A CHANCE FOR A REAL E.U. RENEGOTIATION

E.U. TREATY TALKS

While the Lib Dems implode after their disastrous election results, let us look forward to the implications for next year. I have thought for some time that the Tories would be the largest party after the General Election. Labour’s under performance in the North last week has strengthened my view. Therefore there is a reasonable prospect that David Cameron will be in a position to try to renegotiate our treaty arrangements with the E.U.
Up to now I had thought that his demands would be unacceptably high even for our German and Swedish allies. This is because the Better Off Out wing of the Conservative Party is exerting increasing pressure on him. The result would be that Cameron would come back with a weak package of concessions that he would try, and fail, to sell in an in/out referendum in 2017.
However the scale of hostility to the E.U project across a large number of countries is such that the impetus for change has grown and Cameron may be able to get meaningful concessions. These could cover immigration controls, the working time directive, benefit tourism and the “ever closer union” clause of the Treaty of Rome. If all this happens, then the chances of the British people making the disastrous decision to come out of the E.U may be avoided. But don’t hold your breath. Hostility to the E.U is running high in this country.

 

EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT RESULTS IN THE NORTH

In the North West it was sad that Lib Dem Chris Davies lost his seat and that the Green’s able candidate Peter Cranie just failed to secure a position. The region would have been better represented by a wider range of MEPs.
Of those who were elected, I have to say the UKIP team impress me. I don’t agree with their policies but Paul Nuttall from Liverpool, the party’s Deputy Leader has developed well as an articulate and friendly spokesman for his party. Then there are the new North West UKIP MEPs. Louise Boers, the former Brookside actress, has a very warm personality and gave her best on the BBC’s Question Time this week alongside Piers Morgan and hard tackling footballer Joey Barton. Finally Steven Woolfe, the party’s economics spokesman will have a hard task when UKIP’s right wing policies on cuts and the health service come under scrutiny.

Labour’s team in the North West are all new and untried. Teresa Griffin has been preparing for this moment for four elections and said all the right things in her victory speech in Manchester Town Hall on Sunday night. Afzal Khan is a very pleasant man, let’s see if he can make a practical difference for the region in Brussels.
The big question mark centres on Julie Ward who has not held elected office before and hails from Bishop Auckland in the North East. She was originally in fourth place on the Labour list and thus very unlikely to win a seat. But the late decision by Arlene McCarthy to withdraw pushed her up to third place. There are fears in Labour circles that she may defect to the Green Party
For the Tories the feisty Jackie Foster starts her third term representing the North West and Saj Karim just held on to his place.
Labour topped the poll in the North West but in Yorkshire and the Humber, it was UKIP. With the controversial Godfrey Bloom gone their brand new MEPs are Jane Collins, Amjad Bashir and Mike Hookem. The other MEPs are all experienced Brussels hands. Linda McAvan and Richard Corbett for Labour and Tim Kirkhope for the Conservatives.

 

LOCAL COUNCIL RESULTS IN THE NORTH

Labour underperformed in key parts of the North, raising serious questions about their ability to win next year. Even the unambitious “35%” strategy to just get across the line is undermined with their 31% projected national vote share in these elections.
Failing to take Trafford into no overall control and to win in West Lancashire where the Mayor will keep the Conservatives in control, were major disappointments. Targets were also missed in Kirklees and Calderdale, although Bradford was won. In Leeds there were no Labour gains to strengthen the party’s majority.
UKIP found the North West hard going with a smattering of seats in Oldham, Hyndburn and Bolton but east of the Pennines the nine gains in Rotherham caught national headlines.
The Greens are now the official opposition in Liverpool, although their leader John Coyne tells me he may not occupy the Town Hall office reserved for him on cost grounds.
Let’s finally turn to the Lib Dems. There has been much reporting of their implosion in Manchester, Rochdale and Liverpool but in Stockport they will still run the council with ratepayers support and in South Lakeland they had no losses at all.
Next stop, the Newark by election on Thursday.

THE EURO ELECTIONS: THE EXIT ROUTE BEGINS?

THINK BEFORE YOU VOTE UKIP

Northern voters could begin the process of the UK leaving the European Union next Thursday. If that’s what you want, vote UKIP, send the Tories into a tailspin and expel the Liberal Democrat MEPs who have had the guts to stand up for the European ideal.

Be in no doubt these, usually ignored, elections to the European Parliament are very important. On the night of Sunday May 25th the North West and Yorkshire and the Humber could well return six UKIP MEPs and no Lib Dems. Nationally UKIP could win the election. Pundits will be predicting that their bandwagon could roll on to the General Election.

