Tag: Lib Dems

FROM EASTLEIGH TO LIVERPOOL WATERS

Do Peel Holdings have the voters of Eastleigh to thank for the government go ahead for the massive Liverpool Waters project?

 

The decision not to hold a public inquiry is a clear sign that ministers are pinning their hopes on infrastructure growth to get us out of this economic malaise. While it’s true that it will be years before the scheme is completed, the government want to create a sense of momentum and confidence with projects like the Northern Hub, High Speed Rail and Liverpool Waters.

 

The other reaction has been for some Tory ministers to flirt with ever more right wing policies in the face of the UKIP advance. The suggestion that the UK might quit the European Court of Human Rights is a disgrace. The spectacle of the country that stood alone in the Second World War to preserve democracy and liberty, quitting the institution that protects those freedoms is deeply depressing. It would have unforeseen consequences at home and abroad would send all the wrong signals to countries where attachment to democratic values is tenuous.

 

I forecast that the Lib Dems would hold Eastleigh, but that was before the accusations came up about Lord Rennard. Given that and the fact that the by election was caused by the lies of Chris Huhne. Neither of these issues prevented the Lib Dems holding on. Of course this was an ideal seat for them to defend, nevertheless it does suggest that people care less and less about the scandals of the Westminster village and more and more about practical local issues that affect them.

 

It is all part of the huge disengagement people feel with conventional politics. The scale of the disenchantment is now becoming clear whether it be a stand up comedian doing well in the Italian elections or UKIP in Eastleigh. Heaven knows what the American public are making of the continued deadlock between the President and the House of Representatives. I raised this issue with Jack Straw the other day given his long experience in high office and as MP for Blackburn since 1979. He had no clear answer to my question as to when people might trust their politicians again. He did agree with me that apart from issues like expenses and poor moral behaviour, the continuing recession meant that politicians can no longer promise a visionary future of prosperity because they just would not be believed.

 

So where do the parties stand after Eastleigh. Nick Clegg gets a reprieve and the Coalition remains stable but Eastleigh was an ideal seat for them and they won’t be able to put in that massive effort across the country where their poll ratings remain weak.

 

UKIP are on a surge. They have been accused of being a one man band in the shape of leader Nigel Farage, but I thought their Eastleigh candidate, Diane James, was the best of the bunch. Now they face the challenge of the county council elections. What are UKIP’s policies for running Lancashire County Council?

 

Tory backbench reaction remained muted after coming third, but backbenchers remain unhappy with David Cameron and a flat budget might see a summer of discontent.

 

Labour didn’t try in Eastleigh, putting up a candidate who had made highly offensive remarks about Margaret Thatcher. They are still blamed for the economic mess and need to start fleshing out their proposals for the future more.

IT’S NOT GEORGE, IT’S BALLS !

In 1994 in a brilliant piece of conference oratory,Tory Deputy PM Michael Heseltine was describing a complicated speech on economics that had been made by Gordon Brown. It turned out it had been written by his researcher Ed Balls. So Hezza was able to tell the conference the speech wasn’t Brown’s it was Balls.

 

The Autumn Statement was meant to see George Osborne discredited for having to come to the Commons confessing he’s missed his targets for growth, borrowing and debt reduction. He had to do all those things and the country remains in a dire state. But politics is often about mood and presentation.

 

With a string of announcements to help business, scrapping petrol price increases and measures on tax avoidance, Osborne gave a strong performance in a dire situation. Ed Balls meanwhile was left floundering. An uncertain performance in the Commons will be quickly forgotten. It will be less easy for the Shadow Chancellor and his party to respond to the measures proposed.

 

How for instance will Labour vote on the tiny 1% increase in benefits? Will Labour re-examine its critic of the Coalition that it is cutting too far and too fast whilst there is still political mileage in the claim that Labour got us into this mess? The Private Finance Initiative (PFI) is a case in point. The refurbishment of our schools and hospitals was long overdue but it was an expensive way to do it and the Chancellor’s PFI Mark 2 should ensure that the public purse benefits a bit more in the future.

 

There were a number of measures to help the economy in the North. We are shortly to see the plans for extending high speed rail to Manchester and Leeds. Salford is to get ultra fast broadband. Local Enterprise Partnerships are at last going to get some real money to play with. From 2015 they will be able to bid for a single pot of money covering local transport,housing and skills. More money is being poured into the Regional Growth Fund although it has been weakened by resignations and complaints of slow delivery. The new business bank is to have a billion pounds set aside for SME’s.

