Tag: Prime Minister

EU SECURITY BLACKMAIL A DISGRACE

 

AN INFAMOUS CLAUSE.

A week after parliament was subject to a horrific terror attack, the Prime Minister is threatening our European partners over security cooperation.

What was already a very sad day for us Remainers was made worse by this from the letter triggering Article 50. “In security terms a failure to reach agreement would mean our cooperation in the fight against crime and terrorism would be weakened.”

Our membership of Europol and the free exchange of intelligence on some of the most evil people in the world should have nothing to do with the terms of our divorce from the EU or the subsequent trade deal. This threat has been taken badly by the countries who we are going to have negotiate with. They were sad when the Prime Minister’s letter arrived. Now they are angry. Don’t the Brexiteers see what damage this whole business is doing to our reputation. I believe in a Britain at the heart of cooperation on trade, security and democratic values. If we go on like this, we’ll be seen as part of the Putin/Trump camp wishing the EU harm.

So, what happens next? We will not be offered the same terms as we now enjoy nor will the talks lead to a tariff free future with lorries trundling over the Irish border and through Dover as the triumphant Brexiteers claim. Indeed, officials at Dover are already looking at new lorry parks to accommodate the freight waggons as they queue for their security checks. Operation Stack every day!

I hope the Leavers noticed that in a major BBC interview the Prime Minister gave no guarantees on reducing immigration or what Whitehall will do with the money we get from leaving the EU. Nor would she discuss the divorce bill. Well it will start at £50bn and the Germans want that sorted before anything else. Finally, our European friends living here and UK citizens working in Europe may have to wait a long time to end the uncertainty of their status if the principle of “nothing is agreed until everything is agreed” is enforced.

BATTLE FOR THE LABOUR PARTY.

Labour is reported to be losing supporters as fast as it gained them in the Corbyn surge. This is being put down to people disappointed by their waiving through Article 50. Quite right, they deserve to be punished. Let’s see if they use their votes when Theresa May EU negotiations turn sour.

Meanwhile there are mixed signals concerning the strength of the left in the party. The election for General Secretary of Unite, The Union (as if there are no others) is very important. It is the biggest bankroller of the party. Moderates hope that Gerard Coyne can beat Corbyn supporter Len McCluskey and then work for an electable Labour leader. However, “the reality is” (Len’s favourite phrase) that the wily Liverpudlian is likely to win a second term. How Len explains that it is in Unite’s interest to have Labour out of power for decades is his business.

When it comes to parliamentary by election candidate selection, it doesn’t seem as if the party has been taken over wholesale by Momentum activists. In Copeland, Stoke and now Gorton, moderate candidates have been selected.

Afzal Khan in Gorton is facing a challenge from that political popinjay George Galloway. Some people have suggested to me that he could repeat his successes in the Bethnal Green and Bradford West by elections earlier this century. I think that is unlikely

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MAUFACTURING NOT THE ANSWER FOR THE NORTH ?

 

A BIT OF BOTH.

Debate has opened up on the future configuration of the Northern Powerhouse under Theresa May’s government. Should the project be less focused on our cities and cover a wider canvas? Will we play second fiddle to the Midlands Engine? What is the key to providing sustainable jobs in the middle of this century?

On the latter point, the Centre For Cities think tank have opened an interesting debate suggesting in the words of their Chief Executive “the calls of some politicians to recreate the North’s glory days by focusing on a resurgence in manufacturing will not be sufficient to transform the North’s economy.”

Does Alexandra Jones have a point? I felt a wave of pride this week when Sir David Attenborough was present at the keel laying ceremony for the first large ship to be built at Cammell Laird’s yard in Birkenhead for many years. It was a reminder of a past era when Birkenhead made ships, Manchester spun textiles and Sheffield forged steel and sold the products round the world. There is something special about making things. Flying sparks, liquid metal, the clatter of weaving machines will always beat the tap on the keyboard and the silent transfer of information from one computer screen to another. Much of this is sentimental tosh when considering what the North needs to do to make the Northern Powerhouse a reality.

