Tag: Northern Ireland

BOTH SIDES SHOULD STOP THE EURO TRASH TALK

IDEAS FOR THE NORTH AFTER BREXIT.

It’s a shame that SAS (Strong and Stable) Theresa May and Jean Claude Juncker can’t stop the trash talking ahead of their Brexit fight. They should learn from the dignified approach of boxers Anthony Joshua and Wladimir Klitschko who avoided throwing chairs or making lurid threats against each other but delivered a huge success.

The UK government and the EU officials are as bad as each other. Mrs May’s ministers are adopting an arrogant and ignorant approach to the Brexit talks. But talk of bills escalating now to £100 bn from the European side can only serve to turn public opinion in Britain from a 52/48 divide to 60/40 for Leave. Very depressing.

If we do eventually leave, many questions about the future of the North will need to be answered. Among them are what is going to happen when we lose EU regional development funding and agricultural subsidies?

Common Futures Network (CFN) has been peering into the post Brexit world. It is an independent forum of economists, planners, housing experts, engineers and development interests.

In a report out this weekend they note that while Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have developed national frameworks, there is no equivalent for England. The report is right to say that the need to address the “English question” was demonstrated by the sharp divisions shown up last June between towns and big cities and the North and London. The destruction of the Regional Development Agencies and their replacement by hardly visible Local Enterprise Partnerships was exactly the wrong thing to do in my opinion.

The CFN report calls for a new regional development fund to replace the EU structural fund and for a comprehensive deal for England’s regions, in addition to its cities and city-regions. This is the right approach. This weekend newly elected city region mayors are starting their work in Merseyside and Greater Manchester. We must wait to see what they achieve and meanwhile turn our attention to the areas of the North outside these conurbations. The CFN report calls for a comprehensive rural programme, a need to identify new development areas to accommodate a population growth of 9 million by 2040 and a drive to manage the growth of the London megaregion.

Let’s hope the government has time to address these issues whilst it is arm wrestling Mr Juncker after the election.

CANDIDATES SLOTTING INTO PLACE.

Nominations close next week for the General Election and the parties have been rushing to choose candidates. Ironically it has been the Conservatives who’ve had most to do because their constituency chairs believed SAS Theresa May when she said there would be no election until 2020. Opposition parties feared she was fibbing and mostly selected candidates last autumn.

This week has seen Esther McVey become the candidate for Tatton. The constituency never fails to have a high-profile MP. Since Neil Hamilton was kicked out twenty years ago, he’s been followed by Martin Bell, George Osborne and now McVey. How her scouse vowels will go down in the leafy lanes of Knutsford remains to be seen.

Wirral West has made an excellent choice in Knowsley businessman Tony Caldeira who will have no rest from the campaign trail after running for Liverpool City Region Mayor.

Follow me @JimHancockUK

THIS SEVERED, NOT SCEPTERED,ISLE

MAY FIGHTING ON MULTIPLE FRONTS.

“Hung be the heavens with black, yield day to night. Comets importing change of times and states brandish your crystal tresses in the sky” Henry VI Part I.

It seems an appropriate quote for the week when most opposition MPs stood by whilst the government gained parliamentary authority for a hard Brexit from the EU. It was the week when Nicola Sturgeon followed the historic example of past Scottish kings who made trouble on the border when English minds were focused on the continent. It was the week when there was little progress in forming a Northern Ireland government but plenty of talk about uniting the North and South.

There is no doubt that we are in a period of great constitutional uncertainty, unleashed by last year’s EU referendum. That is not good for business in the North nor is the uncertainty caused by the about turn on National Insurance(NI) contributions. After the pasty tax debacle under George Osborne, will Chancellors never learn? A Budget is not a place to road test ideas, only to withdraw them. The near equalisation of NI was a fair proposal but it was also a breach of an election promise and against the Tory instinct to help the self-employed. It was always going to meet with massive opposition, particularly because Tory backbenchers feel they can throw their weight around because of the feeble opposition.

“NO PROBLEM WITH A REFERENDUM”.

Perhaps Nicola Sturgeon acted on Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s latest careless word stream in announcing her intention to try and trigger a second referendum on Scottish independence, although I doubt it.

It is a massive gamble by the normally able leader. Was she pushed into it by SNP zealots? More likely she sees Brexit uncertainty as the last hope for an independent Scotland. The economic case against it is growing as North Sea oil runs out and the Scottish deficit rises. Trading on the vote to Remain in Scotland and the huge uncertainty of the UK Brexit negotiations, Sturgeon wants the vote before the end of the talks.

