Category: General Election

ARISE THE SABOTEURS!

 

THE PURPOSE OF PARLIAMENT MRS MAY.

We really are in worrying times. I suppose I shouldn’t rise to the bait of the Daily Mail who have characterised this opportunistic General Election as an opportunity to “crush the saboteurs”. (That’s all of us who believe that Britain should remain in the EU and those who at least want the Single Market). After all the Mail has form. They recently dubbed judges “enemies of the people” for insisting Parliament have a say on Article 50. But in their dark past they published a headline “Hurrah for the Blackshirts”. That was a reference to Oswald Mosley’s Blackshirts.

But if we can regard the Mail as being the mouthpiece of an ugly middle England which we rather didn’t exist, the really worrying development is the attitude of the Prime Minister to dissent. She is going to the country because the opposition parties in the Commons and Lords are doing their job in scrutinising the Brexit process. She says while the country is “increasingly united, Westminster remains divided.” The country is not united, 48% of us voted to remain and Westminster should be divided, it’s a place where parliamentary debate should be taking place for heaven’s sake.

Mrs May says Westminster is holding up her plans for Brexit. The last time I looked MPs gave Article 50 a thumping majority. Since then preparations were underway for the Brexit talks to begin.

All was calm until another set of opinion polls showing Labour in a dire state destroyed May’s claims to be a calm honest woman and showed her as a political opportunist. This election is all about cutting and running ahead of economic shocks ahead and a Brexit negotiation which will leave us with a whacking bill, immigration still high and a worse trade deal with Europe than we have now. Mrs May wants to be able to stay in power till 2022 to try and ride out the storm of unpopularity that will follow Brexit. That is why she has gone to the country now and that is why those who want to stop Brexit in its tracks now have a slim chance of doing so.

It is a slim chance because Labour are hopeless on this issue. Corbynistas secretly hold their 1980’s belief that the EU is a capitalist club. Labour moderates have failed to leave and form a pro-European centre party. Most Labour MPs have voted for Article 50 and the early General Election. There was a case to be made for the Fixed-term Parliaments Act. Do we really want to go back to the time when the final two years of a parliament is dominated by endless speculation about when the General Election is going to be held? Why didn’t Labour say this and speak up for the people who are sick of trekking to the polls?

We are told this is because they would be voting to prolong a Tory government till 2020. Well by voting for May’s cut and run they have probably extended Tory rule till at least 2022.

Only massive support for the Lib Dems can thwart May’s plan. Tim Farron’s party are the brave clear standard bearers for Europe but they have a huge task. Have memories of their time in Coalition faded? If so some Tories are vulnerable to them, not so much in the far South West which voted Leave but in the West country around Bath and South West London. The Lib Dems lost a lot of seats in Scotland but winning them back from the SNP who share their views on Europe is going to be very difficult.

BRING BACK MARTIN BELL!

And finally, did you notice that George Osborne has decided not to contest Tatton. I wonder how his local party, which only recently pledged their support for him, feel now? The constituency needs the return of Martin Bell. They voted for him twenty years ago.

LONG MARCH BACK FOR THE LEFT

 

EARLY MOVES.

Despite the smorgasbord of left wing parties on offer at the General Election, the Conservatives sail serenely into total control.

It could well be a ten year journey for Labour. Their banker seats in Scotland have been wiped out and the Tories will put through boundary changes that will cost Labour twenty seats.

There are serious worries amongst Lib Dem insiders about whether they can survive financially. The cost of lost deposits alone is huge.

The Greens are likely to remain victims of the first past the post system which the Conservatives won’t change.

The first step on that road needs to be a really radical debate, it could even include a discussion about a merger between Labour, The Lib Dems and Greens. The scale of the left’s defeat means it is a time when the possibility of ending tribal divisions should at least be considered.

The early moves amongst the defeated are encouraging. Westmorland’s Tim Farron is clearly the best person to lead the Lib Dems make a clean break with the taint of tuition fee and Coalition betrayal. Insiders tell me that party grandees are pushing the nonentity Norman Lamb but the battered grass roots activists will back one of their own, Tim Farron.

Labour’s National Executive were right to play their leadership election long to allow for a full inquest to take place, then getting a strategy to win in southern England, then choose a new leader.

ERIC PICKLED.

The best news from the Prime Minister’s reshuffle has been the sacking of Eric Pickles as Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government. From scrapping the Regional Development Agencies to his futile attempt to force councils to do weekly bin collections, he has been uninspiring and useless.

In comes Greg Clarke, a good appointment. We are already familiar with him in the North as Cities Minister. He has been at the heart of the Northern Powerhouse and City Deals and is a pragmatic Tory. However he is committed to insisting on elected mayors in return for devolution. So Leeds may have to rethink its opposition to the post if it wants Manchester style powers.

CHESTER: THE RED CAPITAL OF CHESHIRE.

Not only did the parliamentary seat go narrowly to Labour, but on Saturday evening exhausted count staff eventually produced a one seat victory for the party on Cheshire West and Chester Council.

