be a mixed blessing, as will stamp duty relief for first time buyers. Will youngsters benefit or will house prices just rise. Council house building is the answer.

It now seems highly unlikely the Chancellor will be sacked now that he is “Eeyore No More” according to the Mail. So, the government is set to stagger on as the darkening days bring the reality of the consequences of Brexit ever closer.

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10 YEARS AND STILL COUNTING THE COST

 

On the tenth anniversary of the start of the economic crash, I thought it would be good to get an assessment of past and current consequences from people able to make unbiased assessments of the damage inflicted by the bankers’ and regulators’ irresponsibility in the early years of this century for which we mere mortals continue to pay.

The greatest financial crisis since 1929 not only caused major economic disruption, it has also considerably weakened political parties of the centre in Europe and America. People lost faith in politicians who had no idea about the casino practices of young city traders working for bank bosses asleep on the job.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies and the Institute for Government came together recently to assess the current climate in which people are trying to do business whilst still faced with the overhang from the 2007/8 crash. Gross Domestic Product is little better than in 2008. We are 15% poorer than if a 2% growth rate had been maintained since 2008.  The tax burden is now at its highest since 1986.

The bankers’ folly has been paid for substantially through massive cuts in local government grant with the promise of 100% business rate retention now withdrawn. One interesting suggestion made at the seminar I attended was that local government was easy prey for ministers because a lower tier of politicians took the blame. Will elected city region mayors make a difference here? Then there are the benefit reductions. They will have led to eleven billion pounds of savings by 2022.

What about the headwinds? The growing and ageing population will absorb 1% of GDP by 2026 and Brexit could cost over three billion pounds a year according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies Deputy Director Carl Emmerson.

We have had sluggish growth rates since 2008 due to poor productivity. Would easing the 1% public sector pay limit help? It might, the 1% pay rise policy is now causing huge retention problems in prisons, hospitals and teaching. 

The election taught us that the need for continued austerity is under challenge. The low hanging fruit of efficiency savings has long been plucked. The government appears to have no strategy for sorting out the public finances in the long term. A full review is needed with some courageous thinking.

So here we are 10 years after the financial merry-go-round came to a crashing halt. We are still paying for it and some of the old practices are creeping back in.

The crash of 2007/8 was substantially triggered by companies giving mortgages to people who couldn’t afford them. The 2017 equivalent is car loans using the very popular personal contract purchase method. Experts fear many people are using this method to lease cars they can’t afford. Overall £200bn is now owed on credit cards, overdrafts and personal loans. What happens when interest rates rise, which they will have to, someday?

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TRUMP DYNASTY OR QUICK EXIT ?

 

IMPEACH AT YOUR PERIL.

After the latest act in the extraordinary pantomime that is the Trump presidency, some are concluding that The Donald’s impeachment is just around the corner. I think they are wrong and if by any chance there were right, moves to remove the President, America could face widespread social unrest.

“It’s the economy, stupid”, was the quote hung on the Clinton campaign HQ in 1992 to keep everyone focused on what mattered. It is the same today. It is easy to get distracted by the comings and goings from the White House, but the American economy is doing well under Trump. The Dow Jones Index is at record levels, more jobs are being created, business confidence is high and growth for the year is predicted to be 6%.

Trump’s supporters in middle America either don’t care about the Russia scandal or see it as the liberal elite trying to get their hero. They voted in anger for Trump last autumn and would likely take to the streets if impeachment proceedings were started. That eventuality is unlikely anyway because both Houses of Congress are controlled by the Republicans. They are going to take some persuading to turn on their President despite his past strained relations with the party’s establishment.

So where does the Trump dynasty come from? I merely want us to think more widely about what might happen in America. It remains possible that the multiple investigations into the Russia business turn up some smoking guns that finish Trump or that his erratic behaviour becomes intolerable. It is also possible that the new Chief of Staff, John Kelly, will get a handle on the dysfunctional White House, Trump will quieten down and if the economy remains in decent shape, he could win a second term. After all there is no obvious Democratic Party challenger. Three women are being spoken of; Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, Michelle Obama (my choice) and Oprah Winfrey. Trump versus Winfrey would be a colourful race!

