Tag: Scotland

LATE SURGE FOR CAMERON?

 

THE CAMPAIGN.

David Cameron doesn’t really deserve to “win” next Thursday’s General Election, but the Conservatives will probably be the largest party and have first dibs at forming a government.

The Tory campaign has lurched from defending their economic record, to attacking Ed Miliband as a backstabber and latterly depicting Nicola Sturgeon as a female version of William Wallace set to pillage England. There have been a series of retail promises on things like the right to buy and inheritance tax. Some will impress voters but most will ask how the sums will add up. So a bit of a vision less mess really. However it is usually the economy that clinches it, and despite some dodgy figures this week, most people will probably want to give the Conservatives another term to sort things out. However this may be a very late decision by people, on polling day itself, not detected by the opinion polls. As they lift the stubby pencil, is it the devil we know or Miliband?

Ed Miliband has had a good campaign. No gaffs and an increasingly relaxed style combined with the theme of fairness which has been delivered well. However he is coming from a long way back in terms of public approval, people remember the Brown years and he is facing potential wipe out in Scotland. With those handicaps his route to Downing Street looks tortuous indeed. We have to go back to 1923 to find a party that didn’t have most MPs, forming a government. Miliband wouldn’t want to do a deal with the SNP that had just destroyed his party in Scotland and a pact with “the others” looks as incredible in 2015 as it did in 2010.

THE NORTHERN BATTLEGROUND.

Here are the seats to look out for in Downtown land from Leeds to Liverpool in order of their marginality.

Bolton West Lab maj 92: Should have been won by the Conservatives last time. Cameron tells us he only needs 23 seats for a majority. This is one of them.

Lancaster and Fleetwood Con maj 333: Labour’s No 1 target.

Wirral South Lab maj: The Tories held this seat up till 97 and Cameron needs this as part of his 23 for victory.

Morecambe and Lunesdale Con maj 866: Another must win Lancashire seat for Labour.

Weaver Vale Con maj 991: A Cheshire Labour target near George Osborne’s Tatton constituency.

Warrington South Con maj 1553: An intense campaign being waged here as Labour’s task gets harder.

Pudsey Con maj 1659: Labour should take this sort of seat on the outskirts of Leeds in a good year.

Burnley Lib Dem maj 1818: Very tough for the Lib Dems against Labour.

Manchester Withington Lib Dem maj 1894: The Lib Dems are pleading with voters not to make the city a one party Labour state at parliamentary and council level. They may be disappointed.

There are other Labour targets where the Tories have majorities over two thousand. They are Blackpool North, Bury North, Wirral West, Chester, Keithley, Pendle and Rossendale.

The Lib Dems are in a fierce battle with the Tories in Hazel grove and Cheadle and UKIP hope to land a sole North West victory in Heywood and Middleton.

CONSTITUENCY FOCUS: BOLTON WEST.

Julie Hilling’s victory here for Labour in 2010 did great damage to David Cameron’s stature in the eyes of many of his backbenchers. He was not a winner as John Major and Margaret Thatcher had been. The failure to secure an overall majority was because of Cameron’s inability to win seats like this.

Susan Williams, the former leader of Trafford Council, was a great candidate. It will be a tough task for the Conservative standard bearer this time, Chris Green, even though he only has to overturn a majority of 92 in this, the most middle class of the three Bolton seats.

 

MOVE THE BORDER TO THE MERSEY AND HUMBER !

 

NICOLA’S MAGIC TOUCH.

How do we feel Oop North about moving the Scottish border southwards? Then we could benefit from the inspirational leadership of Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party and banish the male and stale politicians who have failed to grasp the full vision of northern devolution?

Nicola is wooing us. Her manifesto calls for a significant increase in infrastructure spending in the North of England. She wants HS2 started from Scotland down to northern England at the same time as the track is laid to Birmingham. She wants a Northern Cities Fund and concludes “while a strong London is good a strong Newcastle and Leeds is better.”

I am not actually serious about the border but we do need a counter argument to the Tory shroud waving about the SNP and how they will dictate the UK budget in a deal with Labour. Firstly I think Labour would rather rule as a minority or with the Lib Dems, Irish and Greens than reach an accommodation with the party that has nearly wiped them out in Scotland. For Miliband to work with the SNP could mean the permanent weakening of Labour north of the border.

