MOVE THE BORDER TO THE MERSEY AND HUMBER !

 

NICOLA’S MAGIC TOUCH.

How do we feel Oop North about moving the Scottish border southwards? Then we could benefit from the inspirational leadership of Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party and banish the male and stale politicians who have failed to grasp the full vision of northern devolution?

Nicola is wooing us. Her manifesto calls for a significant increase in infrastructure spending in the North of England. She wants HS2 started from Scotland down to northern England at the same time as the track is laid to Birmingham. She wants a Northern Cities Fund and concludes “while a strong London is good a strong Newcastle and Leeds is better.”

I am not actually serious about the border but we do need a counter argument to the Tory shroud waving about the SNP and how they will dictate the UK budget in a deal with Labour. Firstly I think Labour would rather rule as a minority or with the Lib Dems, Irish and Greens than reach an accommodation with the party that has nearly wiped them out in Scotland. For Miliband to work with the SNP could mean the permanent weakening of Labour north of the border.

Secondly Tory grandees like Lord Tebbitt and Michael Forsyth have warned the Prime Minister that stoking up English fears and resentment about the Scots plays right into the separatist cause.

DON’T LET ME MEET ORDINARY VOTERS.

I used to love the campaign trail, seeing our leaders face to face with the people they sought to represent and being heckled at open to all public meetings.

I am not planning to attend any visits by the party leaders to the North this time because I refuse to be kettled in a press pen to observe Dave, Ed and Nick surrounded by adoring activists keeping everyone else out. We need Mrs Duffy of Rochdale (Gordon Brown’s bigoted woman) to break through the ring and tell them what she thinks.

The campaign managers thinks it makes good telly. Do they really think people are so stupid as to think that their leaders are being universally welcomed in every town. TV producers have a duty to pan away from the tight throng of supporters and show the excluded public beyond.

On a more optimistic note I am pleased to report that hustings in individual seats are alive and well. I’ve hosted ones in Bolton and Hazel Grove with Withington and Chester to come. People still want to turn up at church halls to see their candidates in the flesh rather than communicating via new media.

THE FORGOTTEN ELECTION.

Did you know that on May 7th we’ll also be having a big round of local council elections? There has been virtually no media coverage of the contests for the tier of government that actually delivers most of the services that matter to us. Furthermore with all the promises made about ring fencing the NHS and not putting up VAT and National Insurance, it is likely local government will bear the brunt of the further cuts promised by most parties after the election.

A third of all the metro councils in West Yorkshire, Greater Manchester and Merseyside are up for election. Labour could gain Calderdale and Kirklees and threaten the Tories in Trafford and the Lib dems in Stockport.

There are all out elections in the unitary councils of Blackpool, East and West Cheshire. The latter is the most interesting with Conservative control under threat from Labour. A third of councillors are up for election in the other unitaries, Blackburn and Warrington.

There are full or a third elections in district councils in Lancashire and other parts of the North.

SEAT FOCUS: MORECAMBE AND LUNESDALE.

With a majority of under a thousand Tory David Morris has a fight on his hands to prevent Manchester councillor Amina Lone taking this seat for Labour.

Her strength is in the town of Morecambe and Heysham with its nuclear power station and busy port.

A major road improvement is under way to link Heysham to the M6 and the more Tory voting areas around Carnforth.

Follow me at www.jimhancock.co.uk

THE RISE OF THE HARD LEFT….AND RIGHT

 

 

THE GREEK EFFECT.

 

What effect will the triumph of the far left in Greece have on our General Election?

 

People across Europe are reacting to years of austerity and the failure of mainstream parties to offer fresh solutions. Greece is an extreme example of how the slump has crushed ordinary people. They have responded with a defiant cry against the attempts to make them obey the economic rules that we must all obey. Whilst some minor debt repayment restructuring might be possible, the fact remains that two things will save Greece. A productive economy and people paying their taxes. I fear the next phase in the Greek drama will be dangerous disillusionment amongst the Greek people when the Syriza politicians are unable to implement policies like hiring ten thousand public sector workers as they bump up against the rules of the Euro Zone and European Central Bank.

 

A far left party in Spain is mobilising to make big gains in its election later this year. With a much bigger economy than Greece, that could pose an even greater challenge to the European financial institutions.

 

Although the UK’s economy is on the mend there are plenty of signs that people are looking for alternatives. On the right there is UKIP, in Scotland the SNP, but the growth in membership of the Green Party could be highly significant. The Greens offer a much more fundamental challenge to the way society is organised with bold policies on energy and taxation. Initial attempts to keep them out of the election TV debates caused a backlash, and quite right too.

 

How will Labour respond if they detect a growing appetite for more radical solutions? Ed Miliband has been inching his party to the left but remains nervous about how it will play in those southern marginals. The issue of our Trident nuclear missiles remains a fascinating issue. I was in the Commons gallery recently where Labour’s spokesman on the issue, Vernon Coaker, pledged the party to approving the “main gate” decision on renewing the four boat fleet. But what if Labour has to do a deal with the anti nuclear SNP after May 7th? Is there really a majority of Labour MPs and activists prepared to stay out of office rather than scrap Trident? We could find that the arguments that beset the party during the leadership of Hugh Gaitskell in the 1960s would resurface.