Centre For Cities is right to focus our attention on what happened to London which used to be a major centre for manufacturing with its docks nearby. It transformed into a hi tech and service based economy with excellent communications and high skills. That is what we need to do, particularly the latter.

But there needs to be a balance. A major apprentice fair was held in Manchester this week where youngsters were being urged to get skilled up not just for hi tech and service industry jobs but ones involving construction and hydraulics. There will still be a place for manufacturing in the North if we can identify the opportunities in sectors like energy and aerospace.

HEATHROW: THE CHOICE OF THE NORTH.

A third runway at Heathrow has been under consideration since 1968. It is pathetic that the Prime Minister, who came in stressing the need for a new industrial strategy based on infrastructure spending, is delaying a final decision for another year.

It is pretty clear that Heathrow will get the nod over Gatwick. Why else would these elaborate plans be drawn up to allow Cabinet ministers like Boris Johnson to express their continued opposition and remain in the Cabinet?

The Davies Commission should have backed a regional expansion strategy, particularly with HS2 in mind, but with only Gatwick and Heathrow on the table, the North has to choose which to back.

Gatwick is simply on the wrong side of London for most of the country with Heathrow offering much better connection to the North.

But we need to get on with infrastructure spending on HS2, housing and Heathrow and if people find it too noisy and congested in West London then come North where the quality of life is infinitely better!

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LABOUR’S NORTHERN MAYORAL CHOICES

 

DOG’S BREAKFAST.

One senses that whoever wins the Labour leadership contest, they will never become Prime Minister and hold real power. So we must look elsewhere for Labour politicians who will affect our lives in the coming years.

The position of elected mayor for the city regions of Liverpool and Greater Manchester seem a reasonably safe bet. I say that with the important caveat that all Labour strongholds in the North may soon come under a challenge from UKIP. But presuming the new leader of UKIP hasn’t had time to get his/her ducks in a row, the two Labour politicians currently being chosen in party ballots in Greater Manchester and the Liverpool City Region will hold significant power.

Only those two areas will have elected mayors next May. Internal squabbling and a government distracted by Brexit has ensured that there will be no great roll out of elected mayors across the North come May.

Leeds may yet get its act together but it has been a painful process with competing demands for a Greater Yorkshire mayor competing with Leeds more city focussed approach. Then there was a fight over transport powers with North Yorkshire. It appears likely that Leeds will do a deal with Craven, Harrogate and Selby but politics is in the background. Some Tory MPs are pressing the new Communities Secretary Sajid Javid for more Tory districts to be included to prevent an inevitable Labour mayor being elected.

Warrington had the same concern in reverse, that an elected mayor including Cheshire could jeopardise Labour’s control of the town. In Lancashire Wyre district continues to hold out against a countywide elected mayor whilst Chorley wants to become a unitary authority.

It is all a bit of a mess. It is what you get when a government decides on the superficially democratic idea of allowing devolution to grow from the bottom up. It is a recipe for petty rivalry resulting in a chaotic pattern that voters don’t understand. We need regional government with only unitary authorities underneath, but we are where we are, so let’s look at who might win the Labour nominations.

TOPPLING BIG JOE?

Joe Anderson has been Labour’s elected mayor for the city of Liverpool for four years. The independent academic Michael Parkinson recently published a glowing report on his success. He listed Joe’s achievements including persuading a Tory government to devolve powers, the International Festival of Business, and the Exhibition Hall; all done against a background of massive public spending cuts. He had also raised the profile of the city, the central aim of this elected mayor project.

Anderson now wants to be mayor of the City Region and needs to deal with the perception that it would always be Liverpool first and Wirral, St Helens and Sefton second.

That is why Steve Rotheram, MP for Walton, is standing on a platform of “No borough left behind.” He says he will give more priority to the needs of the whole city region. He has remained as parliamentary aide to Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn which might go down well with the current Labour membership.

