Tag: Labour Party

BIGGEST CHALLENGE YET FOR THE LIB DEMS.

 

THE DISCREDITED CENTRE.

Britain is being run by a Prime Minister constantly looking over her shoulder at hard line Brexiteer Tories who want to not only get us out of the European Union but use the withdrawal legislation to dismantle many elements of social justice.

The Opposition is led by a left wing populist who promises the earth to public sector workers and students and who has skilfully captured the anti-establishment mood. However, a Jeremy Corbyn government combined with Brexit would have a hugely damaging impact on business and the economy.

So where is the centre ground when we need them? I’ll find some of them in Bournemouth this weekend under their new leader Vince Cable. The others may be in Brighton the week after at the Labour conference. You won’t see them on the platform, even Andy Burnham, the newly elected leader of Greater Manchester, is struggling for a slot. The moderate Labour MPs are being made to pay for their treachery against Jeremy Corbyn.

It is difficult for moderates in the Labour Party. They are embarrassed by Corbyn’s “relative” success. And it is relative, it was Labour’s third successive defeat. They have not won a General Election for twelve years. They want the party to oppose Brexit but are worried about breaking promises to the electorate and have a leader who is probably a secret Leaver. Then there is the Blair problem. The most articulate spokesman for their point of view is discredited in too many people’s eyes to get a real hearing.

Both the Labour centre, and the Lib Dems, are also burdened by the legacy of the financial crash of ten years ago. A moderate Labour government was in charge under Gordon Brown when it happened and the Liberal Democrats were part of a Coalition that used austerity to clear up the mess afterwards. The Tories are always expected to be tough on economics but the crash and its aftermath left Labour and the Lib Dems vulnerable to the populist rhetoric of Nigel Farage. He used the European Union as a lightening conductor for people’s mistrust of bankers, the EU and centrist politicians whose wishy-washy politics had let them down.

And yet my gut feeling remains that a majority of the British people, and certainly business, want centre ground politics. Economic realism with a social conscience and if we can sort immigration out, continued membership of the EU.

The Lib Dems are too weak at the moment for the Labour centre to take them seriously as a partner for a new party. Vince Cable’s task this weekend in Bournemouth is to show that they have a strategy to win back seats and be open to the idea of a new centre party that can offer an alternative to Brexiteer Toryism of hard left socialism.

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WILL THE GOVERNMENT END GIG ECONOMY ABUSES ?

 

 

 

 

The gig economy is nothing new. Before the Dock Labour Scheme of 1967, there was widespread use of casual labour in ports like Liverpool. Dockers depended on a tap on the shoulder to get work. The rise of the unions in the sixties and seventies forced back irresponsible bosses but the predatory instincts of capitalism are always waiting in the wings and have returned now with the gig economy.

Now before you fear I’ve been spending too much time with Shadow Chancellor and avowed Marxist John McDonnell, I should say that I believe private enterprise should flourish and make profits. Owners are entitled to benefit from their bright ideas and risk taking in setting up businesses and shareholders should get a return on their investment. But workers are also entitled to fair wages and secure employment if they want it.

A report was published this week by the former aide to Tony Blair, Matthew Taylor, which could have major implications for business, employees and “dependent contractors”. The last category is one we are going to have to get used to. It is the new name created by Taylor to describe the current position that former dockers found themselves in as they waited anxiously for a few hours work on the dockside.

Nowadays the demand of society is not for casually employed dock workers but for taxi drivers and delivery services. Digital technology has made it possible for people to gain casual employment by identifying a need on line. Many people want work that fits around their lives not employers. Rebecca Long -Bailey and the Labour Party need to recognise this before embarking on a crusade on behalf of workers who, when they look round, may not be behind them. She’s the Salford MP who is also shadow Business Secretary and says using Uber taxis is “morally unacceptable”. I prefer black cabs but I recognise that not everyone employed in the “gig” economy is trapped there by a ruthless employer.

Some are and that is why Taylor is right to call for good work for all with a baseline of rights and a ladder of progress. There is a need to distinguish between the genuinely self-employed and “dependent contractors”. Self-employed pay lower taxes in recognition that they don’t get pension and sick benefits. (There is no sign the government are going to look again at raising their National Insurance contributions). Meanwhile Taylor identifies “dependent contractors” as people working for employers who rely on zero hours, short hours or agency contracts when they should be planning their employment needs better. These workers should receive sick pay and holidays.

The reform would end the confusion which allows firms like Deliveroo to claim their workers are self-employed when in fact it is difficult for them to turn down work.

Over a million people are employed in the “gig” economy and they have contributed to keeping the employment figures healthy while we are in danger of heading into a Brexit economic downturn.

Whether the government will implement the Taylor Report is doubtful. The Prime Minister says she would need opposition support and Labour is already saying it doesn’t go far enough.

I promised to report on my lunch with Vince Cable. I didn’t make it due to a three hour delay on the West Coast mainline. Bring on HS2

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SHOOT THE MESSENGERS AND THE EXPERTS!

