Tag: Philip Hammond

HAMMOND’S CHALLENGING DEBUT.

 

Turbulent times require grey politicians and we have two at the top of government. Theresa May has turned off the daily flow of government initiatives to keep the press happy. A good thing too, the constant announcements from the Blair, Brown and Cameron regimes rarely amounted to much and were initiated in the vain hope of distracting hacks from the real stories.

Her next door neighbour and Chancellor, Philip Hammond makes John Major look exciting. But that’s not a problem for me. There is so much uncertainty in the world that we need a cautious person in charge of the money and that approach is likely to inform next week’s Autumn Statement.

Business in the North will want clear indications around the new Chancellor’s approach to the uncertainties of Brexit. Leavers are crowing at the moment because the economy hasn’t apparently suffered from initial Brexit damage. Let’s wait and see. If Hammond is wise he’ll be preparing the British economy for slower growth and higher inflation as the folly of us leaving the EU becomes more and more apparent. He will be hampered in shaping our economic future by the total disarray that is being revealed within government about what future relationship we actually want with the EU.

On taking office Hammond moved away from his predecessor’s deficit reduction targets. Price Waterhouse Cooper predict a gap of £67bn this year, a huge figure but will it matter to the Chancellor? We seem to be in a time when politicians prefer to forget the legacy they are leaving to future generations. That certainly seems to be the case with the incoming Trump administration in America where he breezily talks about a trillion dollar infrastructure programme.

While the Donald deals with his crumbling bridges, Hammond has a number of areas crying out for cash should he wish to spend it. Adult social care is at the top of the list, followed by the NHS and then councils.

Anyone with eyes to see can observe the plight of Town Halls. Libraries and bus services are being closed in a desperate attempt to support the growing needs of the elderly.

Then there is the housing shortage which is so badly affecting the young. I say young but in many cases married couples in their early thirties are still not able to afford a home of their own. The levels of stamp duty are being identified as a problem that the Chancellor might wish to address.

Then there is the Northern Powerhouse and Transport for the North. The latter is becoming an increasingly important organisation headed up by the former CBI boss John Cridland. He gave an impressive presentation to the North West Business Leadership Team recently about his vision for improved connectivity involving east-west rail and road links and simplified ticketing. The government revealed new route plans for HS2 this week. That project is seventeen years away. Next week the Chancellor needs to support some shorter term wins along the lines of the Cridland plan. It will also be interesting if Philip Hammond mentions the Northern Powerhouse. It was frequently mentioned in Osborne budgets. Despite denials there remains an impression that the May government has cooled on the idea or pivoted to the Midlands Engine.

Wednesday will be an important one for Philip Hammond and could define his whole Chancellorship.

 

CAMERON LAME DUCK ?

 

TWO TERM DAVE.

It’s been another week where the political coinage has been debased. A ludicrous Dutch auction of promises over VAT and National Insurance was followed by a squalid last minute manoeuvre to try and undermine Speaker Bercow. 

The there was David Cameron’s kitchen moment. Journalists call for honest answers from our politicians and when we get a straight answer, we hang them out to dry.

That could be said about the furore that surrounds David Cameron’s decision to only serve 5 more years if the voters let him. On the other hand it is surely not reasonable to expect journalists to analyse the consequences of such glimpses of honesty and there are plenty of them.

I wonder what Lynton Crosby, the strategist behind the Tory election campaign made of Cameron’s kitchen musings? He has ordered every Tory to stick to one message, the long term economic plan. Now the leader of the campaign has distracted attention from that. It was completely unnecessary because speculation about how long Cameron would serve if he was re-elected was well down the agenda. There’s plenty else for journalists to concentrate on like speculation about who forms the next government, candidates resigning and even the TV debates.

It clearly wasn’t thought through because what does Cameron mean when he says he will serve a full five years? Does he mean to fight the 2020 election as Prime Minister or have a leadership contest just before. The latter seems extremely unlikely as parties like to settle such issues well in advance. You surely couldn’t have a leader elect in place going into a General Election campaign.

If that is the case then one starts to look at what opportune moment the Prime Minister might decide to go. If he gets his way and holds the EU Referendum in 2017, then an obvious time to go is immediately after that. He will either have secured our membership or if we have voted to come out, he will have been repudiated on the biggest issue ever to have come before the British people. Either result would offer him the opportunity to go.