She is likely to be disappointed. The Prime Minister is unlikely to follow the practice of the Spanish government who just refuse Catalonia an independence vote, but she will likely stall for time. It is most likely a second referendum will follow the UK’s exit from the EU if it is held at all. Much will depend on the level of justifiable anger among Scottish remainers.

The further problem for the SNP is that they tend to exaggerate the level of support they have for remaining in/re-joining the EU. The Commission has made it clear it will only deal with one state, the UK, during the talks. If Scotland were to become independent it might have to join the end of the applicant queue, join the Euro and face the opposition of Spain who don’t want to set a precedent for Catalonian independence.

That is one part of our unhappy state.

SINN FEIN’S SUPPORT POST BREXIT.

The fact that Sinn Fein have nearly got parity with Unionists in the Northern Ireland Assembly following the recent elections is another consequence of the Brexit vote. A united Ireland inside the EU is an increasingly attractive proposition for some waverers. That mood will only be strengthened if a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic is the result of the UK Brexit talks. Another part of our unhappy state.

OVER THE CLIFF.

Finally, we come to the UK where England plays the major part. Ministers make optimistic noises about how it is in everyone’s interest to allow economic reality to overcome politics in the talks. That wasn’t the case in the Referendum where people’s feelings about immigration and alienation overwhelmed the strong economic case for staying in.

Our European friends feel mightily offended. Expect an early and possibly decisive clash on the divorce bill.

Follow me @JimHancockUK

NORTHERN REVOLUTION: BRING IT ON

On July 4th Downtown is hosting a vital conference to discuss how northern cities like Leeds and Liverpool can accelerate change and economic growth. It is well timed if an event I attended at the Commons this week is anything to go by.

The Smith Institute and Regional Studies Association were posing the question “Where next for Local Enterprise Partnerships?” LEPs were set up in the wake of the wholesale destruction of regional structures by the incoming Coalition government in the summer 0f 2010.

LEPs were to be slim, local, business led organisations to drive economic growth. The problem was,initially at least, they had little money or structure and their targets were unclear. Over the last three years they have largely been left to get on with it. The result is that across the North of England LEPs have evolved in very different ways.

In Manchester and Leeds they have been able to take advantage of the combined authorities of the local councils. Liverpool’s LEP, after a slow start, inherited the infrastructure of the Mersey Partnership. In Cheshire and Lancashire the organisations are smaller.

Despite the good work they are doing, the big question remains are they fit for purpose in trying to close the North South divide. The conclusion of the Commons conference I attended was that they are not.

As a convinced regionalist I found the discussion frustrating. There was frequent mention of the need for the LEPs to work more closely together to create a critical mass to be effective. The logic points to a need for a strategic organisation across the North to take major decisions on transport, planning and infrastructure. That’s not going to happen under this government or a possible Labour administration who’ve said they will work with the “patchwork quilt” of local structures. How daft is that?

Reference was made to a recent Ernst and Young report on direct foreign investment into the UK. There was much rejoicing when the report came out that the North West had seen a 13% rise with Yorkshire not far behind. However the comparable figures for Scotland Wale4s and Northern Ireland were respectively 49%,244% and 71%. What do they have in common? Powerful, well resourced devolved government. Simon Alport Ernst and Young’s North West senior partner concluded that the closure of the Regional Development Agencies may have undermined the performance of English regions. Not may Simon, it did.

The Commons conference concluded that the government lacked a coherent regional policy with a bewildering patchwork of initiatives from the Regional Growth Fund to Enterprise Zones, City Deals to community budgets.

Andy Pike from Newcastle University believes the government is torn between centralism as it battles austerity and a commitment to localism. The result is that LEPs operate in a world of multiple actors which is time consuming and lacking in accountability.

There were other opinions. Nigel Guy from Leeds LEP saw no problem with different LEPs going at different speeds and wanted more power for the City Regions.

Blackpool MP Gordon Marsden was sceptical of the argument that powerful City Regions in Manchester and Liverpool could help his town. He recalled a conversation with Manchester Council leader Sir Richard Leese when they were battling over who would have a super casino. Marsden had told him on a good day the “Manchester” effect would stretch to Preston, on a bad day to Bolton but never Blackpool.

An important indication of government policy will come shortly in the comprehensive spending review when the Chancellor announces the size of the single growth pot for local devolved spending. Will London let go of enough money to make a difference up North? Don’t hold your breath.