Tag: Greater Manchester

TORIES ON THE CENTRE GROUND

 

MAY TRIUMPHANT.

They were selling T shirts with the slogan “the lady’s not for turning” in Birmingham this week. For the first time in a quarter of a century the Conservative conference was able to acclaim a determined woman leader. Margaret Thatcher made her defiant declaration in the middle of her monetarist revolution that laid waste to the North’s industrial base in the early 1980s. She was determined to reduce the role of the state, there was no such thing as society.

This week in Birmingham Theresa May reversed that thinking by signalling that her government saw a very definite role for the state. Along with an attack on the greed and unaccountability of some business practices, this was a speech of great significance. The Tories are occupying the middle ground vacated by vacillating moderate Labour MPs, a currently weak Liberal Democrat Party and UKIP who have given new meaning to snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

Her keynote speech success on Wednesday followed a deft piece of political management three days before. When I arrived in Birmingham there was an uneasy atmosphere with Brexiteer Ultras poised to pounce on any backsliding over Brexit. Mrs May’s promise to trigger the EU withdrawal process by next March and her announcement of the Great Repeal Bill to scrap the 1972 European Communities Act ensured that the rest of the conference ran smoothly.

NORTHERN POWERHOUSE: IT’S UP TO US.

I received many assurances in Birmingham that the Northern Powerhouse was still a concept the new government embraced despite the total absence from the conference of its architect George Osborne and the resignation of Lord O’Neill of Gatley.

However one was struck by ministers vigorous support for the Midlands Engine and the constant evocation of the memory of Joseph Chamberlain, the nineteenth century statesman who was central to Birmingham great municipal development. One has a sense that Birmingham rather than Manchester will be the main focus of attention for the time being. This is because the Tories believe their candidate for elected mayor of the West Midlands, the former John Lewis boss Andy Street, has a real chance of victory. His Labour opponent Sion Simon meanwhile has had to deny he favours a merger of West Midlands football teams in order to win the Premiership.

ANSTEE: MAN OF EXPERIENCE.

The Tories chances of winning the position of elected mayor in Greater Manchester look far more difficult. This didn’t deter Sean Anstee, the leader of Trafford Council for throwing his hat in the ring when nominations opened this week. Cllr Anstee took the opportunity of addressing conference fringe events in Birmingham to stress that he has the advantage over Labour’s hot favourite, Andy Burnham, in local government experience. Anstee’s Conservative support for the Combined Authority deal was also crucial. xx

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WHEN CORBYN WINS…….

 

 

THE UNIONS MUST DECIDE.

The selection of Steve Rotheram and Andy Burnham to be Labour’s candidates for mayor in the city regions of Liverpool and Manchester mean it is almost certain Jeremy Corbyn will be confirmed as leader of the Labour Party in September.

He will gain control of the party’s ruling National Executive (NEC) shortly afterwards following victories by the Momentum slate in this week’s NEC elections. The organisation was set up to buttress Corbyn support.

Following Corbyn’s victory, de-selection will face most of the Labour MPs who opposed him as the party becomes truly socialist as most of its huge membership desires.

Some of Corbyn’s opponents will seek to rejoin the Shadow team but we may see a majority seeking the Speaker’s recognition as the Official Opposition. This may be a prelude to the setting up of a new social democratic party. It would be a more credible organisation than the “Gang of Four” SDP that was created by Roy Jenkins, Shirley Williams, David Owen and Bill Rodgers in 1981. However its success will crucially depend on what the unions do with their money. There needs to be a big debate at next month’s Trades Union Congress about what they do. The unions founded Labour to win elections in order to put in place laws to help their members. When do they expect that to happen under Jeremy Corbyn? A huge membership is fine. Engaged, enthusiastic activists are to be admired but a programme of high taxes, weak immigration policy and unilateral nuclear disarmament will be rejected by Middle England in 2020 as it was in 1983.

ROTHERAM AND BURNHAM.

It is unlikely that Liverpool’s elected mayor, Joe Anderson will remain “heartbroken” for long following his failure to be selected to be candidate for Labour in next year’s election for Liverpool City Region Mayor. He has already indicated he intends to deliver on his second term programme. He was only re-elected in May to serve till 2020.

