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“SAFE” LABOUR SEATS IN DANGER

A reliable source has told me that Labour seats with a majority of 8000, like Wirral South are becoming vulnerable as all the worst fears about Jeremy Corbyn come true. A worst-case scenario could see up to 15 Labour held constituencies fall to the Conservatives, hence the desperate change of tactics by Labour to emphasise that leaving the EU will be an option under Jeremy Corbyn.

The Labour leader was turned on the spit by Andrew Neil last night, but he could have had answers ready. Apologise for antisemitism. On the charge that many people not earning £80,000 would pay more, here is a serviceable answer. “Labour will be mostly asking people with the broadest shoulders to pay for our programme, but some people will be affected by our plans on the married allowance and pensions. However, they will benefit from many other aspects of our fairness programme.”

The antisemitism row shouldn’t let the Tories off the hook on Islamophobia. Concern has been raised for three years. A promised inquiry has never materialised until now when a probe into all prejudice will take place. That muddies the water nicely.

Against this background let’s look at the battlefield in the North West.

CUMBRIA.

The most interesting seat in Cumbria is Barrow. The guy who was elected with a tiny Labour majority in 2017, John Woodcock, now poses in front of a poster urging people to back the Tories. His wish is likely to come true in a town bound up with our nuclear deterrent.

Workington is a Tory target and they would love to remove former Lib Dem leader Tim Farron in the South Lakes.

LANCASHIRE.

Labour could be vulnerable in four Lancashire seats with frontbencher Cat Smith in danger in Lancaster and Fleetwood which she took from the Tories in 2015. Gordon Marsden’s long tenure in Blackpool South looks likely to come to an end with the startling prospect that Burnley and Hyndburn could be the scenes of Leaver wrath. Burnley hasn’t had a Conservative MP since 1910.

MERSEYSIDE.

The big question on Wirral is whether we are going to see the end of Frank Field’s 40 years representing Birkenhead. He had a 25,000-majority last time. He is now standing as an independent against the Momentum backed Labour candidate Mick Whitley. Independents rarely prosper but that is a hell of a buffer for a man who’s fought the hard left all his life.

I am told Labour are really worried about Alison McGovern in Wirral South. This is partly because she is a high-profile member of the centrist Progress Group and also because Momentum activists are not putting in the groundwork. The Tories are still smarting from the 2015 defeat of Esther McVey in Wirral West and may get Laura Evans in this time.

Southport is seen as a three-way marginal, but it doesn’t look as if Labour are going to take it for the first time. With the Lib Dems fading, this could be another seat that swells Boris Johnson’s majority.

Liverpool is a city which clearly shows how the Labour Party is changing. Two moderate Jewish women MPs, Luciana Berger and Louise Ellman have gone claiming antisemitism and Stephen Twigg has retired. In their place will come the city’s first black woman MP Kim Johnson in Riverside and Momentum supported candidates Ian Byrne (West Derby) and Paula Barker (Wavertree).

CHESHIRE.

The Tory tide is likely to sweep through Cheshire taking the Labour marginal seats of Crewe, Weaver Vale and Warrington South.

The Lib Dems were hoping that Antoinette Sandbach, who switched from the Tories over Brexit, could take Eddisbury for them but the Conservatives have cannily chosen the well-respected former Crewe MP Edward Timpson to fight, and probably win for them.

GREATER MANCHESTER.

With the Lib Dems performing disappointingly in this campaign one has to look hard for any potential success in the North West. Cheadle seems their best hope with local councillor Tom Morrison.

Former Labour MP Angela Smith has moved over to Altrincham and Sale West. Despite being a Remain area, expect senior Tory Sir Graham Brady to hang on.

Greater Manchester, normally a bastion for Labour, could be breeched. Although the city was for Remain surrounding areas were Leave and their anger could take out Labour in the Bury seats and Bolton North East. Heywood and Middleton was Brexit’s best chance, could the Tories now benefit from the fading of Farage.

…BUT REMAINERS AT EACH OTHERS THROATS.

Jeremy Corbyn is to stay neutral on Europe if Labour is able to negotiate a new Brexit deal with the EU and put it alongside remain in a People’s Vote.

At least this long term leaver won’t campaign against it.Corbyn has always regarded Europe as a capitalist club, but its not been one of his big issues. What he really cares about is in Labour’s mind boggling manifesto just issued. Most of the Shadow Cabinet will campaign for Remain if they get the chance.

It doesn’t look as if they will. Jo Swinson has had a bad week. The Lib Dem leader’s Revoke policy was heavily criticised in Friday’s TV debate and she has exacerbated the civil war amongst Remainers by attacking Corbyn’s decision to stay neutral.It looks as if the  failure of all the Remain parties to ruthlessly work together is going to hand victory to Leavers.

BADLY BEHAVED BORIS.

Boris Johnson was not quite as bombastic on Friday but he chose the wrong tactics in Tuesday’s head to head debate with Jeremy Corbyn. Getting your prime message across is one thing, but to ignore questions from the studio audience about the NHS and trust in politics, is rude. It also shows that this Prime Minister is not as fast on his feet as he was trumped up to be.

