OVER TO YOU BROTHERS AND SISTERS!

 

THE PART OF THE UNIONS.

The grip of Corbynistas on the Labour Party is now extending to the trade unions. As they assemble in Brighton this weekend for their Congress, very few unions are backing Owen Smith. They are the GMB, the Shop workers, Community and the Musicians. Unite The Union (I love the arrogance of that title, I bet it goes down well with the others) is remaining loyal to Jeremy Corbyn. The General Secretary Len McCluskey may be too far to the left for the taste of Middle England but he is facing a potential challenge from an even further left opponent when his post comes up for re-election. That helps to explain “the reality” (his favourite phrase) of the position of the biggest union of all.

I’ve had a look at the Brighton agenda and it is full of worthy policy debates on wages and conditions at work. But as the brothers and sisters sit through the debates they may like to reflect that they are wasting their time. They will continue to have an important role in defending workers rights under existing conditions but in respect of legislative change, they and Labour are impotent.

The unions created the Labour Party to form governments which could represent the interests of workers. The last one left office six years ago. Will Labour win in 2020 or even 2025? Unlikely. Why do they think Theresa May has ruled out a snap election? Because she is so confident of controlling this parliament with Labour divided, even with a majority of 12. She can afford to wait to get her 100 seat majority in 2020.

The unions need to put their financial muscle behind a new centre left party capable of winning power for their members.

TOWN CENTRE CRISIS.

I was sad to hear that the famous jewellers, Preston’s of Bolton, is to close. That proud town’s centre is in a real crisis with another traditional store already shutting its doors.

Emotional shop staff blamed the perfect storm of the Trafford Centre and on-line shopping. Downtown backs Business Improvement Districts in places like Liverpool. Bolton is not alone in facing a bleak future unless some imaginative steps are taken to find a new offer to counter the mega shopping and leisure centres and the computer.

GREAT PROGRAMMES.

The autumn TV season has got off to a great start. ITV’s Victoria plays fast and loose with historical facts (Melbourne was old and fat, not hunky) but the stand out programmes for me so far got less publicity.

Bake Off winner Nadiya Hussain was quite outstanding with her two reports on life in Bangladesh. Her natural open and friendly style, surely means a full career in television beckons.

The second outstanding programme was the latest look at Salford FC owned by ex United legends the Neville Brothers, Ryan Giggs and Paul Scholes.

Production teams have to gamble on who to follow as the season develops. They chose an out of form striker who couldn’t get a game but returned to score vital goals to secure promotion. Roy of the Rovers eat your heart out.

Follow me at www.jimhancock.co.uk

EU TAKES ON THE TAX AVOIDERS

 

BENEFITS OF SHARED SOVEREIGNTY.

One of the main arguments for the European Union and particularly its much derided Commissioners has been demonstrated this week.

The Commission’s demand that Ireland recover 13bn Euros from Apple is an excellent example of where a supra national organisation can bust cosy deals between nation states and multinational companies in the interests of ordinary people who pay their taxes.

Brexiteers go on and on about sovereignty and “taking back control”. I’m happy with shared sovereignty if it empowers the Commission to take the interests of all the people of Europe into account. Multinationals like Apple are more powerful than many individual countries. They can exert massive influence by threatening to relocate. Middle ranking countries like Ireland have found themselves in hock to Apple and don’t like the ruling. Ireland is normally a “good European” and rightly so. EU membership has moved it from an agricultural backwater into the high tech world of the 21st century. But its reaction to this ruling is very “non communitare”, suggesting the EU has got it right. And so they have. For Apple to pay virtually no tax on its European profits from 2003-14 is to deprive governments and people millions of pounds that should be spent on public services.

Starbucks, Amazon, Fiat, BP and McDonalds are all in the EU Commissioners sights. None of them are too big for the EU representing 500 million people or 435 million if we are foolish enough to actually leave.

LEADERSHIP ELECTION THAT DOES MATTER.