 

ANOTHER TAWDRY DEFECTION.

 

Politicians sometimes defect on the grounds of principle, but often not. I remember a man called Peter Thurnham, the MP for the highly marginal seat of Bolton North East up to 1997. He tried for the safer prospect of Westmorland and when he wasn’t selected, suddenly discovered he was a Lib Dem.

 

Amjad Bashir, an MEP for Yorkshire and the Humber seems to have even more difficulty in defining his political principles. Following associations with Respect and UKIP he has now joined the Tories. UKIP say they were about to suspend him over various allegations connected to his business and political behaviour.

 

Have the Conservatives done due diligence on this man or are they just like all other parties in being unable to resist defectors to them, however unconvincing they are?

 

 

 

 

 

 

RECOVERY THREATENED BY REFERENDA MANIA.

 

 

BUSINESS TO SAVE THE UNION?

 

A sure way of destabilising the fragile economic recovery was for David Cameron to back not one but two referenda in the space of three years.Referenda that could reduce the UK, or what’s left of it, to a basket case.

 

I wrote some months ago that by the end of 2017 the United Kingdom of England, Wales and Northern Ireland could easily be preparing to leave the European Union. There was very little debate in England about Scottish independence, just a complacent feeling that the Scots would not vote yes.

 

Things are different now. English political leaders have been scrambling North stuffing Alex Salmond’s mouth with gold.

 

The last minute business revolt against the real prospect of an independent Scotland will probably save the day, but it will be a close run thing.

 

The experience of the last week might give people a flavour of what it will be like if we vote to come out of the European Union in three years time. With the world the way it is, this is no time to embrace separatism whether it is offered by the Scot Nats or UKIP. They offer a road to enmity and disruption.

 

So why have we come to the point where next Thursday there is the possibility of us losing the Scottish part of our British family? Alex Salmond and his deputy are very able politicians. They stand out partly because the major figures in the other parties all decided to ply their trade at Westminster leaving the B team in the Scottish Parliament. The SNP has played the patriotic card well, particularly with the young voters, who perhaps don’t ask the hard economic questions.

 

The referendum comes at a time of mass disillusion with conventional politics. “Give us something different” is the cry. In the European elections it was UKIP, next week it will be the SNP. In Scotland to use Mr Cameron’s words, they hate the f_____g Tories, they yearn for a more socialist programme than North London boy Ed Miliband is offering and the Lib Dems are seen as Tory lackeys in the Coalition.

 

Although Salmond has played his hand well, the gaping hole at the heart of his case has been exposed.

He relies on the claim that the Chancellor is bluffing about the currency issue. Perhaps he is. Perhaps “reasonable logic” would kick in as the enormity of disaggregating the two countries hit home and the negotiations got under way. But the mood of English people might not allow it. They may say “they voted for independence, let them get on with it.” A North West MP expressed those exact sentiments to me at Westminster this week.

 

But what if against the odds the vote is for independence? The Bank of England is poised for emergency action on Friday to stabilise the currency, and there will be calls for the Prime Minister’s resignation. We would face the prospect of electing a House of Commons next May where 59 MPs would be leaving within a year. And that hobbled parliament is meant to negotiate our future in the EU.

 

Its a great time to plan business investment!

 

LABOUR PANIC IN HEYWOOD AND MIDDLETON.

 

Jim Dobbin was a kind decent man and we all mourn his passing. My condolences go to his family. His death put Labour in a difficult position. They rightly wanted to respect family feelings which would normally require that the by election writ should not be moved before the funeral.

 

But the party fear that given enough time UKIP might be able to exploit voters who feel “left behind” by modern politics in this traditional Labour seat. They wanted to avoid a contest where the UKIP bandwagon, flushed by the inevitable victory of Douglas Carswell in Clacton on October 9th would roll on to Heywood and Middleton. Now both contests will be fought on the same day and UKIP’s resources will be stretched.

 

JUST JIM 118.

 

RECOVERY THREATENED BY REFERENDUM MANIA.

 

A sure way of destabilising the fragile economic recovery was for David Cameron to back not one but two referenda in the space of three years.Referenda that could reduce the UK, or what’s left of it, to a basket case.

 

I wrote some months ago that by the end of 2017 the United Kingdom of England, Wales and Northern Ireland could easily be preparing to leave the European Union. There was very little debate in England about Scottish independence, just a complacent feeling that the Scots would not vote yes.

 

Things are different now. English political leaders have been scrambling North stuffing Alex Salmond’s mouth with gold.

 

The last minute business revolt against the real prospect of an independent Scotland will probably save the day, but it will be a close run thing.

 

The experience of the last week might give people a flavour of what it will be like if we vote to come out of the European Union in three years time. With the world the way it is, this is no time to embrace separatism whether it is offered by the Scot Nats or UKIP. They offer a road to enmity and disruption.