Secondly Tory grandees like Lord Tebbitt and Michael Forsyth have warned the Prime Minister that stoking up English fears and resentment about the Scots plays right into the separatist cause.

DON’T LET ME MEET ORDINARY VOTERS.

I used to love the campaign trail, seeing our leaders face to face with the people they sought to represent and being heckled at open to all public meetings.

I am not planning to attend any visits by the party leaders to the North this time because I refuse to be kettled in a press pen to observe Dave, Ed and Nick surrounded by adoring activists keeping everyone else out. We need Mrs Duffy of Rochdale (Gordon Brown’s bigoted woman) to break through the ring and tell them what she thinks.

The campaign managers thinks it makes good telly. Do they really think people are so stupid as to think that their leaders are being universally welcomed in every town. TV producers have a duty to pan away from the tight throng of supporters and show the excluded public beyond.

On a more optimistic note I am pleased to report that hustings in individual seats are alive and well. I’ve hosted ones in Bolton and Hazel Grove with Withington and Chester to come. People still want to turn up at church halls to see their candidates in the flesh rather than communicating via new media.

THE FORGOTTEN ELECTION.

Did you know that on May 7th we’ll also be having a big round of local council elections? There has been virtually no media coverage of the contests for the tier of government that actually delivers most of the services that matter to us. Furthermore with all the promises made about ring fencing the NHS and not putting up VAT and National Insurance, it is likely local government will bear the brunt of the further cuts promised by most parties after the election.

A third of all the metro councils in West Yorkshire, Greater Manchester and Merseyside are up for election. Labour could gain Calderdale and Kirklees and threaten the Tories in Trafford and the Lib dems in Stockport.

There are all out elections in the unitary councils of Blackpool, East and West Cheshire. The latter is the most interesting with Conservative control under threat from Labour. A third of councillors are up for election in the other unitaries, Blackburn and Warrington.

There are full or a third elections in district councils in Lancashire and other parts of the North.

SEAT FOCUS: MORECAMBE AND LUNESDALE.

With a majority of under a thousand Tory David Morris has a fight on his hands to prevent Manchester councillor Amina Lone taking this seat for Labour.

Her strength is in the town of Morecambe and Heysham with its nuclear power station and busy port.

A major road improvement is under way to link Heysham to the M6 and the more Tory voting areas around Carnforth.

Follow me at www.jimhancock.co.uk

2014 DIDN’T ANSWER THE UK QUESTION.

 

 

The Scottish independence vote and immigration into the UK were dominant themes in 2014, but for all the talk little has been resolved. The Scots voted no but the Scottish National Party could soon be holding the whip hand over a weak minority government at Westminster.

 

Then there’s the issue of our national identity. It is becoming clear that we are not going to be able to stop free movement of labour within the EU. So do we feel so passionately about immigration that we want to risk our economic future outside the EU?

 

Both these questions remain unresolved at the end of a year which has seen much debate on how we should be governed both nationally and in the North. Even before the Scottish vote Chancellor George Osborne had launched his northern powerhouse concept. It was the beginning of a period of extraordinary activity by Osborne on this subject. There can be few hi tech or manufacturing plants in the north of England that has not had a visit from George. It culminated in the devolution deal done with Greater Manchester and his insistence on imposing a mayor for the conurbation to be elected in 2017. Similar deals for Leeds, Sheffield and Liverpool have not been concluded as wrangling continues about elected mayors and leadership.

 

The prospect of a powerful Scotland to our north has stimulated debate on what happens outside the city regions. There are signs that Lancashire’s fourteen councils may be getting their act together to bid for a county region and a Yorkshire Party has been formed. I remain of the view that a council of the whole north is the answer. It is already in embryonic form in organisations like Rail North and One North but it should have powers beyond transport.

 

The economy has continued to recover with unemployment falling along with inflation to the point where people are asking if a 1% inflation rate is a bad thing. Strange days indeed for those of us who lived through the roaring inflation of the 1970’s. But issues like low wages, the budget deficit, low growth in Europe, China and Russia remain dark clouds on the horizon.

 

Politically the year has been dominated by the rise of UKIP. In the North West and Yorkshire they secured six MEPs in the European elections, ending the long European career of Lib Dem Chris Davies in the North West. Tory Sir Robert Atkins also left the stage whilst Labour have a completely new team in the region, although little has been heard from them so far. In Yorkshire two stalwarts Richard Corbett (Labour) and Tim Kirkhope (Conservative) survived the UKIP surge.

