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LABOUR: HOW NOT TO PREPARE FOR BATTLE.

Suspensions and shouting matches outside TV studios was not an ideal way for Labour to prepare for next week’s local elections. They were already going to find gaining seats difficult due to the election cycle discussed below. The anti semitism issue is important for Labour to sort out but it is also part of the internal campaign against Jeremy Corbyn and his supporters.

With all this said, next week’s electrions will be no easy ride for the Conservatives.

TORIES IN TROUBLE.

It was always going to be a difficult election for the Conservatives. They are facing their first Town Hall elections as the sole governing party since 1997. They are not only distracted by the EU Referendum but are also very split on the issue unlike any other party. The run up to these elections has been less than smooth with the Budget unravelling, Iain Duncan Smith resigning and a growing row over forcing all schools to become academies.

The latter issue is particularly relevant to these local elections. There was a time when education was one of the main battlegrounds between the parties because Town Hall influence in the running of schools was strong. Now the government is hell bent on side lining councillors as it moves towards creating academies in all schools. Not surprisingly many Conservative councillors have reacted angrily to this implied criticism of their role in many high performing schools. The move is hardly likely to raise morale amongst Tories as they fight the local elections.

LABOUR AT ITS PEAK.

Labour has been gaining ground at every local election since the Coalition government came into office in 2010. The last time these seats were contested in 2012, Ed Miliband did particularly well.

Labour controls virtually all the urban councils across the North from the Wirral and Cheshire West and Chester to South and West Yorkshire. The three councils running down the Pennines (Pendle, Calderdale and Kirklees) divide these two areas and are under no one party control. However Labour has them in its sights.

Labour has all the councillors in Manchester(in the interests of democracy and scruitiny it would be handy if some Greens could be elected) and 80 of the 90 councillors in Liverpool. It has gained control of all the district councils in southern Lancashire from Burnley and Rossendale to West Lancashire.

All this means that further gains are going to be difficult for Labour, although they will hope not to fall back.

OTHER PARTIES.

The Coalition years proved devastating for the Lib Dems who are now reduced to defending their heartland in the South Lakes and trying to hold on to minority control in Stockport.

It will be Tim Farron’s first test as party leader. He was elected over Norman Lamb because it was felt he was better placed to rebuild the party through its activist base. Now comes the test. The Lib Dems 6% poll rating has hardly flickered since the General Election but Farron claims they have been making gains in the regular by elections that take place each week without much publicity. Free from governing with the Tories, now is the time the tide must turn for the Lib Dems.

UKIP has generally made slow progress in getting elected to northern councils in recent years, with the exception of Rotherham where the child abuse scandal has dealt a blow to Labour. They have often got substantial votes in wards but fell victim to the voting system. This year they have bigger fish to fry in the EU referendum and are not expected to make a big impression, particularly in the North West.

THE BATTLEFIELD.

Next Thursday a third of the seats on the metropolitan councils of Merseyside, Greater Manchester and West Yorkshire are up for election.

All the seats are up for election in Knowsley and in the unitary authority of Warrington due to new ward boundaries. A third of the councillors on the unitary councils of Blackburn with Darwen and Halton are up for election.

A few shire district councils have a third of their seats up for election. They are Burnley, Chorley, Craven, Harrogate, Hyndburn, South Lakeland, Rossendale and West Lancashire.

Few councils will change hands. The Conservatives will be keen to cling on to their slim majority on their only metropolitan council of Trafford and if they are to make gains, these are most likely in Rossendale and possibly West Lancashire.

Labour will battle for Trafford too but are also targeting Pendle, Calderdale and Kirklees whilst the Lib Dems would like to edge towards the 31 mark needed for control of Stockport. They are currently on 26.

MAYORAL CONTESTS.

