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LEAVING WITH SOMETHING……

As I write the Prime Minister is engaged in an unseemly race with Oliver Letwin to get her deal over the finishing line, before MPs potentially unite behind a customs union and confirmatory referendum on Monday.

I have forecast that her deal will prevail, and still think it might. If the government choose to put Mrs May’s proposal before MPs tomorrow in some form, and it passes the Speaker’s “sniff test”, then the stakes are the highest they have been in this high stakes drama.

If she wins, then the country will have until May 22 to pass the necessary legislation and Mrs May can retire as Prime Minister, partially vindicated. Her approach has been narrow but her task was immense dealing with Brexit fanatics on one side and a slippery Jeremy Corbyn on the other who wanted to leave whilst sharing no responsibility for the terms on which it was done. The Westminster commentators have had her gone almost every month since she took office, but she’s still there. Mrs May has shown extraordinary resilience and has a great deal of sympathy in the country, especially from women.

If she loses the April 12^th deadline hoves into view with the choices being, revocation of Article 50 (too drastic for most MPs) leaving with no deal (MPs won’t allow it) or asking for a long extension which would involve electing Euro MEPs. I think the latter would be the last act of Mrs May.

The other slim possibility is that, if May’s deal is defeated, MPs unite around the two most popular proposals from the indicative votes on Wednesday night. They are to support a customs union and a referendum. It would be very surprising if the government were to adopt that policy and we might then see Oliver Letwin trying to legislate for it.

But would we really see the Dorset West MP taking his bill to the Queen for Royal Assent? “How nice to see you Mr Letwin, but I only deal with Mrs May” might be the royal reply. I am being humorous to show the constitutional contortions we’d then be in.

Many are suggesting there would be a General Election before that happened. It could produce another hung parliament. On the other hand, it could be very bad news for Labour struggling for any sort of opinion poll lead at the moment. The Tories could have a Brexiteer leader pledging a populist hard line on Europe. What would be in the Labour manifesto? Still support for the 2016 Referendum?

SECOND TERM TRUMP?

The smoke coming from Robert Mueller’s gun was hardly detectable when the Special Counsel’s report probing Russian interference in the US 2016 elections, was published.

Donald Trump had always called it a witch hunt, and although that was untrue, we live in an age of instant judgements. The Democrats may want the full report and want to investigate this and that, but the top line is Trump was not found to have committed anything approaching a high crime.

The Democrats have a tough enough job choosing between a moderate and socialist candidate for next year’s Presidential election. They should concentrate on the issues that matter for average Americans and not waste their time investigating Trump.

He is in many ways the worst American President ever, but he has the economy zinging and his base support in place. He will be difficult to dislodge.

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FROM BAD TO WORSE.

The year ends in rancour, with our political system debased and no solution to the Brexit torture.

It has been a black year indeed with Brexit paralysing the government and preventing action on major problems like elderly care, homelessness, food banks, skills and transport.

The Northern Powerhouse has stalled. Whatever good it is doing is being dwarfed by its failure to deliver on its central proposition….connectivity. Five years on from the founding analysis of NP that the great northern cities were close together but badly connected we have seen chaos on the trains and gridlock on the roads, particularly in Manchester. The NP promises another strategic planning document. We’ve had hundreds. We know what the problem is, underinvestment. The timetable crisis in the summer was followed by the December scandal where in the same week passengers were scrambling on overcrowded trains at Piccadilly whilst Crossrail in London was being lined up for a billion-pound bailout.

In a year when business has been treated disgracefully by the politicians with the Brexit uncertainty, we have had the full onset of the retail crisis. Bricks and mortar high street shops just cannot compete with the on-line offer.

Low unemployment and low inflation have been brighter features in the landscape but there remains a sense of uncertainty, not helped by a number of high-profile companies going to the wall. Carillion was one of the most spectacular with serious consequences for a number of construction projects in the North especially the major new hospital in Liverpool.

Another bright feature has been the growing awareness of the damage plastic waste is doing to the planet. Is there some hope that ordinary people have more sense that certain politicians about saving the planet?