If he stayed on through 2018 and 2019 the Tory Party would be in the position of Labour after the 2005 General Election. Tony Blair had promised not to serve three full terms and this prompted debilitating speculation from Gordon brown’s supporters on when he would go. Incidentally Blair had made the promise to go under pressure from Brown. No such pressure has been forthcoming from potential Tory successors of David Cameron.

It was also unwise for the Prime Minister to identify George Osborne, Theresa May and Boris Johnson as potential leaders. Five years is a long time in politics and people like Philip Hammond, Sajid Javed and Liz Truss might be feeling a bit miffed with their leader.

Will it move the polls against Cameron? Probably not although some have pointed out there is a bit of Etonian arrogance at play here. After all the Tories haven’t won the 2015 election yet and the voters may determine that the Prime Minister gets a bare five years not ten.

CONSTITUENCY FOCUS: WIRRAL SOUTH.

It is very unlikely the Conservatives are going to win an overall majority on May 7th. But if they are they need to take seats like Wirral South.

Labour’s Ben Chapman took this seat from the Tories in a February 1997 by election that was a harbinger of Tony Blair’s General Election landslide months later. Alison McGovern narrowly held on last time with a majority of just 531.

The Tory candidate is John Bell who’s father worked at Cammell Lairds. He recently retired from Deeside College training staff at Airbus.

It could be close again with Tory support around Heswall and Labour’s strength in Bebbington and Bromborough.

UKIP support could be important here. They got 18% of the vote in last year’s local council elections.

 

NATION DISCOVERS ESTHER!

There had been so much focus on the Prime Minister bringing more women into the government that it was inevitable the papers would focus in on Esther McVey.

OK perhaps she did milk the photographers’ attention, lingering a little too long on the No 10 doorstep, but the MP for Wirral West is very different in many ways from the average Tory Minister.

We are familiar with her life story. Daughter of a scrap merchant turned property developer, she has run her own business and had a career as a television presenter. With her Liverpool accent, she’s down to earth with the people she meets.

She’s still in her first term in parliament but has had four promotions from parliamentary private secretary to junior minister, Minister of State and now attending Cabinet when her ministerial responsibilities at the Department for Work and Pensions are discussed.

It’s a shame she wasn’t given a full Cabinet place, perhaps replacing Michael Gove at Education, but Esther McVey is now clearly the second most senior Tory in the North West behind the Chancellor and Tatton MP George Osborne.

But who else is in the government from the North?

Ben Wallace (Wyre and Preston North) has taken a whips job, Crewe’s Edward Timpson remains at Education and ex Trafford Council leader Susan Williams holds a government post in the Lords.

However the drive to appoint women and Tory MPs with an ethnic background has left a raft of male and pale MPs disappointed. I’ve selected six North West Conservatives who could easily have been on the ministerial ladder now. Leading the way are Andrew Stephenson (Pendle) and Jake Berry (Rossendale) along with David Rutley (Macclesfield) David Morris (Morecambe) David Mowat (Warrington South) and Graham Evans (Weaver Vale).

The North needs more voices in the corridors of power, especially after the departure of William Hague. I was genuinely shocked that he wanted to give up one of the best jobs in government leave alone quitting politics altogether next year.

The consequence of that is that we have a new Foreign Secretary who has openly contemplated leaving the European Union. The appointment of Philip Hammond and other changes to the government show that David Cameron is determined to try and win next year’s General Election on a highly Eurosceptic platform.

The Attorney General Dominic Grieve was sacked because he warned against plans for the UK government to limit the power of the European Court of Human Rights.

The almost anonymous Lord Hill has been put forward as the UK’s nominee for EU Commissioner. That’s hardly designed to guarantee us a key economic portfolio. If he is put in charge of paper clips then we can have another Juncker style row which will make renegotiating the treaty even harder.

Then there will be the absence of Ken Clarke from the Cabinet table. He would have made a good Prime Minister but paid the price for his pro European views. Now his wise advise for us not to become obsessed with Europe will be absent from the Cabinet table.

Of course the car crash with Europe won’t happen if Labour win the election, but the anti European populist theme that runs through this reshuffle is likely to ensure that doesn’t happen.