Tag: John Major

HAMMOND’S CHALLENGING DEBUT.

 

Turbulent times require grey politicians and we have two at the top of government. Theresa May has turned off the daily flow of government initiatives to keep the press happy. A good thing too, the constant announcements from the Blair, Brown and Cameron regimes rarely amounted to much and were initiated in the vain hope of distracting hacks from the real stories.

Her next door neighbour and Chancellor, Philip Hammond makes John Major look exciting. But that’s not a problem for me. There is so much uncertainty in the world that we need a cautious person in charge of the money and that approach is likely to inform next week’s Autumn Statement.

Business in the North will want clear indications around the new Chancellor’s approach to the uncertainties of Brexit. Leavers are crowing at the moment because the economy hasn’t apparently suffered from initial Brexit damage. Let’s wait and see. If Hammond is wise he’ll be preparing the British economy for slower growth and higher inflation as the folly of us leaving the EU becomes more and more apparent. He will be hampered in shaping our economic future by the total disarray that is being revealed within government about what future relationship we actually want with the EU.

On taking office Hammond moved away from his predecessor’s deficit reduction targets. Price Waterhouse Cooper predict a gap of £67bn this year, a huge figure but will it matter to the Chancellor? We seem to be in a time when politicians prefer to forget the legacy they are leaving to future generations. That certainly seems to be the case with the incoming Trump administration in America where he breezily talks about a trillion dollar infrastructure programme.

While the Donald deals with his crumbling bridges, Hammond has a number of areas crying out for cash should he wish to spend it. Adult social care is at the top of the list, followed by the NHS and then councils.

Anyone with eyes to see can observe the plight of Town Halls. Libraries and bus services are being closed in a desperate attempt to support the growing needs of the elderly.

Then there is the housing shortage which is so badly affecting the young. I say young but in many cases married couples in their early thirties are still not able to afford a home of their own. The levels of stamp duty are being identified as a problem that the Chancellor might wish to address.

Then there is the Northern Powerhouse and Transport for the North. The latter is becoming an increasingly important organisation headed up by the former CBI boss John Cridland. He gave an impressive presentation to the North West Business Leadership Team recently about his vision for improved connectivity involving east-west rail and road links and simplified ticketing. The government revealed new route plans for HS2 this week. That project is seventeen years away. Next week the Chancellor needs to support some shorter term wins along the lines of the Cridland plan. It will also be interesting if Philip Hammond mentions the Northern Powerhouse. It was frequently mentioned in Osborne budgets. Despite denials there remains an impression that the May government has cooled on the idea or pivoted to the Midlands Engine.

Wednesday will be an important one for Philip Hammond and could define his whole Chancellorship.

 

NEVER MIND BREXIT, WHAT ABOUT THE NHS?

 

 

NHS ON LIFE SUPPORT.

It will take something pretty big to knock Brexit off top spot for politician’s concern this autumn. Well I have a candidate, the National Health Service.

What brought it home to me was the decision to close the Accident and Emergency Unit of Chorley Hospital in Lancashire. They could not get enough doctors because of a cap on spending on agency staff. Three issues become obvious. The financial pressures on the NHS, the hand to mouth policy of employing expensive agency staff and the desperate decision to close a badly needed A and E unit. Nearby Wigan was overwhelmed as a result.

There are so many issues to be addressed I can’t list them all here but they range from the explosion in the numbers of elderly people, junior doctors in revolt over working hours, the price of drugs and the complexity of the commissioning process introduced by former Health Secretary Andrew Lansley.

We got by last winter because it was mild but the issue won’t go away.

TRUMPED.

It was tempting to think that this year of political upsets was going to end with Donald Trump heading for the White House.

The Republican Presidential candidate has just changed his campaign team for the second time. It begins to look like desperation. It seemed for a while that Trump would successfully tap into the “left behind” section of the electorate that is as big a factor in America as it is here.

However it appears The Donald has been rude to too many people and has increasingly become vulnerable to the belief that he is unstable and not up to the job.

Hubert Humphrey in 1968 and Gerald Ford in 1976 came back from similar August deficits to make the race close, but nobody has ever made up the poll lead currently enjoyed by Hillary Clinton.

God forbid a terrorist attack or more revelations about the Clinton’s past could still affect the race but at the moment the USA looks on course to elect its first female President.

UNHAPPY ENDS FOR PRIME MINISTERS.

Things have gone a bit quieter even in this turbulent political summer so we’ve a moment to contemplate the last Prime Minister who left office at the time of his choosing and in reasonable standing with the electorate. That man would be Harold Wilson who having won two General Elections in 1974 suddenly decided to retire in 1976.

Since then it has been a succession of woes. Jim Callaghan lost power after the Winter of Discontent. Margaret Thatcher was brought down by Europe and the Poll Tax. John Major lost office due to rows over the Maastricht Treaty (Europe again). Tony Blair became haunted by the Iraq War, Gordon Brown was defeated at the polls and for David Cameron it was Europe again.

Perhaps Theresa May will be able to reverse this pattern. There are few threats on the horizon at the moment that suggest her period of office ending under a cloud, but that’s what the other five may have thought during their honeymoon period.

 

MIDTERM UNPOPULARITY COMES EARLY

 

BREXIT DANGER.