Tory backbenchers will panic. The pressure on David Cameron to ratchet up his demands for reform of the European Union (already large) will make them completely unacceptable to our potential allies in Germany and Sweden. If re-elected Cameron will fail in the renegotiation. He will still campaign for a Yes vote in the 2017 referendum and Britain will vote to come out.

People must have this scenario clear in their minds as they vote in these European elections. As I say if you want out you know what to do, but if you realise the damage our exit would cause Britain, then you need to halt the UKIP bandwagon before it gets started.

THE CANDIDATES: NORTH WEST

European stalwarts are standing down. Sir Robert Atkins was that rare breed, a pro European Conservative. He’s going, along with Brian Simpson who’s represented Labour on and off for 25 years. The shock departure for the party is Arlene McCarthy. The highly effective campaigner on issues like banking reform and mobile roaming charges made a late decision to call it a day.

The voting system is proportional. The number of MEPs a party gets will be decided by the strength of their support across the whole North West. Who gets elected depends on their position on party lists that have already been drawn up. The North West will elect 8 MEPs.

It is likely Labour will get 3 MEPs. Theresa Griffin tops their list. A Liverpool councillor in the 1990s, she has been fighting these elections for years. Afzal Khan, the former Lord Mayor of Manchester is likely to join her and probably Julie Ward.

The Conservatives will re-elect Jackie Foster who first went to Europe 15 years ago. There was some surprise that she topped the Tory list ahead of the higher profile Saj Karim. He was first elected to Europe as a Liberal Democrat in 2004 and since his defection to the Tories has worked hard on trade relations between India and the EU.

Now we come to the big question. Will UKIP do well enough to knock out Chris Davies, a Lib Dem MEP for the North West for the last fifteen years? UKIP are bound to get their deputy leader Paul Nuttall re-elected. The region will also elect Louise Bours a 45 year old actress from Congleton. Then the question is will the region give UKIP sufficient support to elect UKIP s effective economics spokesman Steven Woolfe?

The eighth person elected only needs around 10% of the vote and Davies will be hoping that the residual pockets of Lib Dem strength in South Lakeland, Pendle, Liverpool and Stockport will see him through, but it is likely to be close.

The Greens did well in these elections back in 1989 and the anti fracking movement might put Peter Cranie in contention with Davies and Woolfe.

My analysis presumes that the BNP leader Nick Griffin will lose his seat. His party is riven with factions and nearly bankrupt plus UKIP have stolen the agenda on immigration.

CANDIDATES: YORKSHIRE AND THE HUMBER

An extraordinary series of events means that only two of the six people elected five years ago for this region are offering themselves again under the same party colours.

Edward Macmillan-Scott defected from the Tories to the Lib Dems. The other Lib Dem MEP, Diana Wallace stood down on health grounds. Godfrey Bloom of bongo bongo land and sluts fame left UKIP, is sitting as an independent and is not offering his talents to the voters again. The BNP’s Andrew Brons fell out with the party leader, has formed another right wing party and is not standing.

With six places up for grabs, it is likely Labour will re-elect Linda McAvan and Richard Corbett, the Tories Tim Kirkhope and UKIP Jane Collins and Amjad Bashir.

The sixth place will be close between Alex Story for the Tories, Mike Hookem UKIP and Lib Dem Edward Macmillan Scott who has been in the European Parliament for thirty years and would be a real scalp for UKIP.

REGIONS MAKING A COMEBACK?

 

 

Can we hope that business people and politicians are once again thinking about regions like Yorkshire and the Humber and the North West? The Shadow Chief Secretary and Leeds MP Rachel Reeves told a Downtown event in the city a year or so ago that Labour would work with the Local Enterprise Partnership structure. But according to Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls, his colleague Lord Adonis is devising an Infrastructure Commission that will devolve power to regions as well as cities.

 

It is high time the prevailing doctrine that cities are the only drivers of the northern economy was challenged. Without a strong regional policy, towns around our big cities are going to suffer. Leading academics of my acquaintance, who support the cities agenda, openly say that people in places like Burnley are going to have to travel to Manchester to get a job in the future.

 

 

 

It was so refreshing to attend a North West Business Leadership Team (NWBLT) event where we had a chance to survey our excellence in science from Cumbria to Crewe. Present was the Director of the Department for Business Innovation and Skills North West. It is the only regionally based government body to avoid the insane culling of everything else regional by the Coalition when they came to office.

 

The NWBLT report won’t be launched until the end of next month. It is in draft form and further views are welcome, but the title will be “Exploiting the Excellence” England’s North West: Where World Class Science underpins wealth creating innovation. So you get the drift. It emphasises throughout, not only our heritage of scientific invention, but the large range of science based businesses that can take us forward with the proper support.

 

The region’s assets include advanced materials and cancer research in Manchester and Liverpool, cutting edge nuclear research in Cumbria, oil and gas research in Lancaster and world class astronomy at Jodrell Bank.

