Tag: General Election

CORBYN SAFE FOR NOW

 

Labour are stuck with Jeremy Corbyn but have little prospect of winning the 2020 General Election. That looks to be the situation with many results still to come in today, including the vital London mayor election.

The Labour leader did better in England and Wales than his critics thought he would, but coming third to the Tories in Scotland means the party will lack the ballast of 40 Scottish Labour seats it would need to win in 2020.

That is why the Shadow Home Secretary and Leigh MP Andy Burnham is considering running for elected Mayor of Greater Manchester. He clearly doesn’t see the prospect of holding one of the major offices of state as very likely in 2020 and may settle for running Greater Manchester. Its a big job but not as big as being Home Secretary. Andy Burnham knows it will be 2025 at least before Labour form a government. By then we may have the realignment of political parties that I have written about before, but for now we must get back to what happened overnight.

Some commentators and Jeremy Corbyn’s enemies were poised to write off the Labour leader overnight.

The truth is that Labour were at a high point going into these elections following years of progress since they lost the 2010 General Election. It is a mystery to me that Labour spokespeople (including Corbyn) didn’t make this point more forcefully. All the easy wards to win had been won in the last five years and further progress would be difficult.

The most interesting northern result so far is in Stockport where Labour look set to gain minority control, ending a long era of the Lib Dems being in charge. On a night when there were signs of a slight Lib Dem recovery, the party self destructed in the town. A botched consultation on the market was followed by a nightmare evening which saw the Lib Dem leader Sue Derbyshire lose her seat and a Lib Dem councillor defect to Labour.

Joe Anderson was comfortably re-elected as Mayor of Liverpool but shortly the city is expected to revert to a leader/cabinet model as Joe stands for election to be Mayor of the Liverpool City Region.

Labour fended off a Tory challenge in West Lancashire but the Conservative flagship council of Trafford remained blue.

So where do the parties stand this weekend as they return to campaigning on the momentous issue of our membership of the European Union?

Parties in government usually start a rapid decline in local support once they are in national office. This hasn’t happened to the Tories despite their splits over Europe, probably because of Labour’s weak leadership and disarray over anti-Semitism. The Conservatives will be encouraged by holding Trafford and the performance of Ruth Davidson, their leader in Scotland, who may have a wider national role one day.

Labour are in stalemate with the results not bad enough for an immediate coup against Corbyn but with no prospect of winning in 2020. The Shadow Chancellor John McDonald has had a good campaign. He appears more sure footed than his leader and if Labour is to have a hard left leader, perhaps it should be him.

Stockport is a further blow to the Lib Dems but partly due to local factors, elsewhere in the North there are signs of a modest recovery after five dreadful years.

UKIP have made a few gains in places like Bolton but their effectiveness in taking decisions on local government issues instead of just banging on about Europe, remains a big question.

Now the battle for our membership of the European Union resumes, let’s see some passion from the Remain camp.

 

ARE THE TORIES GETTING RATTLED?

 

TAX FAIRNESS IS A WINNER.

Labour have had a good week in the General Election campaign. A bold commitment to our European Union membership by Tony Blair followed by the pledge to scrap the tax privileges of most non doms roots Labour as a party of fairness and internationalism.

The Defence Secretary’s highly personal attack on Miliband suggests that the Conservatives are getting worried that the expected surge in their support hasn’t happened. They have been criticised for the negative message of their campaign which can be summarised as “don’t let Ed and his Scottish Nationalist mates wreck our long term recovery plan”.

I still think the Tories will be the largest party after the votes are counted but think that Ed Miliband is making as good a fist of it that he can given his limitations. The non dom initiative was a good move. It plays to people’s sense of fairness. The counter attack has suggested that it might lose the exchequer money rather than bring in extra revenues. We are told many of the non doms will flee abroad. I think that fear is overblown. Most of these people have lived in Britain for ten or twenty years. They love living here and can easily afford the extra tax they should be paying. E£d should call their bluff if, by chance, he gets into power and the Conservatives should consi9der doing the same if they want to shake off the image of being the friends of the rich.

THE NUCLEAR OPTION.

At last the General Election campaign has recognised there is a world out there with issues that matter. The total focus on the economy and the NHS was becoming a bore.

We need to hear about the parties policies for dealing with an increasingly dangerous world. We have a dangerously assertive Russia, widespread terrorist threats and across Europe there are political parties campaigning to fragment the European Union.

On the issue of nuclear deterrence, I actually agree with Defence Secretary Michael Fallon that we need to retain our four boat fleet. Whatever he says that is also the formal stated position of the Labour opposition. As I said in a blog a few weeks ago I doubt that view represents the real feeling of grass root Labour party members who could think of better ways to spend the £100bn through life costs of renewing Trident. However the leadership feel they can’t risk seeming weak on defence so the chances are there will be enough Labour and Tory votes to pass the “main gate” decision early in the new parliament.

For the Scottish Nationalists scrapping Trident is a “red line” issue in any talks to support a Labour minority government. Labour need to rule out any deals with the Scots to end the speculation that a nuclear deal can be done.

CONSTITUENCY FOCUS: WARRINGTON SOUTH.

This is a real test of Labour’s ability to win back the middle class vote won by Tony Blair and lost by Gordon Brown.

The Labour leaning town wards are balanced by Tory support in the more rural communities of Stockton Heath and Lymm. The result could be influenced by what happens to the sizeable Lib Dem vote. In 2010 they got 15,000 votes to Labour’s 18,000 with the Tories just 1500 votes in front.

