Tag: Jim Dobbin

OLDHAM BY ELECTION CHALLENGE FOR LABOUR AND UKIP.

 

The first eagerly awaited test of Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership of the Labour Party is likely to come next month. Party chiefs are likely to move quickly to fill the vacancy caused by the death of Michael Meacher. They won’t want UKIP to gain momentum (sorry to use that word, labour moderates) in a constituency perilously close to Heywood and Middleton where Nigel Farage’s outfit nearly beat them in a by election a year ago.

How will the Labour voters in this deprived working class seat react to Jeremy Corbyn. They have been content to elect Michael Meacher twelve times with thumping majorities and he was always on the left of the party being a close ally of Tony Benn when Labour was in a very similar position to where it is now in the 1980’s.

The choice of Labour’s standard bearer will be very interesting. On a personal level the leader of Oldham Council Jim McMahon has an important decision to make. He is a rising star and leads the Labour group on the Local Government Association. He is spoken of as a possible candidate for elected mayor of Greater Manchester in 2017. Unless a Labour government is elected and he rises to Cabinet rank, he would be more likely to have real power up here rather than at Westminster. McMahon may not want it or might not be selected. Momentum is the new Corbynista activist group in the Labour Party. Moderate MPs think there agenda is to start deselecting people who don’t agree with the Labour leader. How influential will they be in the choice of the Oldham candidate?

UKIP do face an uphill task in the seat. Meacher had a majority of nearly 15,000. It has a large south Asian population and the party is preoccupied with infighting about which pressure group is going to leader the EU Out campaign. Nevertheless a divided Labour Party with a poor candidate, an anti Corbyn backlash and a low turnout could produce a surprise.

I referred to Michael Meacher’s dozen victories between 1970 and this May but he began with a defeat. In 1968 the Wilson Labour government was deeply unpopular. So much so that Manchester City Council was controlled by the Conservatives! In a by election in this seat that summer the Conservatives won the seat beating the young Michael Meacher.

We do seem to be getting more than our fair share of by elections in the North West. This will be the fifth since 2010. Oldham East went to the polls after Phil Woolas was unseated in 2011. Tony Lloyd’s resignation to become Police and Crime Commissioner for Greater Manchester sent Manchester Central voters to the polls in 2012 and the deaths of Paul Goggins and Jim Dobbin caused further by elections in Wythenshawe and Heywood in 2014.

RECOVERY THREATENED BY REFERENDA MANIA.

 

 

BUSINESS TO SAVE THE UNION?

 

A sure way of destabilising the fragile economic recovery was for David Cameron to back not one but two referenda in the space of three years.Referenda that could reduce the UK, or what’s left of it, to a basket case.

 

I wrote some months ago that by the end of 2017 the United Kingdom of England, Wales and Northern Ireland could easily be preparing to leave the European Union. There was very little debate in England about Scottish independence, just a complacent feeling that the Scots would not vote yes.

 

Things are different now. English political leaders have been scrambling North stuffing Alex Salmond’s mouth with gold.

 

The last minute business revolt against the real prospect of an independent Scotland will probably save the day, but it will be a close run thing.

 

The experience of the last week might give people a flavour of what it will be like if we vote to come out of the European Union in three years time. With the world the way it is, this is no time to embrace separatism whether it is offered by the Scot Nats or UKIP. They offer a road to enmity and disruption.

 

So why have we come to the point where next Thursday there is the possibility of us losing the Scottish part of our British family? Alex Salmond and his deputy are very able politicians. They stand out partly because the major figures in the other parties all decided to ply their trade at Westminster leaving the B team in the Scottish Parliament. The SNP has played the patriotic card well, particularly with the young voters, who perhaps don’t ask the hard economic questions.

 

The referendum comes at a time of mass disillusion with conventional politics. “Give us something different” is the cry. In the European elections it was UKIP, next week it will be the SNP. In Scotland to use Mr Cameron’s words, they hate the f_____g Tories, they yearn for a more socialist programme than North London boy Ed Miliband is offering and the Lib Dems are seen as Tory lackeys in the Coalition.

 

Although Salmond has played his hand well, the gaping hole at the heart of his case has been exposed.