With death on the streets around the European Union Headquarters building and the Budget shambles at home, it has been a bad week for those of us wanting a remain vote in June’s EU referendum.

The disgusting terrorist atrocities suggest Europe is falling apart under a wave of violence. The events in Brussels come hard upon the migrant crisis where the EU did not cover itself in glory.

People should realise that the economic arguments for staying in the biggest market in the world and the perils of the unknown offered by the Brexiteers, should overwhelm concerns about terrorism and migrants. But after the Chancellor’s bungled budget, will they?

Labour actually edged ahead in one opinion poll and that was even before Iain Duncan Smith resigned. It is a sign that the traditional mid term unpopularity suffered by all governments has come early. People may look at the most senior advocates of remaining in the EU, the Prime Minister and Chancellor, and decide to give them a kicking for the way they are running the UK, rather than think about the dangers of leaving.

HE TURNED UP THE VOLUME AGAIN.

Iain Duncan Smith has been a disruptive force in Tory politics for two decades. In the nineties he helped to force the sitting Prime Minister, John Major, the resign and stand again for his own job over Europe. He then became Tory leader in 2003 but showed no signs of avoiding a third successive defeat and was replaced a couple of years later. In government since 2010 he has been on a single-minded crusade to reform the benefits system, so single minded that he clearly has been a nightmare to deal with. Faced with the Chancellor constantly demanding cuts, it is surprising the resignation didn’t come earlier.

Neither Osborne or Duncan Smith have emerged from the events of the last week with much credit. Universal credit is a good idea but it should have been rolled out to over 5 million people by now. The current figure is 200,000. That is failure.

The other failure is George Osborne’s failure to hit any of the targets that he floats at election time to woo the voters. The cap on welfare, reducing the National Debt and the ever receding promise to get the books in surplus by 2020. Even in the Budget it was going to be achieved with some sleight of hand involving Corporation Tax receipts. Now his only hope is a booming economy will fill in the four billion pound black hole.

The retreat on things like welfare cuts and the tampon tax can apparently be accommodated according to the Chancellor which begs the question why disabled people were put through the ringer in the first place.

The one nation Tory Party theme is holed below the water line. The true face of George Osborne was shown in that nasty jibe about abolishing the Lib Dems. Pride always comes before a fall and whilst the Lib Dems are on a long journey back, Jeremy Corbyn’s handling of the budget crisis (not overdoing the point scoring) may ensure a better set of election results in May than he could have hoped for a few weeks ago.

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ENERGY CRISIS: JOHN MAJOR IS TO BLAME TOO

When we booked John Major to speak to us parliamentary journalists this week we were expecting some gentle reflections on his time in office in the nineties. Perhaps some thoughts about his predecessor Margaret Thatcher being a back seat driver or about the soapbox he used in 1992 to deliver the Conservatives last General Election victory.

 

But no, the former Prime Minister decided to wade into the energy debate with a call for a windfall tax on the energy companies. It was a reminder to all that the man who won a fourth term for the Conservatives is still around. He rarely makes speeches and generally avoids embarrassing the government but it was clear from listening to him that he was getting a lot off his chest.

 

MAJOR POWER CUT

 

But to return to the hot political topic of the moment, energy. I thought I’d ask Mr Major if he felt any responsibility for the current crisis. After all it is the long term failure of successive government to invest in our energy infrastructure that has left us with a perfect storm. Coal and old nuclear power plants closing, the increasing need to import expensive gas and rocketing bills.

 

Major’s government was in office about half way between 1961 when Britain opened its first commercial nuclear plant (and led the world with the technology) and 2023 when the Hinckley Point station announced this week will come on line. The early nineties would have been the time to plan for the future given the long investment lead times needed. With the frankness only available to an elder statesman John Major told me that he was “happy to admit to a million errors and failing to do anything about civil nuclear power was one of them.”

 

One can admire his honesty but be appalled either at the short sightedness of our energy planners or the cowardice of our politicians in the face of voters fears about nuclear leaks or spending money on projects that would not bring short term electoral advantage.

 

Anyway the new nuclear programme is now under way with the Chinese and French in charge. It should mean plenty of work for us in the north of England where many of the skills are located. Let’s hope the waste issue has been thoroughly thought through this time as we continue to incur the massive decommissioning costs of the old nuclear industry.

 

MAJOR ON WINNING IN THE NORTH

 

Apart from energy we were treated at the lunch to some old fashioned one nation Toryism. Mr Major declared that his party would never fight back in Leeds, Manchester and Liverpool by pandering to its core vote. He referred to the “silent have nots, I know them, I grew up with them.” He mentioned “lace curtain poverty” and said Tory policy had to be addressed to them.

 

His time as Prime Minister was undermined by Euro sceptic rebels headed by the current Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith. He criticised the way he was handling the benefit reforms.

 

In an unguarded moment in 1995 he had called some of his Cabinet colleagues “bastards”. Getting years of frustration off his chest he told us on Tuesday “it was true, they were.”

 

He ended with a defence of our membership of the European Union that Ted Heath would have been proud of.

 

We may not hear from John Major again for some time but his words will need to be heeded by David Cameron who most of the time is being pressed to the right.