Jo Anderson is expected to defeat the challenge of six other candidates to win a second term as elected mayor of Liverpool. The Lib Dems and Conservatives have good candidates in veteran Richard Kemp and charismatic businessman Tony Caldeira respectively but Anderson won in 2012 with nearly 60% of the vote. He doesn’t plan to stay long as he wants to contest the Liverpool City Region elected mayor post next year, but other Labour figures may want to be nominated for that role too.

In Salford Labour’s Paul Dennett will take over from the retiring Ian Stewart.

“A CLUB WILL GO BUST”

How many times have you heard that forecast as the football season gets underway? We all know that the financing of football is crazy. We all know that the forthcoming season will produce stories of clubs tottering on the brink of oblivion. But it never happens does it?

I say never. Maidstone United seems to be dead and buried but Accrington Stanley and Aldershot have risen from the grave and Portsmouth stagger on. Fan loyalty comes to the rescue when all the red financial lights are on.

But could Portsmouth or even Blackburn Rovers go out of business for ever? A recent Downtown seminar on football heard the forecast repeated that this season one or more of our clubs will bite the dust.

That wasn’t the only startling forecast by Alan Switzer; Director in Deloitte’s Manchester based Sports Business Group as he presented the company’s annual review of football finances.

He also believes UEFA are serious about enforcing their financial fair play rules. The burning question here is would UEFA devalue the Champions League by telling Manchester City, for instance, that they can’t play in the 2014/15 competition if they are not breaking even?

Alan believes there might be some leniency if the direction of travel is right and developments around youth academies will be exempt. However he is in no doubt that UEFA are determined to bring an end to the precarious arms race that is afflicting so many clubs.

Deloitte’s figures are staggering. Premier League average salaries are over a million a year whilst in Division Two it is£47,000. Soon the Championship play off match will be for £150m; even Sky won’t need to hype that! The Premier League wages to turnover ratio is 70%. Most significantly profit levels are flat.

Why the alarm with the new Sky/BT deal coming along worth £3 billion? It may be an opportunity for clubs to put their finances in order, but that would be a triumph of hope over experience. It seems more likely that the poor old fans will see their viewing subscriptions soar up in order to put even more money in players’ wallets.

Alan Switzer produced a graph showing that success was linked to the money clubs spent. There are exceptions like Blackpool’s glorious adventure but generally you get what you pay for.

Is there a tipping point where Sky won’t be able to milk the fans anymore? The seminar heard that increasingly pubs are struggling to pay to show the matches.

The big kick off will soon be with us, but first it’s wall to wall Olympic Games.
North West companies have benefited from Olympic orders. Watson Steel of Bolton, Ainscough cranes from Wigan and Glasdon recycling based in Blackpool being among them. But let’s not kid ourselves it’s London and the South East, the region that least needs it that is benefiting most.

However let’s hope it all goes well and reflect on the fact that without the success of the Commonwealth Games in Manchester ten years ago, none of this would be happening.

WOMEN IN POLITICS: MORE TO DO

Would Emmeline Pankhurst be proud of the progress that Blair’s Babes, Gordon’s Girls and Cameron’s Cuties have made in breaking the glass ceiling in British politics?

One thing’s for certain the Suffragette leader of a hundred years ago would be appalled that the popular press can still get away with the sexist headlines that so often accompany commentary on the role of our female MPs at Westminster.

Despite women only shortlists and determined drives by political parties to rectify the problem, there is still a lack of women in leadership roles at Westminster and in our Town Halls.

You would expect that the greater the number of women MPs and councillors would lead to more of them emerging into top jobs, therefore the following statistics are worrying.

Men outnumber women 4 to 1 in Westminster, at this rate it will take another fourteen General Elections for parliament to reflect the population it purports to represent.

Only 5 out of 23 cabinet ministers are women. Just 31% of councillors are female and 13% of local council leaders are women.

The Town Hall figures contradict the notion that women find it easier to be involved in local politics. The argument goes that as the activity is local it is easier for women to manage the demands of work and family.

