Category: General Election

ARE THE TORIES GETTING RATTLED?

 

TAX FAIRNESS IS A WINNER.

Labour have had a good week in the General Election campaign. A bold commitment to our European Union membership by Tony Blair followed by the pledge to scrap the tax privileges of most non doms roots Labour as a party of fairness and internationalism.

The Defence Secretary’s highly personal attack on Miliband suggests that the Conservatives are getting worried that the expected surge in their support hasn’t happened. They have been criticised for the negative message of their campaign which can be summarised as “don’t let Ed and his Scottish Nationalist mates wreck our long term recovery plan”.

I still think the Tories will be the largest party after the votes are counted but think that Ed Miliband is making as good a fist of it that he can given his limitations. The non dom initiative was a good move. It plays to people’s sense of fairness. The counter attack has suggested that it might lose the exchequer money rather than bring in extra revenues. We are told many of the non doms will flee abroad. I think that fear is overblown. Most of these people have lived in Britain for ten or twenty years. They love living here and can easily afford the extra tax they should be paying. E£d should call their bluff if, by chance, he gets into power and the Conservatives should consi9der doing the same if they want to shake off the image of being the friends of the rich.

THE NUCLEAR OPTION.

At last the General Election campaign has recognised there is a world out there with issues that matter. The total focus on the economy and the NHS was becoming a bore.

We need to hear about the parties policies for dealing with an increasingly dangerous world. We have a dangerously assertive Russia, widespread terrorist threats and across Europe there are political parties campaigning to fragment the European Union.

On the issue of nuclear deterrence, I actually agree with Defence Secretary Michael Fallon that we need to retain our four boat fleet. Whatever he says that is also the formal stated position of the Labour opposition. As I said in a blog a few weeks ago I doubt that view represents the real feeling of grass root Labour party members who could think of better ways to spend the £100bn through life costs of renewing Trident. However the leadership feel they can’t risk seeming weak on defence so the chances are there will be enough Labour and Tory votes to pass the “main gate” decision early in the new parliament.

For the Scottish Nationalists scrapping Trident is a “red line” issue in any talks to support a Labour minority government. Labour need to rule out any deals with the Scots to end the speculation that a nuclear deal can be done.

CONSTITUENCY FOCUS: WARRINGTON SOUTH.

This is a real test of Labour’s ability to win back the middle class vote won by Tony Blair and lost by Gordon Brown.

The Labour leaning town wards are balanced by Tory support in the more rural communities of Stockton Heath and Lymm. The result could be influenced by what happens to the sizeable Lib Dem vote. In 2010 they got 15,000 votes to Labour’s 18,000 with the Tories just 1500 votes in front.

The Conservative MP David Mowat has been helped with government promises to invest in the transport infrastructure at this pinch point on the North West’s communications map. Labour are working hard to unseat him with their champion Nick Bent, an aide to former Culture Secretary Tessa Jowell.

 

CBI CONFUSED ON DEVOLUTION

A CONSTITUTIONAL CONVENTION IS ANSWER FOR BUSINESS

The Confederation of British Industry has a confused position on devolution. This week its Director General, John Cridland,described the plethora of regeneration schemes like City Deals and Growth Funds as “a tower of Babel” that business had to try and cope with. He also complained about the multiple tiers of government, particularly with local councils in the shires, and accused politicians of doing devolution by deadline with back door deals. He told an audience in Manchester we needed to take things gradually and allow all voices to be heard.

So I asked Mr Cridland whether he would support a Constitutional Convention so that the CBI, along with everyone else, could have their say in shaping a coherent solution to a range of issues from the governance of the North and business support to the future shape of local government and the Local Enterprise Partnerships; he refused to commit himself. This was because we are in a General Election campaign and it is Labour Party policy to have a Convention. However in other answers he made it clear he favoured the sort of piecemeal approach to devolution which is likely to lead to the continuation of the confused picture of Combined Authorities, two tier councils, elected mayors and centralised government support schemes that we have now.

Despite this muddled thinking Cridland did make an important speech outlining how business sees devolution. Its central purpose had to be getting the regions to perform better. The CBI chief reckoned they could contribute £56bn towards the deficit of £90bn.

For the UK as a whole he regarded it as essential that we retain common business taxation and financial rules as well as a common energy and labour market.

For English regions he had three criteria for growth friendly devolution. They were evidence that it would boost growth, better local leadership and the minimisation of bureaucracy and complexity.

The CBI is dead against tax varying powers in City Regions. He reminded his Manchester audience of the years before uniform business rates when companies had to lobby each local council and rates varied wildly.

He however did support local tax retention schemes like Manchester’s buy back arrangements.

He praised the devolution deal that Greater Manchester had negotiated but posed the vital question about what happens to the rest of the North? Well Mr Cridland that’s the sort of issue that could be addressed in a comprehensive Constitutional Convention which the CBI needs to support.

CONSTITUENCY FOCUS: ROSSENDALE AND DARWEN.

Could we see the Straw dynasty survive in the new parliament? Jack Straw is standing down in Blackburn and there had been speculation that his son, Will, would succeed him.

But, unlike America where you can be President providing you are called Clinton or Bush, here we don’t care for dynastic politics. So Will is trying his hand in the much more marginal nearby seat of Rossendale and Darwen. Part of the constituency has Blackburn as its local council but it includes the south Lancashire communities of Rawtenstall and Bacup as well.