Labour also took West Lancashire Council but apart from that there was little change in the North West and Yorkshire. This is not surprising because Labour has made major advances in the Coalition years and reached its high watermark last year.

VERY LATE SWING TO THE TORIES.

It begins to look as if the Tories had a narrow lead in the polls from last autumn and then had a late surge on polling day. One insider told me it was so late that he saw a number of ballot papers with initial x for Labour scratched out with the voter then supporting Labour.

 

UK SET FOR BREAK UP.

 

The strain on the unity of the UK is very great in the wake of the General Election. Scotland has voted massively for the Scottish National Party. England has reacted by backing the Conservatives. The Scots complaint that they never vote Tory but frequently get Conservative governments has been reinforced.
The fact that they ignored Labour’s warnings that a vote for the SNP would let in David Cameron, merely shows their total determination to express their frustration.
Although the SNP’s MPs have been elected to the Westminster parliament and the election was not a vote for a new independence referendum; the probable dynamics of the next few years point in that direction.
Far from being the power brokers at Westminster, the SNP will be shut out in the face of this unexpected Tory majority. Furthermore we will now have a referendum on our membership of the European Union. As I have argued before, there is a real prospect of a no vote. If the SNP isn’t already demanding a second independence referendum; they certainly will do as they are dragged out of the EU by English votes.
I thought the Tories would get the credit for the improvement in the economy but didn’t expect them to be rewarded with a majority. Nor did I expect the Lib Dems to be so brutally punished for their decision to go into coalition.
The parties performances across the North of England told the tale of the night. Labour did well in areas like Merseyside. They increased their majorities and took seats like Chester and Wirral West; although in the latter case the loss of Esther McVey as the sole Tory voice for the area may prove a disadvantage.
Around the Pennines Labour’s results were poor. Ed Balls defeat on the outskirts of Leeds attracted most attention but Labour missed target seats from Pendle to Pudsey.
The Lib Dems terrible night saw them lose their trio of seats from Withington to Hazel Grove. Ukip got impressive votes but no cigar in terms of seats.
Now we wait to see where the Tories will make twelve billions of cuts and whether the Northern Powerhouse will be fully developed across the north.

A FRENZY OF PROMISES

THE IMF’S VERDICT ON RETAIL POLITICS.

 

The more the opinion polls stay stuck, the greater the frenzy of politicians to try and get them moving in their favour by a series of uncosted promises.

All parties are guilty of it to some extent but the Conservatives are particularly guilty. This was encapsulated by the here today and hopefully gone tomorrow Communities Secretary Eric Pickles. He announced the other day that workers would be given three paid days off to do community work. When he was asked how organisations like the NHS were going to pay the huge cost of employing people to cover for absent colleagues, he had no answer. He was reduced to saying “they’ll find a way.” When pressed by the exasperated interviewer, Pickles tried humour saying his answers were getting in the way of the BBC’s questions. Very droll Eric but not good enough.

The questions about where the cuts are going to be made will continue to be asked but the truth is no politician is going to risk pinpointing the specific groups who are going to face cuts until after the election. You can see why but it all adds to the rampant distrust that voters have for those standing for election.

Thank heavens for Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies. As the promises flow from the manifestos, he points out how many are uncosted. He also bemoans the short sightedness of this frenzy of retail politics. For instance in the housing field what we need are comprehensive plans to build more homes not the gimmick of selling off housing association properties.

Thank heavens also for the International Monetary Fund which has forecast that at the end of the next parliament, far from having a £7bn surplus, we are likely still to have a deficit. With all these spending promises and the likelihood of a Tory minority government being unable to force through big cuts, the IMF forecast has the ring of truth.

BE FAIR TO LEEDS!

There will be little reporting by the media of the manifesto promises on devolution for the north.

The Conservatives confirm their support for the Northern Powerhouse, HS2 and 3, and science research. The Liberal Democrats would pass a Devolution Enabling Act to allow for the possibility of a Yorkshire Assembly.

Unlike the Tories, Labour are not demanding elected mayors in return for devolution. Hilary Benn, the shadow Communities Secretary says it is unfair for Leeds to have been given less powers than Manchester because it would not bend the knee to the concept of an elected mayor. Labour is also offering devolution to county regions. It is time Lancashire and Yorkshire’s needs were recognised alongside the cities.

CONSTITUENCY FOCUS: HAZEL GROVE.

Can the Liberal Democrats hold on to one of their safer seats in the North when the incumbent MP has retired? Andrew Stunell was the member for nearly twenty years and it could be difficult for Lisa Smart to retain the constituency even though she has been bequeathed a six thousand majority. Ms Smart was chief executive of an international development charity in London. If she does hold on she will help to redress the male domination of the parliamentary Lib Dem party.

Hoping to win the seat for the Tories is teacher and local resident William Wragg. His top issue is reform of the business rate. Hoping not to be squeezed out by the Lib Dem/Tory fight is Labour’s Michael Taylor, a familiar figure to Downtown in Business members, he wants a workforce that can make Britain competitive.

Votes lost by the Conservatives to UKIP could be crucial here. UKIP’s candidate is financial advisor Darren Palmer.