 

So why have we come to the point where next Thursday there is the possibility of us losing the Scottish part of our British family? Alex Salmond and his deputy are very able politicians. They stand out partly because the major figures in the other parties all decided to ply their trade at Westminster leaving the B team in the Scottish Parliament. The SNP has played the patriotic card well, particularly with the young voters, who perhaps don’t ask the hard economic questions.

 

The referendum comes at a time of mass disillusion with conventional politics. “Give us something different” is the cry. In the European elections it was UKIP, next week it will be the SNP. In Scotland to use Mr Cameron’s words, they hate the f_____g Tories, they yearn for a more socialist programme than North London boy Ed Miliband is offering and the Lib Dems are seen as Tory lackeys in the Coalition.

 

Although Salmond has played his hand well, the gaping hole at the heart of his case has been exposed.

He relies on the claim that the Chancellor is bluffing about the currency issue. Perhaps he is. Perhaps “reasonable logic” would kick in as the enormity of disaggregating the two countries hit home and the negotiations got under way. But the mood of English people might not allow it. They may say “they voted for independence, let them get on with it.” A North West MP expressed those exact sentiments to me at Westminster this week.

 

But what if against the odds the vote is for independence? The Bank of England is poised for emergency action on Friday to stabilise the currency, and there will be calls for the Prime Minister’s resignation. We would face the prospect of electing a House of Commons next May where 59 MPs would be leaving within a year. And that hobbled parliament is meant to negotiate our future in the EU.

 

Its a great time to plan business investment!

 

LABOUR PANIC IN HEYWOOD AND MIDDLETON.

 

Jim Dobbin was a kind decent man and we all mourn his passing. My condolences go to his family. His death put Labour in a difficult position. They rightly wanted to respect family feelings which would normally require that the by election writ should not be moved before the funeral.

 

But the party fear that given enough time UKIP might be able to exploit voters who feel “left behind” by modern politics in this traditional Labour seat. They wanted to avoid a contest where the UKIP bandwagon, flushed by the inevitable victory of Douglas Carswell in Clacton on October 9th would roll on to Heywood and Middleton. Now both contests will be fought on the same day and UKIP’s resources will be stretched.

 

 

 

 

 

 

COUNCIL OF THE NORTH TO COPE WITH SCOTS’ POWER

 

 

 

 

It’s 2018, The United Kingdom of England, Wales and Northern Ireland is out of the European Union with an independent Scotland to its north. The BBC is trying to report all this despite being impoverished by the new subscription system.

 

I’ve feared this nightmare scenario for about two years and recent events confirm my fears. If you think I am scaremongering, don’t underestimate the political and commercial enemies of the BBC. Don’t underestimate UKIP’s Nigel Farage or the Scottish National Party leader Alex Salmond. Despite all the threats about the currency, major companies threatening to leave Scotland and the President of the European Commission saying it would be extremely difficult for an independent Scotland top join the EU, the polls are tightening north of the border and the “No” campaign is under heavy attack for its negativity.

 

So where is the debate in Manchester, Leeds and Liverpool? It’s about time business people in the north started to think about the employment and tax implications of an independent Scotland or even a Scotland with “devolution plus” powers.

 

In search of answers I went almost as far north as one can go in England to listen to a discussion organised by the Institute For Public Policy Research (North) on how we should respond to events beyond Hadrian’s Wall. In Newcastle at least the Geordies are giving it some attention.

 

There is a view that Alex Salmond didn’t want a vote on independence. It’s only happening because of the introduction of a system of electing a Scottish government by PR to ensure power sharing failed when the SNP got a majority in 2011. And why would Alex Salmond want independence when the other political parties are falling over themselves to appease the Scots’ thirst for power and money? Since 1999 the Scottish Parliament has exercised considerable power,and soon Scotland will set a Scottish rate of income tax and control Stamp Duty and the landfill levy. More is promised if the Scots vote no. The lesson is that the more noise you make, the more you get heard. But by contrast the North of England is bought off by City Deals, Combined Authorities, Elected Mayors, Local Enterprise Partnerships and Regional Growth Funds.

 

The Chief Executive of Newcastle City Council said these were the instruments she would be relying on as Scots’ power grows. She was challenged on the need for a powerful strategic Council of the North to bring everyone together from Carlisle and Newcastle to Hull and Liverpool.

 

Professor David Bell, an economics professor at the University of Stirling,said independence or even the extra powers I’ve listed above would leave an imbalance with the North of England that will be unsustainable.

 

Let’s remember that this demand for Scottish independence has been driven since the 1970s by economic grievances, largely centred on North Sea oil. In that it differs from independence movements in Quebec and Catalonia where political and cultural factors are more to the fore.

 

Then there is the dramatic effect independence would have on British politics. 59 Scottish Labour MPs would be out of Westminster. The party that relies on London, the north and Scotland to form a government would be very lucky ever to see power at Westminster again. The Tories, with their strength in southern England, would be bound to reflect those interests at the expense of the North.

 

We need to hope for a no vote, but prepare to welcome the headquarters of Scottish based multi nationals relocating in the North after independence rather than London and demand a Council of the North to give northern business and people real strategic and economic power here