He relies on the claim that the Chancellor is bluffing about the currency issue. Perhaps he is. Perhaps “reasonable logic” would kick in as the enormity of disaggregating the two countries hit home and the negotiations got under way. But the mood of English people might not allow it. They may say “they voted for independence, let them get on with it.” A North West MP expressed those exact sentiments to me at Westminster this week.

 

But what if against the odds the vote is for independence? The Bank of England is poised for emergency action on Friday to stabilise the currency, and there will be calls for the Prime Minister’s resignation. We would face the prospect of electing a House of Commons next May where 59 MPs would be leaving within a year. And that hobbled parliament is meant to negotiate our future in the EU.

 

Its a great time to plan business investment!

 

LABOUR PANIC IN HEYWOOD AND MIDDLETON.

 

Jim Dobbin was a kind decent man and we all mourn his passing. My condolences go to his family. His death put Labour in a difficult position. They rightly wanted to respect family feelings which would normally require that the by election writ should not be moved before the funeral.

 

But the party fear that given enough time UKIP might be able to exploit voters who feel “left behind” by modern politics in this traditional Labour seat. They wanted to avoid a contest where the UKIP bandwagon, flushed by the inevitable victory of Douglas Carswell in Clacton on October 9th would roll on to Heywood and Middleton. Now both contests will be fought on the same day and UKIP’s resources will be stretched.

 

JUST JIM 118.

 

RECOVERY THREATENED BY REFERENDUM MANIA.

 

A sure way of destabilising the fragile economic recovery was for David Cameron to back not one but two referenda in the space of three years.Referenda that could reduce the UK, or what’s left of it, to a basket case.

 

I wrote some months ago that by the end of 2017 the United Kingdom of England, Wales and Northern Ireland could easily be preparing to leave the European Union. There was very little debate in England about Scottish independence, just a complacent feeling that the Scots would not vote yes.

 

Things are different now. English political leaders have been scrambling North stuffing Alex Salmond’s mouth with gold.

 

The last minute business revolt against the real prospect of an independent Scotland will probably save the day, but it will be a close run thing.

 

The experience of the last week might give people a flavour of what it will be like if we vote to come out of the European Union in three years time. With the world the way it is, this is no time to embrace separatism whether it is offered by the Scot Nats or UKIP. They offer a road to enmity and disruption.

 

So why have we come to the point where next Thursday there is the possibility of us losing the Scottish part of our British family? Alex Salmond and his deputy are very able politicians. They stand out partly because the major figures in the other parties all decided to ply their trade at Westminster leaving the B team in the Scottish Parliament. The SNP has played the patriotic card well, particularly with the young voters, who perhaps don’t ask the hard economic questions.

 

The referendum comes at a time of mass disillusion with conventional politics. “Give us something different” is the cry. In the European elections it was UKIP, next week it will be the SNP. In Scotland to use Mr Cameron’s words, they hate the f_____g Tories, they yearn for a more socialist programme than North London boy Ed Miliband is offering and the Lib Dems are seen as Tory lackeys in the Coalition.

 

Although Salmond has played his hand well, the gaping hole at the heart of his case has been exposed.

He relies on the claim that the Chancellor is bluffing about the currency issue. Perhaps he is. Perhaps “reasonable logic” would kick in as the enormity of disaggregating the two countries hit home and the negotiations got under way. But the mood of English people might not allow it. They may say “they voted for independence, let them get on with it.” A North West MP expressed those exact sentiments to me at Westminster this week.

 

But what if against the odds the vote is for independence? The Bank of England is poised for emergency action on Friday to stabilise the currency, and there will be calls for the Prime Minister’s resignation. We would face the prospect of electing a House of Commons next May where 59 MPs would be leaving within a year. And that hobbled parliament is meant to negotiate our future in the EU.

 

Its a great time to plan business investment!

 

LABOUR PANIC IN HEYWOOD AND MIDDLETON.

 

Jim Dobbin was a kind decent man and we all mourn his passing. My condolences go to his family. His death put Labour in a difficult position. They rightly wanted to respect family feelings which would normally require that the by election writ should not be moved before the funeral.

 

But the party fear that given enough time UKIP might be able to exploit voters who feel “left behind” by modern politics in this traditional Labour seat. They wanted to avoid a contest where the UKIP bandwagon, flushed by the inevitable victory of Douglas Carswell in Clacton on October 9th would roll on to Heywood and Middleton. Now both contests will be fought on the same day and UKIP’s resources will be stretched.