The Labour leadership election is getting acres of coverage not because it will produce a possible next Prime Minister but because the media is fascinated by the corrosive campaigns being waged by Jeremy Corbyn and Owen Smith.

Because of the implosion of the Labour Party it is quite possible that UKIP will provide an attractive alternative to millions of Labour’s former supporters in the north of England. Therefore we should pay some attention to the battle to succeed Nigel Farage.

It is a bit of a shambles and in normal times one could conclude that this would mean the party vanishing into obscurity having secured the Brexit vote and being incapable of emerging from the shadow of its effective former leader Nigel Farage. But a word of caution is needed. Most people don’t follow the ins and outs of politics and however messy the process, when one of the five candidates is elected as the next leader of UKIP, they may get support because of the depth of disillusionment with Labour.

The outstanding candidate is Diane James, a UKIP MEP for the South East. However she’s refusing to attend hustings with the other four contestants suggesting she may lack the ability to bring this fractious party together.

It is surprising who isn’t standing. Steven Woolfe, a NW UKIP MEP, would have been a good leader but then it emerged he failed to disclose a drink driving conviction and didn’t get his nomination paper in on time. I’m amazed Former Deputy Leader Paul Nuttall, another NW UKIP MEP, didn’t go for it and Suzanne Evans the best candidate of all is suspended! You couldn’t make it up. There’s even Neil Hamilton. The ex Tatton MP is now a Welsh UKIP MEP. His would have been the ultimate comeback from the political graveyard.

THE RETURN OF CAROLINE?

The Green Party is also holding a leadership election. It is to be hoped that former leader Caroline Lucas will return, albeit in a job share. She wants to forge a progressive alliance with other parties willing to back electoral reform.

 

WHEN CORBYN WINS…….

 

 

THE UNIONS MUST DECIDE.

The selection of Steve Rotheram and Andy Burnham to be Labour’s candidates for mayor in the city regions of Liverpool and Manchester mean it is almost certain Jeremy Corbyn will be confirmed as leader of the Labour Party in September.

He will gain control of the party’s ruling National Executive (NEC) shortly afterwards following victories by the Momentum slate in this week’s NEC elections. The organisation was set up to buttress Corbyn support.

Following Corbyn’s victory, de-selection will face most of the Labour MPs who opposed him as the party becomes truly socialist as most of its huge membership desires.

Some of Corbyn’s opponents will seek to rejoin the Shadow team but we may see a majority seeking the Speaker’s recognition as the Official Opposition. This may be a prelude to the setting up of a new social democratic party. It would be a more credible organisation than the “Gang of Four” SDP that was created by Roy Jenkins, Shirley Williams, David Owen and Bill Rodgers in 1981. However its success will crucially depend on what the unions do with their money. There needs to be a big debate at next month’s Trades Union Congress about what they do. The unions founded Labour to win elections in order to put in place laws to help their members. When do they expect that to happen under Jeremy Corbyn? A huge membership is fine. Engaged, enthusiastic activists are to be admired but a programme of high taxes, weak immigration policy and unilateral nuclear disarmament will be rejected by Middle England in 2020 as it was in 1983.

ROTHERAM AND BURNHAM.

It is unlikely that Liverpool’s elected mayor, Joe Anderson will remain “heartbroken” for long following his failure to be selected to be candidate for Labour in next year’s election for Liverpool City Region Mayor. He has already indicated he intends to deliver on his second term programme. He was only re-elected in May to serve till 2020.

One had heard of plans for Liverpool Council to revert to a leader/Cabinet model next year. Deputy Mayor Ann O’Byrne had even been mentioned as the person to lead the city if Joe became City Region Mayor.

The Lib Dems are launching a petition to scrap the Liverpool elected mayor post. Good luck with that. Joe will be staying,no doubt pledging to work in comradely fashion with Steve Rotheram but perhaps secretly warning that his former North Liverpool friend will lead the city region into a Militant style confrontation with the government.