One had heard of plans for Liverpool Council to revert to a leader/Cabinet model next year. Deputy Mayor Ann O’Byrne had even been mentioned as the person to lead the city if Joe became City Region Mayor.

The Lib Dems are launching a petition to scrap the Liverpool elected mayor post. Good luck with that. Joe will be staying,no doubt pledging to work in comradely fashion with Steve Rotheram but perhaps secretly warning that his former North Liverpool friend will lead the city region into a Militant style confrontation with the government.

Rotheram has a job of reassurance on his hands. He stayed as Corbyn’s parliamentary aide, and hosted Corbyn’s recent rally in the city. He is seen as Corbyn’s man and will need to satisfy the business community that he will not wreck the work done by Anderson in bringing jobs to the city.

Rotheram has revealed a strong bond with Andy Burnham who won the Labour mayoral nomination in Greater Manchester. They are planning a North West Powerhouse campaign to stop the backsliding on the devolution project that seems to be happening under the new Tory government.

Burnham’s Scouse connections did him no harm with Mancs in the end. Remaining in the Shadow Cabinet went down well with the Corbyn dominated membership. His analysis that devolution has been too Manchester centric and the politics top down and closed off,is right. But just as Rotheram has Anderson to deal with in Liverpool, Sir Richard Leese is still leader of Manchester Council, having made some disparaging remarks about the post that Burnham looks likely to be elected to.

We are all presuming that Rotheram and Burnham are going to defeat their opponents next year in these Labour dominated urban regions. I just wonder in these turbulent times if that is entirely wise.

 

 

 

 

LABOUR’S NORTHERN MAYORAL CHOICES

 

DOG’S BREAKFAST.

One senses that whoever wins the Labour leadership contest, they will never become Prime Minister and hold real power. So we must look elsewhere for Labour politicians who will affect our lives in the coming years.

The position of elected mayor for the city regions of Liverpool and Greater Manchester seem a reasonably safe bet. I say that with the important caveat that all Labour strongholds in the North may soon come under a challenge from UKIP. But presuming the new leader of UKIP hasn’t had time to get his/her ducks in a row, the two Labour politicians currently being chosen in party ballots in Greater Manchester and the Liverpool City Region will hold significant power.

Only those two areas will have elected mayors next May. Internal squabbling and a government distracted by Brexit has ensured that there will be no great roll out of elected mayors across the North come May.

Leeds may yet get its act together but it has been a painful process with competing demands for a Greater Yorkshire mayor competing with Leeds more city focussed approach. Then there was a fight over transport powers with North Yorkshire. It appears likely that Leeds will do a deal with Craven, Harrogate and Selby but politics is in the background. Some Tory MPs are pressing the new Communities Secretary Sajid Javid for more Tory districts to be included to prevent an inevitable Labour mayor being elected.

Warrington had the same concern in reverse, that an elected mayor including Cheshire could jeopardise Labour’s control of the town. In Lancashire Wyre district continues to hold out against a countywide elected mayor whilst Chorley wants to become a unitary authority.

It is all a bit of a mess. It is what you get when a government decides on the superficially democratic idea of allowing devolution to grow from the bottom up. It is a recipe for petty rivalry resulting in a chaotic pattern that voters don’t understand. We need regional government with only unitary authorities underneath, but we are where we are, so let’s look at who might win the Labour nominations.

TOPPLING BIG JOE?

Joe Anderson has been Labour’s elected mayor for the city of Liverpool for four years. The independent academic Michael Parkinson recently published a glowing report on his success. He listed Joe’s achievements including persuading a Tory government to devolve powers, the International Festival of Business, and the Exhibition Hall; all done against a background of massive public spending cuts. He had also raised the profile of the city, the central aim of this elected mayor project.

Anderson now wants to be mayor of the City Region and needs to deal with the perception that it would always be Liverpool first and Wirral, St Helens and Sefton second.

That is why Steve Rotheram, MP for Walton, is standing on a platform of “No borough left behind.” He says he will give more priority to the needs of the whole city region. He has remained as parliamentary aide to Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn which might go down well with the current Labour membership.