The Conservative MP David Mowat has been helped with government promises to invest in the transport infrastructure at this pinch point on the North West’s communications map. Labour are working hard to unseat him with their champion Nick Bent, an aide to former Culture Secretary Tessa Jowell.

 

THE RISE OF THE HARD LEFT….AND RIGHT

 

 

THE GREEK EFFECT.

 

What effect will the triumph of the far left in Greece have on our General Election?

 

People across Europe are reacting to years of austerity and the failure of mainstream parties to offer fresh solutions. Greece is an extreme example of how the slump has crushed ordinary people. They have responded with a defiant cry against the attempts to make them obey the economic rules that we must all obey. Whilst some minor debt repayment restructuring might be possible, the fact remains that two things will save Greece. A productive economy and people paying their taxes. I fear the next phase in the Greek drama will be dangerous disillusionment amongst the Greek people when the Syriza politicians are unable to implement policies like hiring ten thousand public sector workers as they bump up against the rules of the Euro Zone and European Central Bank.

 

A far left party in Spain is mobilising to make big gains in its election later this year. With a much bigger economy than Greece, that could pose an even greater challenge to the European financial institutions.

 

Although the UK’s economy is on the mend there are plenty of signs that people are looking for alternatives. On the right there is UKIP, in Scotland the SNP, but the growth in membership of the Green Party could be highly significant. The Greens offer a much more fundamental challenge to the way society is organised with bold policies on energy and taxation. Initial attempts to keep them out of the election TV debates caused a backlash, and quite right too.

 

How will Labour respond if they detect a growing appetite for more radical solutions? Ed Miliband has been inching his party to the left but remains nervous about how it will play in those southern marginals. The issue of our Trident nuclear missiles remains a fascinating issue. I was in the Commons gallery recently where Labour’s spokesman on the issue, Vernon Coaker, pledged the party to approving the “main gate” decision on renewing the four boat fleet. But what if Labour has to do a deal with the anti nuclear SNP after May 7th? Is there really a majority of Labour MPs and activists prepared to stay out of office rather than scrap Trident? We could find that the arguments that beset the party during the leadership of Hugh Gaitskell in the 1960s would resurface.

 

ANOTHER TAWDRY DEFECTION.

 

Politicians sometimes defect on the grounds of principle, but often not. I remember a man called Peter Thurnham, the MP for the highly marginal seat of Bolton North East up to 1997. He tried for the safer prospect of Westmorland and when he wasn’t selected, suddenly discovered he was a Lib Dem.

 

Amjad Bashir, an MEP for Yorkshire and the Humber seems to have even more difficulty in defining his political principles. Following associations with Respect and UKIP he has now joined the Tories. UKIP say they were about to suspend him over various allegations connected to his business and political behaviour.

 

Have the Conservatives done due diligence on this man or are they just like all other parties in being unable to resist defectors to them, however unconvincing they are?

 

 

 

 

 

 

EVEN UKIP CAN’T WISH AWAY THE DEFICIT.

 

 

Readers of my blog will not be surprised by Labour’s desperately close shave in Heywood and Middleton. It was just as important a result as Clacton because of its implications for Labour across the North. As in Scotland Ed Miliband is not cutting through and it’s too late to remove him. Clacton gives UKIP their first MP but Douglas Carswell was the popular incumbent.

 

Following these results it is increasingly difficult to predict which combination of parties will hold power after the General Election. What we can be certain of is that they will face a deficit north of £75bn.

 

Assurances were given in Manchester, Birmingham and Glasgow that balancing the books was the aim. However the pressures of the forthcoming election have led to the usual sweeteners for the voters and some small measures to increase taxes. Nobody dares tell us what governing after 2015 will really be like.

 

Labour is still just in the lead in the opinion polls and yet had the most downbeat conference. The Conservatives convinced themselves Ed Miliband was not going to make it to No 10 and staged a premature celebration. There weren’t a lot of Lib Dems in Glasgow. I know that because a steward ordered me off the balcony seats to make the stalls look more crowded! Those that did turn up appear to have concluded that things couldn’t get any worse and the only way was up.

 

If the General Election was not just months away, Nick Clegg would surely have been held to account for the complete decimation of his councillor base in the North along with the party’s MEPs this summer. Many victims of the Town Hall massacre hadn’t the stomach to come to Glasgow but Chris Davies, the defeated North West Lib Dem MEP, was there and plans to head up the North West Party Association soon.

 

Only Lib Dem MPs have so far been spared the wrath of the voters. They were elected on the very day that the party began to negotiate with the Tories, a toxic deal for many of their followers. Next May they could lose so many seats that their credibility as a coalition partner could be called into question. There was talk in Glasgow of Labour winning most seats, the Conservatives most votes, UKIP coming third but the Lib Dems still being in government with Labour. Would people feel that was legitimate?

 

Nick Clegg will probably take his 2010 stance that he will work with whoever gets the largest number of seats but his activists were pressed to come off the fence at a key fringe meeting. Neil Lawson is in charge of a think tank called Compass. He is Labour but not tribally so. He challenged the Lib Dems to come off the fence and acknowledge their “progressive” nature. Lawson’s key point, which I think has merit, was that faith in the old party structure is breaking down to such an extent that Labour, the Lib Dems,Greens and progressive nationalists are all going to need to get together after future indecisive election results.

 

Nick Clegg pleaded with voters to forgive the Lib Dems for the one promise they had broken (tuition fee rises) and credit them for raising the tax threshold for 25 million people, the pupil premium and keeping right wing Tories in check.

 

Clegg reminded his party that it had split asunder under the strain of coalition in the 1920s and that had not happened this time.

 

It remains to be seen if this was the last time the Lib Dems will hold a party conference while in power for another ninety years.