Rotheram has a job of reassurance on his hands. He stayed as Corbyn’s parliamentary aide, and hosted Corbyn’s recent rally in the city. He is seen as Corbyn’s man and will need to satisfy the business community that he will not wreck the work done by Anderson in bringing jobs to the city.

Rotheram has revealed a strong bond with Andy Burnham who won the Labour mayoral nomination in Greater Manchester. They are planning a North West Powerhouse campaign to stop the backsliding on the devolution project that seems to be happening under the new Tory government.

Burnham’s Scouse connections did him no harm with Mancs in the end. Remaining in the Shadow Cabinet went down well with the Corbyn dominated membership. His analysis that devolution has been too Manchester centric and the politics top down and closed off,is right. But just as Rotheram has Anderson to deal with in Liverpool, Sir Richard Leese is still leader of Manchester Council, having made some disparaging remarks about the post that Burnham looks likely to be elected to.

We are all presuming that Rotheram and Burnham are going to defeat their opponents next year in these Labour dominated urban regions. I just wonder in these turbulent times if that is entirely wise.

 

 

 

 

THE THREE RING PARTY CIRCUS

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The dramatic fall of Tatton’s George Osborne, the vile atmosphere in the Labour Party and the opportunity offered to UKIP by Nigel Farage’s departure; just sit back and watch the three ring circus that is British politics.

MAY BE.

For Northern business the most significant move of the new Prime Minister was the sacking of George Osborne. He was the only North West MP in the Cabinet and had driven the Northern Powerhouse (NP). We don’t know what the new Chancellor, Philip Hammond’s policy on devolution will be. We certainly know that leaders of northern cities are worried about

hundreds of millions of investment promises and possible signs of wavering on HS2.

Osborne deserved to go along with his buddy David Cameron. The two men were responsible for the disastrous referendum and that overwhelms even the considerable achievement of turning round the economy. Nevertheless Osborne knew the North and put the whole weight of his office behind devolution and the NP. If you have the Chancellor backing a project, it happens. if its an initiative of a more junior minister the chances of success are less certain.

We now see the broad shape of the May administration. The best we can say about the two at the top is that they are efficient politicians that get on with the job. Maybe that’s what the country needs. I remain to be convinced about May’s one nation rhetoric. We cannot even guarantee colour from Boris Johnson. They frown on tripwire antics in the Foreign Office. His roller coaster ride this year truly illustrates the unpredictability of politics. From loyal Remainer to traitorous Leaver, he was alarmed at his referendum success. Michael Gove detected this and sent him into political oblivion only for May to rescue him and rightly sack Gove from the Cabinet.

On the subject of the unpredictability of politics, look at the return of Dr Fox and David Davies. Fox left office in 2011 under a cloud and seemed like yesterday’s man. So did David Davies who lost the Tory leadership battle to Call Me Dave 11 years ago. Now they are deeply involved in ministries trying to get us out of the EU.

LABOUR PARTY’S VILE BATTLE.

I don’t want to say much about Labour this week. It is too upsetting to see the party of Clement Atlee, Harold Wilson and Tony Blair reduced to a complete joke. Actually it is worse. Anyone who heard the trembling voice of National Executive Committee member Janet Baxter describing the atmosphere in this week’s meeting would never get involved in politics. She seemed on the edge of a nervous breakdown. What must the staff in the Wallasey office of leadership contender Angela Eagle be doing? Waiting for the next brick through the window?

The foul language of Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell this week in his description of some of his fellow MPs gives the lie to the leadership’s protestations that they want a clean fight. The minority of violent Trots pick up the vibes just as racists on the right have used the Leave vote to intimidate Polish immigrants.

BEWARE THE WOOLFE.

UKIP should elect Steven Woolfe as their next leader. He’s a North West MEP and the party’s spokesman on finance. He is plausible and would not indulge in the bar room antics of his now departed leader Nigel Farage.

If UKIP can develop policies on health, housing, and social care as well as immigration, they could become a huge threat to Labour in the North and Midlands.

Let’s hope there is a strong centre left party to face them in 2020.