We can all recall some formidable female local government leaders in the North West and more widely. Louise Ellmann, the current MP for Liverpool Riverside, had her most prominent years in politics as leader of Lancashire County Council.

At County Hall in Preston in the 1980s she developed the then pioneering notion that local government could be a partner with business in creating jobs. Lancashire Enterprises was her vision.

Politicians on police authorities have recently been accused of being low profile. That charge could not be laid against Margaret Simey in Merseyside and Gay Cox in Greater Manchester. In the troubled early 1980s these chairs of their respective police committees were more than a match for powerful Chief Constables Ken Oxford and James Anderton.

Turning to the present, Marie Rimmer gives robust leadership to St Helens council, fiercely protecting what she sees as the interests of her town from the potentially overbearing influence of Liverpool.

But these women are the exception. Down the years and across the region the vast majority of Town Hall leaders are men.

When it comes to the Chief Executives of our local councils, the position is very different. Salford,Wigan, Trafford, St Helens, Knowsley and Cheshire East are among the authorities with a woman on top.

The reason for this perhaps gets us to the heart of the problem of why there aren’t more prominent women in politics.

Although Chief Executives work hard, they owe their positions to competitive interview. It’s a process that generally leads to appointment on the basis of ability. Once in post, the employment contract goes a long way to protecting job security.

To become leader of a council, you first have to get selected by your party, then elected to the council, then get elected by your group to the position of leadership. It involves the sort of 24/7 commitment that few women can contemplate. It is also often a very male world of clans, macho politics and the pub.

I realise I am generalising here. I have personal knowledge of men who have taken on domestic responsibilities to allow their partners to pursue a political career, but they are the exception.

Now let us turn to Westminster where some parties have introduced artificial methods to boost the female count. Labour’s women only shortlists and the Tories A-list of candidates being the most promising examples.

In the eighty odd years between 1918, when women first stood for parliament, and 1997 when MPs first entered parliament from women only shortlists, progress was slow. Parliament remained largely male, pale and stale.

However those women that did break through made a big impression. It may be their rarity value that drew the public’s attention but the North West had a remarkable collection of women MPs amid the massed ranks of the men in the post war years.

Leading the way was Barbara Castle. The MP for Blackburn for over thirty years. In her ministerial posts she introduced seat belts, the breathalyser and earnings related pensions. As First Secretary she fought a mighty battle with the unions on curbing wildcat strikes.

She thrived under the patronage of Labour Prime Minister Harold Wilson, one of the few holders of that office to actively promote women. She was sacked by Wilson’s successor Jim Callaghan, a product of the male and stale trade union brigade.

Bessie Braddock was elected at the same time as Red Barbara and although she never held ministerial office, she was a major figure inLiverpool politics for thirty years. Gwyneth Dunwoody served Crewe for even longer and made ministers that appeared before her Transport Select Committee tremble. Angela and Maria Eagle have made their mark in the last fifteen years representing Merseyside seats.

On the Conservative side Margaret Thatcher had to battle male prejudice before rising to the top job as did Lynda Chalker in Wallasey and Dame Elaine Kellett-Bowman in Lancaster, one of the last Tory dames to grace the back benches.

It was always said that Conservative women were the main block on female advancement in the party, believing for a long time after it became publicly unfashionable, that a woman’s place was in the constituency helping her male MP husband. That way they got two for the price of one.

The lack of women MPs has been a severe problem for the party that should find it most easy to select females, the Lib Dems. They have 7 women MPs out of 57 and they are all in marginal seats. 2015 could see the party with no female representation at Westminster at all.

Sporadic attempts to introduce quotas or women only shortlists have been thwarted by activists who have argued that such methods are fundamentally illiberal.

Will women make the breakthrough to equality of representation at Town Hall and Westminster? It is difficult to be optimistic particularly because one senses an irritation when the issue is mentioned. There’s a feeling that the matter has been dealt with or not enough qualified women put themselves forward.