“Get Brexit Done” is as misleading as “Take Back Control”. At the referendum the latter slogan allowed people to believe we could be ‘stand-alone’ Britain again. The reality is we live in an interdependent world. The only choice at this election is whether we stay with our European friends or go cap in hand to the Americans and Chinese for a trade deal.

Johnson’s “Get Brexit Done” slogan is equally misleading. The first audience member asked if Johnson could guarantee the phrase meant we could put the issue behind us. Of course, that is not the case. If we leave on Jan 31^st, the next cliff edge will be looming the following December when the interim period expires. Then there will be years of trade talks with countries in Europe and around the world.

BREXIT CHOICE.

 The people have a clear choice, Brexit with the Tories, a referendum with Labour and the Lib Dems in a hung parliament. Harold Wilson was almost neutral in 1975 and implemented what the people voted for. Corbyn will do the same.

LIB DEMS FALLING BACK.

It is increasingly clear that we can forget a Lib Dem government’s pledge to revoke. They are sadly not getting a huge remain surge and must hope for a hung parliament. Their leader Joe Swinson has to do better than say Johnson and Corbyn are not fit for office. In a hung parliament, somebody must go into Number 10. The Lib Dems made a grave mistake entering the 2010 coalition with the Tories. They are on the left and must make arrangements on that side of the aisle.

SNP MOVE THE GOALPOSTS.

Another interesting development this week has come from the SNP. Their justification for a second Scottish independence referendum was that Brexit had been a “material Change” following what was meant to be a once in a generation referendum in 2014.

Now when they are asked if Britain votes to stay in the EU, will the case for a second referendum go away, they say no.

INFRASTRUCTURE BOOM.

If the ridiculous spending promises of the parties are to be believed, then business in the north should prepare for a great spending spree.

The Prime Minister isn’t one for detail and in any case, he can reverse a policy on the whim (Corporation tax cut). However, he did include HS2 when he was making a series of infrastructure promises in the Salford debate. We shall see.

TAING BACK CONTROL?

Dominic Raab, one of the contenders for the Tory leadership, has suggested one way of getting Brexit through would be to prorogue (suspend) parliament. So, it has come to this from those who told us leaving the EU would mean taking back control. We should have understood that what they meant was they would define the 2016 result as a mandate to tear up all our links with Europe and bypass parliament in doing this.

Actually, this is not a new approach. Remember Mrs May didn’t want to put the issue to parliament and had to be forced to by the Supreme Court.

It is quite likely that the Brexit Party will win tonight’s Peterborough by election. A significant number of industrial workers are deserting Labour to rally behind Nigel Farage. What are his jobs and industrial strategy? I fear people are being blinded by an irrational hatred of the EU which will lead to widespread joblessness. My evidence? Bridgend, Scunthorpe, Swindon and there will be more to come. There are multiple causes for the problems facing the steel and car industry but the fear of tariffs after a No Deal Brexit is a massive contributory factor.

 

 

D DAY REFLECTIONS.

The testimony of the surviving soldiers this week has been deeply moving. Our debt to them and the fallen can never be repaid. The coverage by the BBC reminds us what a great broadcaster it is and worth every penny of the licence fee.

Well done to the Queen for reminding Donald Trump that the institutions created after World War Two to prevent further bloody catastrophes need to be respected. NATO and the UN are two but so, in my opinion, is the European Union

We also need to remember the contribution of the Red Army. Although the Soviet Union did not represent the democratic values that were fought for in Normandy, they made the major contribution in grinding down the German army in the East and I think that should have been mentioned far more this week.

THE TORY GRAND NATIONAL.

I will end this week with brief comments on the 11 contenders for Prime Minister.By the way those candidates promising to renegotiate Mrs May’s deal overlook the fact that there will be no new Prime Minister until the end of July and the new European leadership won’t be in position until November. Added to which the EU says the withdrawal agreement will not be reopened.

They are not going to win but I like the reasoned approach of Rory Stewart and the pro EU stance of Sam Gyimah. Mark Harper has no chance, nor do I think Tatton MP Esther Mcvey will last very long in the contest. I have known Esther for many years and her Liverpool background would have made a refreshing change for a Tory leader. However, her No Deal stance and her support for Birmingham parents opposing relationship education rule her out for me.

Matt Hancock is possibly one for the future and I can’t forgive Sajid Javid for his indolence when Communities Secretary.

Andrea Leadsom’s standing has grown since her cack handed bid for the leadership last time, but along with Dominic Raab, their stance on the EU is not for me.

Jeremy Hunt comes over as very bland but might come through as many people’s second choice.

I think the final two will be Boris Johnson and Michael Gove. I have frequently given my views on Johnson before. He was an opportunist on Brexit, a disgrace as Foreign Secretary and is lazy with the detail. Gove has the ability to take the fight to Jeremy Corbyn and is a bit more sensible in relation to extending EU negotiations.

Not a great selection for those of us who want to stop Brexit, but there we are.

Follow me @JimHancockUK