 

Labour held its two by elections in the North West (Wythenshawe and Heywood) but UKIP’s John Bickley stood in both and came second, indeed he nearly won in Heywood and Middleton. UKIP also got councillors elected, spectacularly so in Rotherham. People keep asking if they have peaked. Not yet it seems.

 

So where do the parties stand at year end. The Conservatives have had a better year because of the economic recovery but still show no sign of getting enough support to win outright in 2015. David Cameron remains unloved by many of his backbenchers.

 

Ed Miliband has had a poor year as Labour leader, but may have picked on a gem of an idea in suggesting the Tories want to make deep cuts for ideological reasons to create a smaller state. However the people’s minds are largely made up against him and the party will have to try and win despite him.

 

There has been little comfort for the Lib Dems in the north. They did hold on to their councillors in places like South Lakes, Southport and Stockport but look set for the day of reckoning nationally in May. The Greens have begun to benefit by attracting disillusioned Labour and Lib Dem supporters particularly on the issue of fracking.

We marked the 100th anniversary of the outbreak of the First World War this year. Our horrors are on a smaller scale than theirs but ISIS and the Taliban remind us that we live in a world where we can land a probe on a distant comet but still resolve our differences in ways little changed from the Dark Ages.

 

Have a peaceful Christmas.

 

 

 

 

NOW MORE THAN EVER, DEMAND A NORTHERN COUNCIL

 

 

SCOTLAND AND THE NORTH.

 

Now we see more clearly what we are going to have to contend with as we try and bring power to the North.

 

We knew about Boris land in the South East and London with its power to drain the brightest talent southwards and its vastly disproportionate transport spending.

 

Now we see the full dimension of the challenge north of the border. The Scottish Government will retain all the income tax raised in Scotland, a share of VAT and power over areas of welfare. Air Passenger Duty will be a devolved power and expect it to be cut. APD is an issue that Manchester and Leeds airports have been campaigning on for years without success. Now they face a competitive disadvantage which could be significant in the border region, particularly Newcastle.

 

The city regionalists have written to The Times along the lines of what’s right for Scotland is right for the cities. Quite right but even our northern cities are not fit for purpose in the new economic landscape. We need to build on the Rail North and One North concepts, adding functions that apply across the North and make it a democratically elected body so that ordinary people have a say.

 

Meanwhile, as I write, we await the Combined Authority deals for Leeds and Sheffield promised by Nick Clegg before the Autumn Statement. On Merseyside the problems continue. Phil Davies, the leader of Wirral and the City Region has now stated that the concept of an elected mayor should be put to a referendum. That is unlikely to please Liverpool Mayor Joe Anderson.

 

JUERGEN SHOWS THE WAY.

 

Business leaders usually recoil when it is suggested they become involved in politics. But with an elected mayor for Greater Manchester on the horizon, it is interesting to see some of the non political names coming forward. For instance Scott Fletcher of ANS Group, and lively contributor to Downtown events, has not ruled himself out.

 

Another man who impressed me this week with his wider skills and vision was Juergen Maier, Chief Executive of Siemens UK. He is also Chairman of the North West Business Leadership Team, an organisation that takes a region wide view on the big issues facing business.

 

It published its business manifesto this week. It calls for action in the areas of skills, transport, world class science and emphasising our energy resources.

 

Speaking to MPs at Westminster Maier made a number of key points including the fact that there are too many skills initiatives for business to cope with. He said devolution had to operate within a national framework to preserve coherence (that is why a constitutional convention is essential). He also showed how far behind we are in only now arguing for HS3. Essen, Dortmund and Cologne were linked 25 years ago. He also hoped the autumn statement might bring economic catapults in precision medicine and energy to the North West.

 

The North needs leaders like Juergen Maier.

 

AUTUMN STATEMENT.

 

Next week’s statement by the Chancellor will be important for northern business. With the election looming we can expect further measures in connection with the “northern powerhouse” as George Osborne seeks to confirm his position as a friend of the north.

 

But we mustn’t be distracted from some hard underlying truths. There are signs that the fragile recovery is stalling, the government has missed its deficit reduction targets by a wide margin and all these city region councils that are going to get devolved powers are facing remorseless cuts in their budgets.