Luciana Berger, MP for Wavertree, is seen as the outsider which is a shame because these positions were meant to see different faces coming to the fore. Her call for fresh leadership following Brexit seems to be falling on deaf ears.

TONY THE MAN TO BEAT.

In Greater Manchester Tony Lloyd is relying on big union support and the fact that he is currently doing the job of interim mayor to see him to the Labour nomination. Dynamic wouldn’t be the first word to come to mind in describing Lloyd’s political style but he has often been underestimated in his climb from Trafford councillor, to MP, to Minister, to chair of the Parliamentary Labour Party before seeing off Lord Smith of Wigan for his current job.

Ivan Lewis (MP Bury South) is bringing dynamism to the race with his challenge that so far the benefits of devolution have not gone far beyond Manchester.

Meanwhile Shadow Home Secretary Andy Burnham says his Cabinet experience will bring heft to the job. He wants more emphasis on council houses instead of plush flats and is challenging the Prime Minister to clarify her position on devolution. The Everton supporting Burnham is battling a perception that he is not Manc enough for the job.

The results of the Labour candidate ballots will be known in early August.

 

NORTHERN BUSINESS POST BREXIT

 

Business is faced with years of uncertainty following the Brexit vote but people are trying to make the best of a very bad job.

That was clear at a Downtown meeting in Manchester this week where our members and guests resolved to use the northern spirit of enterprise to seek out new opportunities if we are to be outside the EU.

THE POLITICAL LANDSCAPE.

Political uncertainty remains although I think Theresa May will be the next Prime Minister. However some members at the meeting felt that Andrea Leadsom’s claim to be the real Brexiteer will win her much support amongst the grass roots. The anti EU zealots are still alive and well in the Tory Party. They are suspicious that Theresa May, who was on the Remain side, will cave in to Brussels. Mrs May has countered that displaying a sense of humour that we all thought she completely lacked. Having been described by Ken Clarke as “a bloody difficult woman”, Mrs May remarked that the next person to think that would be the EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker.

Brave talk but the negotiations are going to be hard and the darkening economic landscape is there for all to see.

Whoever the Tories choose, they are likely to be Prime Minister well into the 2020s having won the General Election against the unelectable Jeremy Corbyn. It looks as if the Labour moderates have failed to remove him. A week ago Wallasey MP Angela Eagle was poised to challenge. The pressure on Corbyn was at its maximum but she didn’t make her move. It may still come but in the past week Eagle has faced a left wing pro Corbyn revolt in her constituency and the leader strengthened his position in the wake of the Chilcot Inquiry. Corbyn reminded the nation of his opposition to the Iraq War whereas Tony Blair looked like a broken man.

Labour moderates need to realise the game is up. The Labour Party is now a socialist party. The political space just to the left of centre is waiting for them. In any case there will now be a ruthless process of deselection of moderate MPs mounted by the Corbyn supporting Momentum movement making them pay for their “treachery” to the leader.

THE BUSINESS OUTLOOK.

Against that political background there was agreement at the Downtown meeting that the next three years would be difficult. Not only would the UK’s relationship with the EU change but the EU itself might change. Tom Cannon from Liverpool University forecast the pound would be worth a dollar by Christmas as the American currency strengthened. He forecast big cities like Leeds and Liverpool would thrive in the post Brexit world but people in the communities that had voted most strongly to leave would suffer most from rising petrol and food prices.

Neil McInroy from the Centre For Local Economic Strategies felt that Chancellor George Osborne would go and the Northern Powerhouse, with which he is so closely associated, will slow or stop. It is difficult to see May (Maidenhead) or Leadsom (South Northamptonshire) having the same feel for the project as the man from Tatton.

Our own Chief Executive Frank McKenna said warnings from business, about how their bottom line costs would rise if we were out of the EU, had been drowned out by the noise of the politicians. He also feared extreme candidates could affect next year’s mayoral contests in Liverpool and Manchester.

So much uncertainty on the business and political front as Downtown’s business community looks to the future.