 

Finally back to the politics of the Autumn Statement. It is quite possible the UK will lose its AAA rating soon but leading economic commentators like Gillian Tett of the Financial Times and Robert Choate of the Office for Budget Responsibility seem relaxed about that. They claim investors have already factored the downgrade into their calculations. They also argue that most countries are struggling at the moment and the UK won’t be that disadvantaged.

 

Nevertheless the loss of our AAA status would be a blow to the Chancellor who must be hoping his package doesn’t unravel in the run up to Christmas. Memories of the aftermath of the Budget with rows over pasty tax and charities were clearly on the mind of key Coalition Ministers in the run up to the Autumn Statement. The senior Lib Dem Ministers involved in this process, leader Nick Clegg and Chief Secretary Danny Alexander are determined to see the economic strategy through and are working effectively with their Tory counterparts.

 

That reassures the markets, but its a very different picture up North. I was talking last week to a senior ex Lib Dem councillor who gained office when the Lib Dems first started to make an impact on northern councils. He has seen all that swept away. His bitterness was tangible. The price for the Lib Dems signing up to this budget reduction strategy is high.

 

May I wish you as happy a Christmas as austerity will allow.

MERSEY POLICE SHAKE UP AND OTHER POLLS

 

 

Next Thursday across the North West you have the chance to brave the dark and the rain to vote for Police and Crime Commissioners(PCC) in the five force areas in the region. These are new posts where power is being given to one individual to hold the police to account on behalf of the public. They will decide how the budget is spent and will develop a plan to tackle crime.

 

Merseyside police could be in for a big shake up if Jane Kennedy becomes PCC there next Friday.

 

The former Labour MP for Wavertree has ministerial police experience in Northern Ireland, so tackling the bloated bureaucracy of the outgoing Merseyside Police Authority should be a breeze. The authority that once chose Norman Bettison as Chief Constable has 29 committees and a posh headquarters in Pall Mall. All that could be set to change if Jane Kennedy wins.

 

If Merseyside voters don’t want the Labour candidate, they have five other options. Paula Keaveney is the former Lib Dem group leader on Liverpool Council but apart from her party’s dire poll ratings she is faced with the challenge of another ex Liverpool Lib Dem councillor Kiron Reid. He explains his defection from the party by stating that PCCs should be independent of party. Liverpool born Geoff Gubb is standing in the Conservative interest, Hilary Jones for UKIP and Paul Rimmer for the English Democrats.

 

In Greater Manchester another ex Labour MP, Tony Lloyd, seems assured of victory. The only question is why the ex Central and Stretford MP would want to give up a safe parliamentary seat and chairmanship of the Parliamentary Labour Party to take on the crime problems of this large urban force area.

 

For the Lib Dems, Matt Gallagher brings 30 years of frontline policing to his candidature. The problem is that his party has been haemorrhaging councillors across Greater Manchester in the last two years. Michael Winstanley represents the Conservatives, Steven Woolfe UKIP and Roy Warren is an independent candidate.

 

The outcome of the elections is less clear in the three remaining police force areas. Labour’s candidate in Lancashire Clive Grunshaw will face a spirited challenge from Tory Lancashire County Councillor Tim Ashton who’s pledging to end what he calls a “softly softly” approach to crime. Afzal Anwar stands for the Lib Dems and Rob Drobney for UKIP..

 

Cheshire may provide the closest contest. A former Assistant Chief Constable for the county,John Dwyer is the Tory candidate. Halton councillor John Stockton opposes him for Labour. Cheshire businesswoman Sarah Flannery is attracting some support for her independent candidature. Ex Macclesfield councillor Ainsley Arnold represents the Lib Dems and Louise Bours UKIP.

 

In Cumbria Patrick Leonard is standing in his first election for Labour. Barrister Pru Jupe represents the Lib Dems, magistrate Richard Rhodes the Conservatives and Mary Robinson is an independent.

 

Crucial to the success of these new Commissioners will be their relationship with their Chief Constables. Under the old police authorities there were major battles between the senior police officers and the authority chairs. Remember Margaret Simey and Ken Oxford on Merseyside and Gay Cox and Jim Anderton in Greater Manchester.

 

Operational matters are to remain with the Chief Constables under the new arrangements, but what is operational and what is a pet project of a newly mandated Police and Crime Commissioner. The potential for conflict is there.

 

 

MANCHESTER CENTRAL BY ELECTION.

