STARMER THE APPEASER

 

The Prime Minister has been called an appeaser for her closeness to Donald Trump. That is a result of this country’s desperate search for new friends now that we are shunning our 27 partners in Europe.

So, while Labour are hurling insults with 1930’s echoes in them at Mrs May, let’s see if the same cap fits on Kier Starmer. He’s the Brexit spokesman for Labour. They’ve been assuring us during the passage of the bill triggering our exit from the EU that, whilst respecting the vote to Leave, they would fight hard for concessions. One of these was to get the government to have a vote in parliament at the end of the negotiations with a view to sending Mrs May back to the negotiating table if MPs found the deal unsatisfactory.

What happened in the Commons on Tuesday was frankly an embarrassment and shows the poor quality of Labour’s front bench. As soon as the government announced there would be a vote, Starmer hailed it as a significant victory. All we needed was for him to hold a piece of paper above his head, Neville Chamberlain style, and the image would have been complete. This is because it rapidly became clear that all the government was offering was approval of the package or an exit from Europe with no deal which few would vote for.

A Labour MP last week, who’s a friend, was gently chiding me last week for my view that there should have been a united front by Labour, the SNP and Lib Dems behind a second referendum. Labour’s way was better I was told. Well it clearly isn’t. Labour are constantly being pushed aside and divided by a Tory government where Brexit extremists are making all the running.

Don’t take my word for it. Listen to Claire Perry, the Conservative MP for Devizes. She said in the debate that she felt she was sitting beside jihadists on the Tory benches for whom no Brexit is hard enough. Their view was “be gone you evil Europeans and don’t darken our doors again.”

One can trace the ascent of this extremism in the Tory Party by listening to Ken Clarke, the only Tory to vote against the bill in principal last week. When he entered parliament in 1970, such people were still clinging on to the British Empire and denounced one nation Conservatives like Iain Macleod for giving away the colonies.

For a while they became less significant as Ted Heath took us into the Common Market and then Margaret Thatcher signed up to the Single Market. Soon after that the tide turned with the very same Margaret Thatcher doing a U turn. They then harried John Major into the biggest defeat the Tories had suffered in decades. In opposition, the scepticism grew and back in government they forced a weak David Cameron to allow a referendum with a ludicrous in/out option. Even though it was narrowly carried, they show no respect for that and are now hell bent on a hard Brexit.

The only choice for Labour was to back the Lib Dems clear position of a second referendum but centre left sectarianism triumphed and there is total disarray in the face of a skilful Prime Minister leading her hard line Brexiteers.

Follow me at www.jimhancock.co.uk

 

 

 

THE THREE RING PARTY CIRCUS

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The dramatic fall of Tatton’s George Osborne, the vile atmosphere in the Labour Party and the opportunity offered to UKIP by Nigel Farage’s departure; just sit back and watch the three ring circus that is British politics.

MAY BE.

For Northern business the most significant move of the new Prime Minister was the sacking of George Osborne. He was the only North West MP in the Cabinet and had driven the Northern Powerhouse (NP). We don’t know what the new Chancellor, Philip Hammond’s policy on devolution will be. We certainly know that leaders of northern cities are worried about

hundreds of millions of investment promises and possible signs of wavering on HS2.

Osborne deserved to go along with his buddy David Cameron. The two men were responsible for the disastrous referendum and that overwhelms even the considerable achievement of turning round the economy. Nevertheless Osborne knew the North and put the whole weight of his office behind devolution and the NP. If you have the Chancellor backing a project, it happens. if its an initiative of a more junior minister the chances of success are less certain.

We now see the broad shape of the May administration. The best we can say about the two at the top is that they are efficient politicians that get on with the job. Maybe that’s what the country needs. I remain to be convinced about May’s one nation rhetoric. We cannot even guarantee colour from Boris Johnson. They frown on tripwire antics in the Foreign Office. His roller coaster ride this year truly illustrates the unpredictability of politics. From loyal Remainer to traitorous Leaver, he was alarmed at his referendum success. Michael Gove detected this and sent him into political oblivion only for May to rescue him and rightly sack Gove from the Cabinet.

On the subject of the unpredictability of politics, look at the return of Dr Fox and David Davies. Fox left office in 2011 under a cloud and seemed like yesterday’s man. So did David Davies who lost the Tory leadership battle to Call Me Dave 11 years ago. Now they are deeply involved in ministries trying to get us out of the EU.

LABOUR PARTY’S VILE BATTLE.

I don’t want to say much about Labour this week. It is too upsetting to see the party of Clement Atlee, Harold Wilson and Tony Blair reduced to a complete joke. Actually it is worse. Anyone who heard the trembling voice of National Executive Committee member Janet Baxter describing the atmosphere in this week’s meeting would never get involved in politics. She seemed on the edge of a nervous breakdown. What must the staff in the Wallasey office of leadership contender Angela Eagle be doing? Waiting for the next brick through the window?

The foul language of Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell this week in his description of some of his fellow MPs gives the lie to the leadership’s protestations that they want a clean fight. The minority of violent Trots pick up the vibes just as racists on the right have used the Leave vote to intimidate Polish immigrants.

BEWARE THE WOOLFE.

UKIP should elect Steven Woolfe as their next leader. He’s a North West MEP and the party’s spokesman on finance. He is plausible and would not indulge in the bar room antics of his now departed leader Nigel Farage.

If UKIP can develop policies on health, housing, and social care as well as immigration, they could become a huge threat to Labour in the North and Midlands.

Let’s hope there is a strong centre left party to face them in 2020.