 

Any hope that the New Year would bring signs that we are not heading over the Brexit cliff were quickly dashed with the resignation of Sir Ivan Rogers. The UK envoy to the European Union became exasperated that the May government had no plan, was guilty of muddled thinking and that the British team to conduct the exit talks was seriously underpowered for the ten year task.

So in this post truth age we neither want to hear from experts or the messengers that bring them. As much as I support a second referendum on the ultimate package, I think our European colleagues would be so fed up with us by 2019 that they would want us out anyway. This must be the year when we try to reverse the process but there is no sign of the centre left coalition that would be needed.

Meanwhile the European Union and the wider world with which we are negotiating could change dramatically in 2017. We are about to see the most unpredictable change of power in America that anyone can remember. Donald Trump is certainly making his mark already. Ford’s decision to cancel a major car plant in Mexico and build it in Michigan shows that American business takes him seriously.

In Europe the question will be whether populism has peaked. They could triumph in Italy and the Netherlands but right winger François Fillon should see off Marine Le Pen and Angela Merkel is likely to see off her opponents in Germany.

In the North we will see the first elected mayors for the city regions of Greater Manchester and Liverpool.

It seems certain that Andy Burnham and Steve Rotheram will win but there will be interest in the size of the UKIP vote. The party’s new leader Paul Nuttall needs to show what policies, other than getting out of the EU, the party stands for. Will they develop credible policies on health, housing and crime to woo northern voters from the weak Labour Party. A parliamentary test will come in Copeland where another moderate Labour MP has concluded the cause is hopeless and walked away.

Good luck to Hull in its year as Capital of Culture. Let us hope it is a sign of tangible benefits coming to the Northern Powerhouse. Plans for trans Pennine rail improvements and single public transport ticketing need to move from the drawing boards to reality.

It will be Theresa May’s first full year in power. She is in danger of being completely overwhelmed by the Brexit process even though there are major challenges at home in the NHS, elderly care, housing and immigration. She may lose popularity but her political opponents are weak. Labour is seen as irrelevant by most people. The Lib Dems have only just begun the road to recovery and UKIP are untested on the domestic front.

On the world stage expect ISIS to be weakened but that could mean their battle hardened members returning to the West to inflict more atrocities in our cities. Meanwhile China will be keeping a wary eye on a possible unlikely warming of relations between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

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BREXIT OR RUNWAY BY ELECTION ?

 

FARRON’S BIG MISTAKE.

As I mentioned last week the decision to go ahead with a third runway at Heathrow is better for the North than the Gatwick option. Not as good as using Birmingham and Manchester, but the choice that first faced Harold Wilson’s government in the 1960s has been made.

But now we are going to have a hugely confused by election. Tory Zac Goldsmith has resigned as an MP because his constituency is under the flight path. He will stand as an Independent but won’t be opposed by his former party. Why are the Conservatives giving him a free passage? The bigger issue is the Lib Dems claim that this will be a by election about Brexit. They base their argument on the high Remain vote in Richmond at the last election. I am second to none in wanting a fresh vote on Europe but I’m pretty sure that Remainers will put their opposition to the runway above their support for Europe. The Lib Dems risk damaging the Remain cause if Goldsmith (who backed Leave) is re-elected. Brexiteers will claim a victory that will actually be about the runway.

A WOLF IN WOLF’S CLOTHING.

A few months ago I thought Manchester born Steven Woolfe could be the terror of the Labour Party in Northern England on behalf of UKIP. Without rehearsing the overused cliché about time and politics, Mr Woolfe has spectacularly disqualified himself from such an opportunity. In a matter of weeks he flirted with the Tory Party, was hospitalised in Strasbourg after an “altercation” with a fellow MEP, and finally quit the party calling it ungovernable.

The North West MEP is now reported to be living in Hampshire and sitting as an independent in the European Parliament. There is a recent precedent for a North West MEP changing colours but continuing to hold office. Saj Karim was elected as a Lib Dem MEP in 2004 but switched to the Tories in 2007. He was elected under his new colours in 2009 and still represents the region very well in Brussels. Throughout Karim lived in the North West and there was no question of him being able to do his job. Mr Woolfe should consider resignation if he is not going to live in the North West.

As Mr Woolfe slinks away, another North West MEP has emerged who might appeal to disaffected Labour voters. Paul Nuttall, a true scouser who tells it like it is, has thrown his hat in the ring. Nuttall is positioning himself as the middle of the road candidate in this faction ridden party. On the right is Donald Trump supporter Raheem Kassam and on the left is Tory lite Suzanne Evans.

It is tempting to hope that after all the leadership antics, UKIP will suffer the fate of most ultra right parties. But we live in strange times where many voters are so disillusioned with mainstream parties and candidates that they will ignore damaging behaviour in order to send messages to the establishment. It may happen in America and it could possibly happen here because of Labour’s problems.

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