Tag: Scotland

GORDON BROWN TO SAVE UK….AGAIN!

I met Gordon Brown this week for the first time since he was Prime Minister. He is in many ways Britain’s Richard Nixon. Both clever men with a passion for what politics can achieve. Each had a towering achievement. Nixon’s was the breakthrough between the United States and Red China. Brown’s was keeping our cash machines open in October 2008 and leading the world as it reeled from the collapse of Lehman Brothers. But both men’s periods in office ended disastrously partly because they saw enemies around every corner, enemies that had to be crushed.

For the last four years Brown has largely disappeared from front line politics. He has a role with the United Nations but is rarely seen at Westminster. Indeed in a speech this week to Commons correspondents he made a joke of it. He spoke of needing a tour guide and taking the new members induction course. Dangerous stuff, many think he should have left the Commons on ceasing to be Prime Minister as Tony Blair did.

But as one reporter observed, little has changed since Brown’s time in No 10. We still have senior Cabinet Ministers at each others throats and special advisers resigning.

Brown was anxious to point out that he wasn’t seeking to return to the limelight except to be “a foot soldier” in the campaign against Scottish independence.

There has been speculation as to why Brown has, so far, kept a low profile in the debate. Perhaps it was because the Better Together campaign is headed by Alistair Darling who faced the “forces of Hell” when as Brown’s Chancellor he accurately forecast the coming economic meltdown in the summer of 2008.

We will see whether Brown the foot soldier can keep from standing on people’s toes in the coming weeks. His suggestion that the Prime Minister should debate with Alex Salmond has not gone down well. The role of the Conservative Party in the “No” campaign is really tricky. Better Together fear that as the prospect of the Tories being the largest party after the 2015 General Election rises, so does support for independence. So David Cameron has the dilemma of wanting to put his Prime Ministerial authority behind keeping the UK united without helping Salmond to claim that Scotland keeps getting governments it doesn’t vote for.

Brown is clearly unimpressed with the Better Together campaign’s tactics so far. He says they need to avoid it becoming a British politicians v Scotland issue. Scottish identity is not at issue, nor is the existence of the Scottish Parliament with more devolution on the way. All that has been granted. What this is about is severing all links with the UK.

Despite the latest polls showing 58% support for “No” against 42% Yes, Brown fears that if we don’t wake up, Scottish independence could still happen.

Gordon Brown was always more sympathetic to Northern devolution than Tony Blair. That enthusiasm has not diminished. He warned this week that there could be more constitutional turmoil, even if Scotland rejects independence, unless English regions are given more power. He regretted that the Coalition had not taken the opportunity to address these issues as well as Scottish independence.

I wonder why that choice was made by David Cameron. It was because the Scots, and the Welsh, get their act together and demand devolution.

That’s what we need to do starting at Downtown’s Northern Revolution conference next month.

COUNCIL OF THE NORTH TO COPE WITH SCOTS’ POWER

It’s 2018, The United Kingdom of England, Wales and Northern Ireland is out of the European Union with an independent Scotland to its north. The BBC is trying to report all this despite being impoverished by the new subscription system.

I’ve feared this nightmare scenario for about two years and recent events confirm my fears. If you think I am scaremongering, don’t underestimate the political and commercial enemies of the BBC. Don’t underestimate UKIP’s Nigel Farage or the Scottish National Party leader Alex Salmond. Despite all the threats about the currency, major companies threatening to leave Scotland and the President of the European Commission saying it would be extremely difficult for an independent Scotland top join the EU, the polls are tightening north of the border and the “No” campaign is under heavy attack for its negativity.

So where is the debate in Manchester, Leeds and Liverpool? It’s about time business people in the north started to think about the employment and tax implications of an independent Scotland or even a Scotland with “devolution plus” powers.

In search of answers I went almost as far north as one can go in England to listen to a discussion organised by the Institute For Public Policy Research (North) on how we should respond to events beyond Hadrian’s Wall. In Newcastle at least the Geordies are giving it some attention.

There is a view that Alex Salmond didn’t want a vote on independence. It’s only happening because of the introduction of a system of electing a Scottish government by PR to ensure power sharing failed when the SNP got a majority in 2011. And why would Alex Salmond want independence when the other political parties are falling over themselves to appease the Scots’ thirst for power and money? Since 1999 the Scottish Parliament has exercised considerable power,and soon Scotland will set a Scottish rate of income tax and control Stamp Duty and the landfill levy. More is promised if the Scots vote no. The lesson is that the more noise you make, the more you get heard. But by contrast the North of England is bought off by City Deals, Combined Authorities, Elected Mayors, Local Enterprise Partnerships and Regional Growth Funds.

The Chief Executive of Newcastle City Council said these were the instruments she would be relying on as Scots’ power grows. She was challenged on the need for a powerful strategic Council of the North to bring everyone together from Carlisle and Newcastle to Hull and Liverpool.

Professor David Bell, an economics professor at the University of Stirling,said independence or even the extra powers I’ve listed above would leave an imbalance with the North of England that will be unsustainable.

Let’s remember that this demand for Scottish independence has been driven since the 1970s by economic grievances, largely centred on North Sea oil. In that it differs from independence movements in Quebec and Catalonia where political and cultural factors are more to the fore.

Then there is the dramatic effect independence would have on British politics. 59 Scottish Labour MPs would be out of Westminster. The party that relies on London, the north and Scotland to form a government would be very lucky ever to see power at Westminster again. The Tories, with their strength in southern England, would be bound to reflect those interests at the expense of the North.