 

SECOND REFERENDUM FRONT AT ELECTION

REVERSE THIS MADNESS

Let’s ask the burning question for the North of England. People outside most of the large cities voted Leave in justified rage at being ignored. Would they vote Leave again after a week when billions of pounds have been written off our companies and banks? When investment decisions that could bring vital work to the very areas that voted Leave are being put off? When we have seen division grow between young and old, North and South, Scotland and England and Nigel Farage disgrace Britain with another loutish performance in the European Parliament? Even more worryingly some people feel the Brexit vote has given them a licence to openly abuse people from ethnic communities. We have seen the Vice Chancellor of Manchester University having to issue a statement trying to calm fears amongst her international staff about their jobs and European research funding.

In that list I have not even mentioned the political turmoil which is both adding to the crisis but may just give us an opportunity to stop this Brexit insanity in its tracks.

The Labour Party could be on the brink of extinction. Since the decline of traditional industries and mass union membership it has seen a struggle between its socialist and social democratic wings. When the struggle for the leadership is resolved, it is possible that Jeremy Corbyn will be re-elected as leader by the socialist grass roots completing the split between the parliamentary party and activists.

At the same time the Conservatives will have a new leader and Prime Minister who is likely to want a General Election mandate. It was significant that the party’s officials accelerated the timetable so that an October General Election is now possible before the winter sets in.

There is a growing chance that the new Prime Minister will be Theresa May. Although on the Remain side, if she lets it be known that she would appoint Andrea Ledsom from Leave to a new post of Cabinet Minister for Brexit, it may be enough to overcome Boris Johnson.

If a General Election is on the way, there is only one option for social democrats in the Labour Party and that is to link up with Liberal Democrats, Greens and any pro EU Tories who want to join in a grand alliance to ask for a second referendum. One candidate would stand against the Tories in each seat. A normal election would be possible in Scotland due to the strong pro European stance of the people and parties there. The Lib Dems are reported to be gaining members at the rate of one a minute following leader Tim Farron’s pledge to campaign to rejoin the EU. We don’t need to rejoin though, just stop the years of complex, acrimonious unravelling straight away now that people can see they were fooled. We have not triggered Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty which would probably put us beyond the point of no return.

There is an obvious risk that such a stance could see UKIP winning many seats accusing a “second referendum” alliance of ignoring the democratic wish of the people. However the situation is so serious that such a charge has to be taken on board and answered in the following way.

The brazen Brexiteers have already been found out on their promises for NHS funding, their ability to cut immigration and the claim that Turkey would be joining the EU soon. Remain forecasts of a massive economic impact on the markets has been proved right. Assertions that Brexit had no idea what shape our relations with the EU would look like have also been proved right and most fundamental of all the Remain campaign was right that our standing in the world would be diminished as we turned inwards to fight ourselves.

Europe must reform and democratise, the issue of immigration must be addressed, the arrogant Jean-Claude Juncker (President of the Commission) must be replaced. But we must stay in the EU.

Cross party coalitions came together in the 1918 and 1931 elections. Grave times call for exceptional measures. All pro EU politicians must unite now or we are on the road to a painful exit from Europe and Conservative governments stretching long into the future.

CAMERON: SO RIGHT TO QUIT

 

David Cameron is right up there with Lord North who lost America and Neville Chamberlain who waved his pathetic piece of paper after meeting Hitler, as a contender for the worst Prime Minister in our nation’s history.

His achievement in reviving the British economy is completely overshadowed by his reckless gamble with not only this country’s future but the whole European Union. He only promised the referendum for narrow political advantage to fend off UKIP’s Nigel Farage who is now dancing on his political grave. And before people say he wanted to give the people their voice, there is a widespread belief in political circles that he never expected to have to deliver the promise. He didn’t expect to win the General Election and could rely on Labour and the Lib Dems to stop it.

I so wish I hadn’t been right in January 2013 when Cameron made the referendum promise. I wrote “if he wins the election he will attempt a major renegotiation. He will fail but pretend the scraps he does get will be a good enough for people to vote yes. He will be ridiculed by UKIP and half the Tory Party egged on by the Murdoch press and I fear the British people will vote to come out.”

Of course people voted on the issue of our membership of Europe but a lot used the referendum to express their total frustration with the political establishment and their expert advisers. That’s the problem with referendums, people use them for a variety of reasons. The binary choice leaves no place for nuance.

Alienation was particularly strong in parts of the North. What is striking is the difference between the large cities and smaller ones. So Manchester had a 60% vote for Remain, Liverpool 58% and Leeds 50%. But outside the big urban areas Labour voters picked up Jeremy Corbyn’s lukewarm approach to the Remain campaign. So Blackpool recorded a 67% vote for Leave, Blackburn 56% (Barbara Castle would have been pleased), Bradford 54% and Preston 53%.

It is true that the economic recovery has not been felt across large tracts of the North. Austerity has been the wider experience but voting to leave the EU is likely to make the problems of the depressed areas of the North worse. The short term damage to the British economy is already being done as the world’s stock markets give their damning verdict. This will be followed by medium term uncertainty as we try to ask our angry former EU partners for decent trade deals. In the longer term what’s left of the UK (Scotland may have left) will have to try and paddle its own canoe in a world which has consolidated around large trading blocs.

Until 2010 the North had the powerful Regional Development Agencies backed up by regional investment from the EU. The RDA’s were scrapped and replaced by the Northern Powerhouse which has clearly not convinced working class people that they are being heard. The architect of the NP is George Osborne who will surely follow the Prime Minister into resignation. As far as regional investment is concerned we will now have to rely on Whitehall rather than the EU.

The Conservatives will probably elect Boris Johnson as leader and Prime Minister. Labour need urgently to replace Jeremy Corbyn who is just not up to the job.

But ultimately these leadership changes will only mask the need for a realignment of politics with the creation of a left of centre party that one day can provide competition for the rampant right.