 

I had the pleasure of hosting a hustings meeting for the parliamentary by election caused by Tony Lloyd’s decision to contest the post of PCC for Greater Manchester.

 

The Friends Meeting House was full to hear from ten of the eleven candidates standing. Labour’s Lucy Powell is certain to win but most of the candidates put up a good show. I was particularly impressed with the fresh approach to politics of Loz Kaye of the Pirate Party and Catherine Higgins of Respect. While her party leader George Galloway is all about himself, Catherine was all about the people of Hulme and Moss side where she lives.

 

I did get a bit exasperated with Peter Clifford of the Communist League who gave the same answer about the crisis in capitalism to all questions including one on fluoridation!

 

The by election is also on Thursday along with the PCC elections.

“NO MONEY LEFT”- NOW TAKE US SERIOUSLY

Liam Byrne might have thought he was being funny leaving a card on his desk saying there was no money left as he left office as Labour’s Chief Secretary to the Treasury. Actually Liam, it was arrogant, poor politics and sums up why people might not vote Labour back to power in 2015.

 

However the polls are looking good for Ed Miliband as he arrives in Manchester and people are starting to take Labour seriously again. So this week’s conference needs to give us some idea where the party stands on the major issues of public finances and growth.

 

Rachel Reeves now shadows Liam Byrne’s old job and made an impressive appearance at a Downtown event in Liverpool a year ago. What we need from her and Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls is not a detailed budget but some financial principles.

 

All political parties are already looking to the post 2015 years. George Osborne wants £10bn more cuts. Nick Clegg’s Liberal Democrats made it clear at their conference they won’t be bound beyond 2016. What will Labour do, reverse such cuts or stick with them? The public sector unions are waiting for an answer in Manchester.

 

Public sector reform is looming as a massive issue. Blair said he had scars on his back when he wrestled with this issue. But the economy in 1997 was very different from now. Councils and the health service are going to have to do things differently. Will we hear Labour’s meaningful thoughts on this in Manchester?

 

What Labour won’t need if they get back to power is a rerun of the Blair/Brown feud in the shape of the two Eds. Shadow Chancellor Ed is prone to defend Gordon Brown’s record. Ed Miliband points out that Labour presided over widening inequalities. The rivalry isn’t intense yet but the potential is there.

 

LABOUR AND THE LIB DEMS.

 

While I was in Brighton, I attended some meaty fringe meetings. Meaty in the sense that the Lib Dems were trying to get to grips with two key issues for the future. Do they disengage from the Coalition at any point and what are the prospects of partnering with Labour after 2015?

 

On unzipping the Coalition, Tim Farron was not a fan. He’s the Party President and I think a potential leader. The Westminster scribes write him off probably because he comes from the North and will always look a bit young. Farron told a fringe meeting that breaking up the Coalition would just let Tory Ministers in and would lead to the accusation that the Lib Dems were unreliable allies who couldn’t stay the course.

 

Caroline Lucas, the Green MP for Brighton was at the fringe and felt the Lib Dems should get out fast. The cuts were bringing real hardship to the most vulnerable in our society and the Lib Dems were doing serious damage to their reputation by staying in the Coalition she asserted. Making the Tories less nasty didn’t do it for her.

 

Lord Chris Rennard who cut his teeth in Liverpool politics in the 1970s was against breaking up the Coalition but did believe Lib Dems had to differentiate themselves in the next two years.

 

Another fringe looked at the possibility of a deal with Labour if there is another hung parliament. Here in the North it’s easy to think that the Lib Dems are natural allies of Labour and what we are witnessing now is an aberration. But down south many rural Lib Dems lean to the right. Nevertheless Labour’s Lord Adonis and MP John Cruddas got a warm reception at the fringe I attended on the prospects of a future Lab-Lib Dem Coalition.

 

Adonis confessed he wished Labour had introduced the Lib Dems’ pupil premium but overall felt the premise on which the Coalition was founded was shattered. The Tories had got their austerity cuts but the Lib Dems had not secured the constitutional reform they craved.

 

It was left to former leader Ming Campbell to make the wisest point. Lib Dem and Labour politicians might be texting each other and getting on well but the whole thing could founder on policy.

 

Quite rightly Ming cited Labour’s political opportunism that had wrecked Lords’ reform. It was a policy Labour had been committed to for years and yet they were prepared to scupper the legislation over the number of days needed for debate in the Commons.

 

By the way, let’s not hear any more about the southern venues being much more congenial for party conferences from a weather point of view. Blackpool strength winds and Manchester volumes of rain poured down on us.