The only hope lies in a fundamental shift in the way we do politics. The Bradford West by election showed that there isn’t much enthusiasm for the conventional parties or the way they do politics. Perhaps a breakdown in traditional allegiances will lead to new parties with greater appeal to women to put themselves forward.

JOBS, MAYORS AND WIRRAL IN A WHIRL

Who’s going to pull us out of this economic mess? Big companies, SMEs, or the North West’s answer to Mark Zuckerberg lurking on one of our university campuses like Lancaster or UCLAN?

Unemployment might top three million by year end according to some forecasters.

Certainly last week’s jobless figures did nothing to raise spirits in manufacturing areas like Lancashire.

Hard on the heels of the unemployment statistics came news of disappointing sales results at BAE Systems. That’s a big company employing thousands of people at Warton, Salmesbury and Chorley.

They’ve been hit by falling defence orders and may lose a major contract for Eurofighter Typhoons for the Indian air force to the French. It should be pointed out however that Dassault Aviation is only the preferred bidder and frantic efforts are being made to ensure all is not lost.

Then there’s AstraZeneca employing three thousand people at Alderley Park in Cheshire. There’s another giant in the job cutting business because producing new highly profitable drugs is getting more difficult.

Finally in this catalogue of tottering titans, we have General Motors which owns the Vauxhall plant at Ellesmere Port. Despite a highly efficient and cooperative workforce, the American based management is reported to be contemplating cuts in its European operations here and in Germany.

So what’s to be done? BAE, AstraZeneca and Vauxhall are big potatoes in the North West economic stew. If they are downsizing, where are the jobs to come from?

The Institute for Public Policy Research North published a report last week that might provide part of the answer.

The document “Beyond bricks and mortar boards: universities and the future of regional economic development”, points out that knowledge-based industries employing staff with high level skills will see the most significant growth in job creation by the end of the decade.

So universities like UCLAN will be central to skill creation, but the report says there needs to be wider recognition of the role universities can play in the North West economy.

As well as producing highly skilled people, the report identifies their economic impact in university towns like Lancaster where high incomes are generated and the institution is a significant employer.

Like everyone else, universities have had to adjust to the new regional policy landscape which has seen the Regional Development Agency and North West Universities Association swept away.

The report challenges the new Local Enterprise Partnerships to make the best use of the universities in this region.

At the launch of the report in Manchester there was an acceptance of this approach, but efforts by a few attendees to trash the reputation of the RDA were resisted. The Vice Chancellor of Manchester Metropolitan University, Prof. John Brooks, was not alone in criticising the lack of regional focus in the new arrangements.

From the rarefied company of academics in Manchester I was quickly back to low politics on Merseyside.

First I dropped in on Alec Salmond charming an audience in St George’s Hall with his demand for Scottish independence. The First Minister is a clever politician lacing his address with references toLiverpooland all the fine football managers his country has bequeathed the city.

I wanted to ask him a key question but wasn’t lucky enough to be called so I’ll ask it here. “Mr Salmond, you have a mandate for a yes/no referendum on Scottish independence. What you don’t have is a mandate to ask a question about ‘ devo max’ which could muddle the answer and would show your lack of confidence that you can get full independence. What’s your answer?’’

Then it was on to Wallasey Town Hall to see the latest chapter in the soap that is Wirral politics. Steve Foulkes has been deposed as Labour leader after just nine months back in office by a coalition of Tories and Lib Dems which may only have three months in power before Labour sweeps back in the May elections.

Wirral was one of the councils most opposed to a city region mayor. I fear they will become increasingly marginalised conducting their power struggles whilst Liverpool benefits from the cash that will follow the election of a mayor.

On that subject I have only one thing to say this week and it is to Phil Redmond. In a Liverpool newspaper, the Tarporley resident tells us he wants to be provided with a series of answers before he deigns to tell us if he’s a candidate or not.

Find out for yourself Phil, and then decide one way or the other. Unlike arty seminars, politics requires decisions.