If The Donald successfully serves two terms, watch out for his daughter Ivanka who has far more political skill than her father. There, I’ve given you a scenario where Trumps could be in the White House till 2033. What a nightmare, no its goin’ to be great, goin’ to be great!

LABOUR CHALLENGE ON EUROPE.

The excellent people at the British Election Study based at Manchester University have just published their analysis of June’s General Election. One of the most striking findings was that Labour picked up substantial support from Remain voters. This despite the fact that the party’s position on Europe was, and still is, opaque and the leader Jeremy Corbyn has always resented the EU rules that prevent state intervention to protect failing industries unfairly. Despite also the clear offer from the Lib Dems of a second referendum

The vagueness is skilful politics to try to keep on board northern Labour voters worried about immigration and southern ones who want either a soft Brexit or none. On the latter point, a recent survey funded by the Economic and Social Research Council called the Party Members Project showed a majority of Labour members now want a vote on the final EU package. Jeremy Corbyn should be pressed to move to this position. If he refuses he will be exposed for the anti-EU politician he has always been.

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WILL CHANCELLOR HOLD HIS NERVE ON PAY?

 

LISTEN TO THE GREY BEARDS.

The minority Labour governments of the late 1970s were plagued with disputes with the unions over public sector pay. This Tory minority administration is facing the same problem. It seems that those who want to spend money the nation hasn’t got can sense the weakness and put pressure on the politicians.

I don’t envy Philip Hammond. It is an open secret Mrs May wanted to sack him. Now he is being publicly undermined by flaky Cabinet Ministers hinting that they favour easing up on austerity for nurses and council staff. One would expect the Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt to be in favour of higher pay for NHS staff, but other ministers who’ve sought to pull the rug out from under the Chancellor include right wingers like Defence Secretary Michael Fallon and Transport Secretary Chris Grayling.

Those coming to the aid of Spreadsheet Phil are largely from the elder statesmen category. They include former Chancellors Norman “je regrette rien” Lamont and Ken Clarke. They know what they are talking about but don’t need the assistance of Call Me Dave. The ex-Prime Minister David Cameron’s demand for pay restraint whilst picking up a tidy sum for a speech in Seoul was unconvincing to say the least.

So, let’s consider what the former Tory Chancellors say. They point to the continuing deficit and to the fact that increasing public sector pay even by an extra 1% is very costly. They also have their eye on the politics. Cabinet Ministers calling for an easing of the purse strings are panicking in the presence of Jeremy Money Tree Corbyn. The Labour leader has skilfully captured the public mood for a splurge after years of austerity. But he’s at least 60 seats short of ever being able to do anything about it. Jez we can. Now we can’t. Lest we forget the Tories remain in power.

What will happen if Phil gives in to the pay review bodies who will now all recommend hefty increases? The Tories will avoid some criticism for being stony hearted but could lose their reputation for economic stability.

Public sector workers are suffering from rising inflation and economic uncertainty, both caused by Brexit which brings me to my second topic….

LABOUR EURO REBELS MAY BE DOOMED.

Seven North West Labour MPs defied the whip last week to support our continued membership of the Single Market. They were Luciana Berger (Wavertree), Ann Coffey (Stockport), Maria Eagle (Garston), Louise Ellman (Riverside), Kate Green (Stretford), Alison McGovern (Wirral South) and Barrow’s John Woodcock.

They moved too soon. They made themselves vulnerable to the charge that they had reopened the split between Corbyn and the Parliamentary Party in the hour of Labour’s election success. But more importantly they needed to wait till public opinion swings more clearly in favour of having second thoughts about the whole Brexit project.

What they have done is expose the euro sceptic credentials of Jeremy Corbyn. Sacking members of his shadow ministerial team for their pro-European views is far more honest than last year when he masqueraded as a Remainer heading Labour’s half-hearted campaign to stay in the EU.

The problem for the North West Seven and the forty other colleagues who rebelled is that they are in a party whose formal position on leaving the Single Market is the same as the Tories. All the stuff about a jobs led strategy and staying as close to Europe as possible is for the birds.

We need an opposition party that wants to stop the Brexit madness. I’m having lunch with Vince The Cable next Tuesday and I’ll tell you what he thinks in my next blog here.

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