WHEN CORBYN WINS…….

 

 

THE UNIONS MUST DECIDE.

The selection of Steve Rotheram and Andy Burnham to be Labour’s candidates for mayor in the city regions of Liverpool and Manchester mean it is almost certain Jeremy Corbyn will be confirmed as leader of the Labour Party in September.

He will gain control of the party’s ruling National Executive (NEC) shortly afterwards following victories by the Momentum slate in this week’s NEC elections. The organisation was set up to buttress Corbyn support.

Following Corbyn’s victory, de-selection will face most of the Labour MPs who opposed him as the party becomes truly socialist as most of its huge membership desires.

Some of Corbyn’s opponents will seek to rejoin the Shadow team but we may see a majority seeking the Speaker’s recognition as the Official Opposition. This may be a prelude to the setting up of a new social democratic party. It would be a more credible organisation than the “Gang of Four” SDP that was created by Roy Jenkins, Shirley Williams, David Owen and Bill Rodgers in 1981. However its success will crucially depend on what the unions do with their money. There needs to be a big debate at next month’s Trades Union Congress about what they do. The unions founded Labour to win elections in order to put in place laws to help their members. When do they expect that to happen under Jeremy Corbyn? A huge membership is fine. Engaged, enthusiastic activists are to be admired but a programme of high taxes, weak immigration policy and unilateral nuclear disarmament will be rejected by Middle England in 2020 as it was in 1983.

ROTHERAM AND BURNHAM.

It is unlikely that Liverpool’s elected mayor, Joe Anderson will remain “heartbroken” for long following his failure to be selected to be candidate for Labour in next year’s election for Liverpool City Region Mayor. He has already indicated he intends to deliver on his second term programme. He was only re-elected in May to serve till 2020.

One had heard of plans for Liverpool Council to revert to a leader/Cabinet model next year. Deputy Mayor Ann O’Byrne had even been mentioned as the person to lead the city if Joe became City Region Mayor.

The Lib Dems are launching a petition to scrap the Liverpool elected mayor post. Good luck with that. Joe will be staying,no doubt pledging to work in comradely fashion with Steve Rotheram but perhaps secretly warning that his former North Liverpool friend will lead the city region into a Militant style confrontation with the government.

Rotheram has a job of reassurance on his hands. He stayed as Corbyn’s parliamentary aide, and hosted Corbyn’s recent rally in the city. He is seen as Corbyn’s man and will need to satisfy the business community that he will not wreck the work done by Anderson in bringing jobs to the city.

Rotheram has revealed a strong bond with Andy Burnham who won the Labour mayoral nomination in Greater Manchester. They are planning a North West Powerhouse campaign to stop the backsliding on the devolution project that seems to be happening under the new Tory government.

Burnham’s Scouse connections did him no harm with Mancs in the end. Remaining in the Shadow Cabinet went down well with the Corbyn dominated membership. His analysis that devolution has been too Manchester centric and the politics top down and closed off,is right. But just as Rotheram has Anderson to deal with in Liverpool, Sir Richard Leese is still leader of Manchester Council, having made some disparaging remarks about the post that Burnham looks likely to be elected to.

We are all presuming that Rotheram and Burnham are going to defeat their opponents next year in these Labour dominated urban regions. I just wonder in these turbulent times if that is entirely wise.

 

 

 

 

LABOUR’S NORTHERN MAYORAL CHOICES

 

DOG’S BREAKFAST.

One senses that whoever wins the Labour leadership contest, they will never become Prime Minister and hold real power. So we must look elsewhere for Labour politicians who will affect our lives in the coming years.

The position of elected mayor for the city regions of Liverpool and Greater Manchester seem a reasonably safe bet. I say that with the important caveat that all Labour strongholds in the North may soon come under a challenge from UKIP. But presuming the new leader of UKIP hasn’t had time to get his/her ducks in a row, the two Labour politicians currently being chosen in party ballots in Greater Manchester and the Liverpool City Region will hold significant power.

Only those two areas will have elected mayors next May. Internal squabbling and a government distracted by Brexit has ensured that there will be no great roll out of elected mayors across the North come May.

Leeds may yet get its act together but it has been a painful process with competing demands for a Greater Yorkshire mayor competing with Leeds more city focussed approach. Then there was a fight over transport powers with North Yorkshire. It appears likely that Leeds will do a deal with Craven, Harrogate and Selby but politics is in the background. Some Tory MPs are pressing the new Communities Secretary Sajid Javid for more Tory districts to be included to prevent an inevitable Labour mayor being elected.

Warrington had the same concern in reverse, that an elected mayor including Cheshire could jeopardise Labour’s control of the town. In Lancashire Wyre district continues to hold out against a countywide elected mayor whilst Chorley wants to become a unitary authority.

It is all a bit of a mess. It is what you get when a government decides on the superficially democratic idea of allowing devolution to grow from the bottom up. It is a recipe for petty rivalry resulting in a chaotic pattern that voters don’t understand. We need regional government with only unitary authorities underneath, but we are where we are, so let’s look at who might win the Labour nominations.

TOPPLING BIG JOE?

Joe Anderson has been Labour’s elected mayor for the city of Liverpool for four years. The independent academic Michael Parkinson recently published a glowing report on his success. He listed Joe’s achievements including persuading a Tory government to devolve powers, the International Festival of Business, and the Exhibition Hall; all done against a background of massive public spending cuts. He had also raised the profile of the city, the central aim of this elected mayor project.

Anderson now wants to be mayor of the City Region and needs to deal with the perception that it would always be Liverpool first and Wirral, St Helens and Sefton second.

That is why Steve Rotheram, MP for Walton, is standing on a platform of “No borough left behind.” He says he will give more priority to the needs of the whole city region. He has remained as parliamentary aide to Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn which might go down well with the current Labour membership.

Luciana Berger, MP for Wavertree, is seen as the outsider which is a shame because these positions were meant to see different faces coming to the fore. Her call for fresh leadership following Brexit seems to be falling on deaf ears.

TONY THE MAN TO BEAT.

In Greater Manchester Tony Lloyd is relying on big union support and the fact that he is currently doing the job of interim mayor to see him to the Labour nomination. Dynamic wouldn’t be the first word to come to mind in describing Lloyd’s political style but he has often been underestimated in his climb from Trafford councillor, to MP, to Minister, to chair of the Parliamentary Labour Party before seeing off Lord Smith of Wigan for his current job.

Ivan Lewis (MP Bury South) is bringing dynamism to the race with his challenge that so far the benefits of devolution have not gone far beyond Manchester.

Meanwhile Shadow Home Secretary Andy Burnham says his Cabinet experience will bring heft to the job. He wants more emphasis on council houses instead of plush flats and is challenging the Prime Minister to clarify her position on devolution. The Everton supporting Burnham is battling a perception that he is not Manc enough for the job.

The results of the Labour candidate ballots will be known in early August.