It has swung between Labour and the Tories over the years. Currently Jake Berry holds the seat with a majority of under five thousand having ousted Labour’s Janet Anderson in 201

PUTTING THE BOOTS INTO BUSINESS

 

 

MILIBAND AND BUSINESS

 

Ed Miliband is staking everything on being the people’s champion against vested interests. He may be personally awkward and unable to eat a bacon sandwich but he is convinced that voters will rally to Labour as the party for people who are fed up with the fat cats getting away with it. He may be right and if he can get enough of them to vote, he might win. On the other hand the Tories may succeed in nailing him as a leftie with a downer on enterprise.

 

It is essential that Miliband breaks out of the torpor that has surrounded his leadership. He can’t change his personal image, he can’t change the fact that the economy is on the mend but he has developed a habit of courageously taking on vested interests.

 

This began with Rupert Murdoch when revelations about phone tapping first emerged. Next were the energy companies threatened by a price freeze. Now Stefano Pessina of Boots and Tory donor Lord Fink are caught up in Ed’s latest campaign for people to pay their fair share of tax in the UK.

 

He is definitely on to something here. It is a common complaint that ordinary people on PAYE, well known to Inland Revenue and Customs, are readily fined for being a few days late with their tax forms whilst it seems these fat cats with their money stashed abroad are treated with awe and respect. The approach is justified on the grounds that being nice and polite might get some money back whereas going in hard with court cases will be costly and not productive. Well let’s try it and see whether the bad publicity leads to lots of these tax exiles paying up at the court door.

 

This matters. We are talking billions of pounds that could be being spent reducing the deficit and saving public services. If Ed Miliband can convince people it won’t be business as usual under him, he might be on to something at last.

 

KEY NORTHERN SEATS: SOUTHPORT.

 

Each week between now and the General Election I will be looking at some of the key contests in the Downtown in Business areas of the North West and Leeds.

 

We start with the battle between the Conservatives and Lib Dems in the genteel streets of Southport. In times past the constituency fluctuated regularly between the two parties. But since 1997 it has been in Lib Dem hands, initially in the shape of the flamboyant Ronnie Fern, but for the last three elections John Pugh has held the seat. Pugh, a school teacher for thirty years was a big contrast to Ronnie Fearn. He has earned a reputation as a good constituency MP recently highlighting the economic problems of resort towns in a Commons debate. Shamefully overlooked for ministerial office in the Coalition, he has distanced himself from some of the government’s policies.

 

His Tory opponent is supermarket executive and Preston councillor, Damien Moore. He has to overcome a six thousand Lib Dem majority, so the party will have to be in real meltdown for this seat to change hands.

 

Next week: Rossendale and Darwen.

 

 

 

FED UP WITH THE ELECTION ALREADY?

 

 

FOUR MONTHS OF THIS?

 

As people lie in ambulances waiting for treatment, the sound of squabbling politicians rings in their ears.

 

If it’s not the NHS, it’s the economy. We got four or five rebuttal and counter rebuttal documents from the Conservatives and Labour on Monday about each other’s spending plans.

 

The electorate is already mightily disillusioned with the Westminster game. Four months of this will not just have them turning off in droves, it will make them angry.

 

Political reporters have already been overusing the phrase “the election campaign got under way today”, when we know that there will be multiple launches around the spring party conferences and when Parliament is dissolved. Oh for the return of the short sharp campaign. There is a view that people generally form a view two years out from an election. It is difficult to achieve significant changes in opinion amid the sound and fury of the last few weeks before polling day. To inflict this early period of claim and counter claim on a weary electorate is a mistake.

THE YEAR AHEAD FOR BUSINESS.

 

For business, the approaching election means the thing it hates most, uncertainty. The possibility of a change of government might mean that investment plans will be put on hold. This is compounded by the prospect that forming a new government might take weeks and involve multiple parties. Discerning what that will all mean for taxation and business incentives is very difficult, hence the Prime Minister comes up with his plea for continuity under the Conservatives.

 

But away from politics there are a number of other business related questions for the year ahead. How much longer are the workers going to settle for 1% pay rises and zero hours contracts? With unemployment dropping and the economy improving, are we going to see more robust demands for pay rises? These may particularly come in the private sector where there is some evidence of skills gaps developing. Public sector workers may be less likely to take part in a wage push because remorseless cuts are set to continue whoever is in power.

 

AN UNCERTAIN WORLD.

 

Uncertainty at home and uncertainty abroad. The slump in the oil price in 2014 took everyone by surprise. Whilst it provides everyone with lower costs in the short term, what it is telling us about the health of the world economy is another matter.

 

The American economy is surging ahead but the Euro zone’s performance continues to be an embarrassment for those of us who want it to succeed.

The Russian economy is tanking because of the oil price and sanctions, but how will Vladimir Putin react? Will he bow to the pressure or stoke up the fear that Mother Russia is under attack from the West.

 

A few years ago China’s rapid expansion sent raw material prices soaring. Growth has slowed. What effect will that have on China’s policy of increasingly investing in western infrastructure? Questions are being asked for instance about progress with the development of Wirral and Liverpool Waters.

 

A NEW MAGNA CARTA.

 

As we mark the 800th anniversary of this shake up in English governance, it would be nice if we could take a fundamental look at how we are ruled from parish council to the House of Lords.

 

It doesn’t look as if that is going to happen. Instead we will have to concentrate on incremental change. In that respect the question for this year will be whether Leeds, Sheffield and even Liverpool will be getting the Greater Manchester devolution deal, with or without elected City Region mayors.