We need to hope for a no vote, but prepare to welcome the headquarters of Scottish based multi nationals relocating in the North after independence rather than London and demand a Council of the North to give northern business and people real strategic and economic power here

BIG GAMBLE IN SCOTTISH POKER GAME.

While we might be momentarily distracted by the freak weather or the result of the Wythenshawe by election this morning, we need to pay attention to what has just happened in the battle over Scottish independence.

The issue will have big consequences for the economy of the North although debate here has been minimal. Perhaps that will now change because what has happened this week is momentous. For the Conservatives, Labour and the Lib Dems all to say explicitly, and in advance, of September’s vote that there will be no currency union between a continuing UK and an independent Scotland is highly significant.

All talk of keeping powder dry, not showing one’s hand and keeping the Nationalists guessing is out the window. We are now in the business of threats and warnings.

If the Scottish people vote for independence they will either have to invent their own currency or use sterling without any formal agreement with the Bank of England, a risky proposition.

It’s a huge gamble by the unionist parties. It may kill off the lingering possibility of a yes vote. Fear of being personally worse off or risking Scotland’s economy are the key stumbling blocks for Scottish Nationalist leader Alex Salmond. However it could work the other way. The tripartite declaration of war by the unionist parties could galvanise the Braveheart spirit. It could induce a “so be it” mentality amongst wavering Scots.

One has to ask why the unionist parties have taken this step? Up to now the received wisdom was that a yes vote wasn’t going to happen and the less said by politicians south of the border the better. But now we’ve had the Governor of the Bank of England and the Chancellor making interventions in Scotland and David Cameron proclaiming from “Mount Olympus” in London on the issue.

The truth is panic has set in because of a narrowing of the opinion polls.

It may be no bad thing that we are all clear now about what is at issue. I have always thought that Alex Salmond, brilliant politician though he is, was a “cake and eat it man”. Don’t forget he campaigned for a third question on the ballot paper. Devo max would have given Scotland even more devolved power and money, short of independence. That’s what Salmond expected Scots to vote for and David Cameron was right to deny him the fudge.

Salmond used to favour the Euro as his preferred currency but for this referendum had come round firmly to staying with sterling. But an independent Scotland bound into sterling would allow Salmond to pretend he was free whilst retain the insurance that if everything goes belly up, as it did with RBS etc in 2008, he could rely on London bailing him out.

Well now you now Alex, you’d be on your own.

TIME TO NEIGH MR ED!

LABOUR IN BRIGHTON

Why should I let Labour back so soon? That’s the question floating voters will expect an answer to from Brighton next week. We need exciting policies that really differentiates Labour from the Coalition. Perhaps its time for a bit of socialism. For instance take the bedroom tax or spare room supplement. Labour rail against it, there’s a shortage of smaller houses for the folk affected to go to. So will they promise to scrap it….no.

I don’t think we will be inspired by Brighton. Mr Ed is reported to be frightened of disclosing his hand too soon or of having policy ideas blow up in his face. The problem is that people are beginning to make their minds up about the next election. Some have already concluded that Mr Ed is a bit odd, betrayed his brother or the memory of the last Labour government is too green.

Then there is the modest upturn in the economy. That presents a problem for Labour. The Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls is now being depicted as a prophet of doom who’s been proved wrong and Coalition Ministers are saying there has been gain from the pain. The answer to this in Brighton will be that despite the upturn people are still getting worse off because inflation is ahead of wage rises. Who will win this argument?

It’s not all gloom for Mr Ed. Arguably he helped create the breathing space for an alternative solution to air strikes in relation to Syria’s chemical weapons Also I don’t expect the conference to be derailed by a row with the unions. Mr Ed is on to something in wanting real Labour supporters involved in the party rather than being token ones on union membership lists. Whatever the merits of the issue, a floor fight was averted at the TUC and it surely will be in Brighton.

FREE SCOTLAND.

I’ve been north of the border this week and have got the full force of the Scottish independence debate. With a year to go until this decision is made I went to the old fruit market in Glasgow where my old Radio Manchester colleague Victoria Derbyshire was conducting a debate. She had supporters of both sides and a large number of people undecided because in their heart they want to be free but fear cutting ties with England might hit their living standards.

In the debate broadcast on BBC Radio 5 Live, passions were highest amongst those wanting independence and their indignation about being ruled by Conservatives at Westminster when they are virtually non existent in Scotland was a major cause.

STRAIN ON THE CABLE.

The Business Secretary Vince Cable got a taste for the spotlight when he did that Strictly cameo in 2010. He spent the whole of last week in Glasgow drawing attention to himself. He was going to stay out of the economic debate, then he arrived surrounded by cameras. Then he was rude about the Tories to the consternation of the right of his party, and he finished up saying the Coalition might collapse before the election.

Anyway my time in the Scottish capital was not wasted, so here’s the gossip.

I heard a rumour that the LIVERPOOL ARENA has extracted generous compensation from the Lib Dems following the party’s decision to pull out of their planned conference in the city next autumn because of a clash with the Scottish Referendum…….opinion is divided on whether North West MEP CHRIS DAVIES can hold his seat against the UKIP onslaught in next May’s European elections……HAZEL GROVE Lib Dems are warning party HQ not to interfere if Sir Andrew Stunell stands down and they have to choose a new candidate…..and CLLR BILL WINLOW is enjoying his role as Scrutiny supremo at Lancashire County Council. The Lib Dems are supporting the minority Labour administration and according to Bill he gets first sight of most of the policy ideas.

Now let’s see if Brighton rocks!