Donald Trump’s continuing denial of the existence of climate change is just one of the many criticisms that can be made of this President. Although he lost the House of Representatives in the midterm elections and continues to be surrounded in a myriad of scandals, would you bet on him not getting re-elected in 2020. His supporters see all the media and congressional exposure as a huge plot to get their man. The US economy which is doing well at the moment, will hold the key to Trump’s future.

Finally, to UK politics in a week when we descended to examining the shape of Jeremy Corbyn’s lips in the Stupidgate scandal. Labour continue to trail the Tories in the opinion polls despite the Conservative meltdown. Their success in the local elections in taking Trafford was their only optimistic sign.

You might still have a bet on the Conservatives at least being the largest party at the next General Election, particularly now that we know they will have a new fresh leader. Meanwhile Theresa May has continued to show huge resilience.

For the centre ground it has been a year of further decline. The Lib Dems have continued to be irrelevant under the ageing Vince Cable. Meanwhile in France President Macron, the sole centrist victor in the world in the last few years, has stumbled badly.

So, we prepare to cross the threshold into 2019, in all likelihood the year when we leave/crash out of the EU. An even worse year beckons.

 

 

 

IF THE DEFEAT IS HUGE.

The government is censured. All warehouses in this country for frozen goods are full. Preparations are underway to turn Kent into a lorry park. People are worried they will not be able to gain access to life saving drugs. And for what? A course of action that under ALL circumstances, will leave this country worse off.

Against this background let’s have a look at the myriad of possibilities that will follow next Tuesday’s momentous Brexit vote.

Mrs May might win. If the extreme Brexiteers all take fright following Tory rebel Dominic Greave’s success in getting power to propose motions which could stop or soften Brexit, who knows who might join them just to get out of the EU? Her determination is widely admired in the country. Her opponents are deeply split on all the alternatives.

However, it remains likely she will lose. If it was a heavy 100 vote defeat, she might resign. It is highly unlikely a “coronation” would take place and a bitter leadership contest would take place between remainer and leaver candidates.

Mrs May might want to “take her case to the country”, the words of Jim Callaghan when defeated on a vote of confidence in 1979. She might be prevented by Tory MPs terrified by an election where party candidates would be split between Remain and Leave and where it might be difficult to keep the election on one issue. Labour would certainly want it to be about austerity. Meanwhile what would Labour’s stance be, still respecting the 2016 vote but riddled with vagueness on what else to do about Brexit?

If she loses, a vote of confidence can be expected on Wednesday which she would likely win. If she lost, she would have to resign as Conservative leader and a Tory election would take place as discussed above but the government would stay in place. Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell has floated the idea that Labour could be sent for to form a minority administration at this point.

A SMALLER DEFEAT

If the defeat is less severe, say around 40/50, Mrs May is likely to go back to the EU to try and get some tweaks to the deal, particularly around the Irish backstop.

If she fails, or is defeated again, then a group of Tory ‘suits’ like Damien Green, Oliver Letwin, Michael Fallon and Dominic Greave, backed by Labour’s Hilary Benn, could put down motions to suggest several options, all of which have problems. They would also only be motions. Only the government can stop us leaving the EU on March 29^th by changing the law.

They may suggest postponing the March 29^th withdrawal for further talks. The problem is the European Parliamentary elections are coming up in the summer. If we are still in the EU do we elect MEPs? A new EU Commission has to be chosen. In other words, there will be a long delay.

NORWAY AND CANADA.

The Norway option seems to be attracting support, but it allows free movement, the very thing Leavers were most exercised about. Added to which the Norwegians may not want us in the European Free Trade Association vetoing EU rules that they are quite happy with.

Canada, with or without pluses, would not solve the Irish border issue.

NO DEAL AND ANOTHER REFERENDUM.

There is No Deal peddled by idiots like Boris Johnson or its ugly sister “managed No Deal” which might reduce the lorry queues a bit.

Finally, there is the People’s Vote. One can argue that people are much better informed, and the lies of the Leavers have been exposed. But it would be a very bitter campaign and what’s the question, Deal or No Deal or Deal, No Deal and Remain?

Suppose you got Remain 35%, Deal 34%, No Deal 31%? Is that a mandate to remain in the EU?

By the way, UKIP, which was the cause of all this, is now a neo fascist party with Nigel Farage out and Tommy Robinson in.

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