 

NWBLT Chairman Juergen Maier of Siemens called on government to make it easier for SMEs to access government funds. He added that leadership would be needed as market forces alone would not bring the region’s economy back to health.

 

Andrew Miller, the Ellesmere Port MP, who has done so much to promote science, spoke of the need for eco systems and catapults! The former refers to the need for businesses to cluster together and feed off each other’s expertise. The latter relates to innovation centres which can help get embryonic science companies off to a flying start.

Of course everything hasn’t been rosy on the North West science front. The decision to locate the 3rd Generation Light Source at Harwell and AstraZeneca’s relocation of its research facility from Alderley Park to Cambridge have been big blows.

 

Chris Doherty is responsible for the sale and redevelopment of the AstraZeneca site and had some interesting things to say about the company’s relocation decision. Apparently the reasons were far more social than economic. The new AstraZeneca CEO was from California and felt Alderley Park was an isolated place compared to the dynamic environment of Cambridge. Doherty said the site had become isolated from Manchester.

 

That’s the danger of the City Region policy as opposed to a wider strategy taking care to be aware of Cheshire, Lancashire and Yorkshire’s needs as well as Liverpool, Leeds and Manchester.

 

 

 

 

 

 

PAUL GOGGINS: POLITICS CAN BE NOBLE.

 

 

 

 

PAUL GOGGINS

 

It has been a sad start to the year for anyone who had the privilege of knowing Paul Goggins. In the often self serving murky world of politics, Paul was truly one of the good guys. His death at just 60 years of age has deprived Wythenshawe and Sale East of a caring MP, and the rest of us of an excellent parliamentarian.

 

In 1997 he had the task of filling the shoes of Alf Morris who’s reputation for legislation on behalf of the disabled had made him a legend. Paul soon endeared himself to the people of Wythenshawe, an area with more than its fair share of social and economic stress.

He held various posts in government, including Northern Ireland which benefited from his gentle style of handling thorny problems.

 

This hardly seems the time for a humorous anecdote but I relate it because it says everything about Paul.

In 2003 I had the task of introducing the new Politics Show North West. The BBC decided it would have a more relaxed feel than its predecessor Northwestminster. MPs would be invited to dress down a little for the Sunday chat. Paul was my first guest on the new show along with a Conservative who decided to ignore the new style and turned up in a blazer and tie. Paul decided on a casual jumper and joked afterwards that I had set him up to look like a student alongside the smart Tory. I can think of many politicians who would have been very pompous about the whole thing but not Paul. God rest his soul.

 

THE YEAR OF UKIP.

 

The by election in Wythenshawe and Sale East will be the first of a significant series of elections this year. Even before Paul Goggins died, UKIP, with unseemly haste,were canvassing their supporters for a candidate. They won’t win this Labour stronghold but their leader, Nigel Farage, has used his party’s strong performance in recent northern by elections in Rotherham, Middlesborough and South Shields to indicate that his support is not just from disaffected Tories. You can expect pictures of him swigging a pint in Wythenshawe Forum before long.

 

UKIP’s main aim this year will be to get as many MEPs elected as possible from Yorkshire and the Humber and the North West. Yorkshire will be interesting as it has the misfortune to be represented in the |European Parliament by the buffoons Bloom and Brons. Hopefully Andrew Brons of the BNP (and Nick Griffin in the North West) will disappear with the recovery of the Labour vote. Godfrey Bloom has been suspended leaving the way open for UKIP to be represented by Jane Collins and Amjad Bashir.

 

In the North West 8 European places are up for grabs. Labour will probably take 3,the Tories 2 and UKIP 2. The last place could be a fascinating tussle between the long standing Lib Dem Chris Davies and Steven Woolfe who could secure UKIP a third seat.

 

UKIP could well win the European elections in June, particularly if the press is full of stories about a surge of Bulgarians and Romanians to the UK. But what then? Will they be a serious force at the General Election? To be so they need to get a base in local government. So let’s see how they do in the council elections being held on the same day in May for a third of the seats in metropolitan areas of West Yorkshire, Merseyside and Greater Manchester.

 

It could well be that UKIP peak this year and then fade away. Let’s hope Labour don’t panic and promise an in/out referendum on the EU in the meantime.

 

WHAT IF BRAVEHEART WINS?

 

The other major vote will be on Scottish independence. A yes vote remains unlikely but we need to turn our minds now to the serious consequences for us all in the north of England should it go the other way.

 

The year will also see the new inquests into Hillsborough, the International Festival of Business in Liverpool, continuing debates over fracking and HS2 and the launch of Local TV.

 

I look forward to discussing all these topics with you.