Luciana Berger, MP for Wavertree, is seen as the outsider which is a shame because these positions were meant to see different faces coming to the fore. Her call for fresh leadership following Brexit seems to be falling on deaf ears.

TONY THE MAN TO BEAT.

In Greater Manchester Tony Lloyd is relying on big union support and the fact that he is currently doing the job of interim mayor to see him to the Labour nomination. Dynamic wouldn’t be the first word to come to mind in describing Lloyd’s political style but he has often been underestimated in his climb from Trafford councillor, to MP, to Minister, to chair of the Parliamentary Labour Party before seeing off Lord Smith of Wigan for his current job.

Ivan Lewis (MP Bury South) is bringing dynamism to the race with his challenge that so far the benefits of devolution have not gone far beyond Manchester.

Meanwhile Shadow Home Secretary Andy Burnham says his Cabinet experience will bring heft to the job. He wants more emphasis on council houses instead of plush flats and is challenging the Prime Minister to clarify her position on devolution. The Everton supporting Burnham is battling a perception that he is not Manc enough for the job.

The results of the Labour candidate ballots will be known in early August.

 

BIG JOE AND TOP MAN TONY FACE CHALLENGES.

 

BRINGING DOWN JOE.

The actual elections for the Mayors of the Liverpool City Region, Greater Manchester and possibly Leeds, won’t be held until next year. However in effect the people who are likely to occupy these posts will be settled this summer. Labour has an iron grip on our big northern cities and unless a spectacular independent candidate comes forward, whoever Labour members choose, will win.

The party’s choices will be made very soon. Nominations close on June 10th and the results will be announced on August 4th. Whoever thought it was a good idea to run these selections when the European Union Referendum was on needs their head examining. Labour Party members should be concentrating on getting out the Remain vote amongst its supporters. Without them the referendum could be lost. I guess it reflects leader Jeremy Corbyn’s lack of enthusiasm for the Remain campaign.

However the battle for the Labour nomination has been truly joined. The Shadow Home Secretary Andy Burnham declared this week for the Greater Manchester job. Meanwhile in the Liverpool City Region, 2 MPs Steve Rotheram and Luciana Berger are set to throw down the gauntlet to Big Joe Anderson. There are also suggestions that Barry Grunwald, the leader of St Helens, might try and rally Labour members who want a candidate from outside Liverpool.

Joe Anderson has just started his second term as elected mayor of the city of Liverpool. He got a glowing report on his first period in office from the boss of the Heseltine Institute, Professor Michael Parkinson. However not everyone shares the academic’s views. Critics believe Joe brings a “my way or the highway” approach to the office. They worry about his ability to reach out to the people of Wirral, Southport and St Helens. They remember his petulance when Phil Davies, the leader of Wirral, was originally chosen as chair of the Liverpool City Region instead of him.

There has been a sense of inevitability about Anderson gliding from one mayoralty to the other and this is what Rotheram, Berger or Grunwald will have to combat.

Grunwald is quite a character, inheriting the feisty tradition of his predecessor Marie Rimmer. If he stands he will need to work hard to get name recognition across the city region, but he may be able to play on the fear that a Liverpool politician won’t represent the interests of the other councils.

Joe Anderson is now likely to have to battle with two MPs in the city. Steve Rotheram is the amiable MP for Walton and was a popular traditional mayor of the city some years ago. He has family and work connections with Knowsley, St Helens and Halton and is close to Andy Burnham. They would form a powerful alliance for a North West version of the Northern Powerhouse. Efforts may be made to depict him as a Corbynista. He is the leader’s Parliamentary Private Secretary but Rotheram nominated Burnham for leader and will want to portray himself as a good Labour man first and foremost.

Merseyside politics is very male and a female elected mayor would send out the sort of positive messages that Sadiq Khan’s election in London has done. Wirral South’s Alison McGovern was thinking of standing but is heavily identified with the Blairite Progress movement and is unlikely to run. So what about Luciana Berger? She is bright and personable but will have to deal with the, no doubt unfair, feeling that she is a posh outsider from London.

BURNISHING BURNHAM.

Sir Richard Leese recently expressed his disappointment at Tony Lloyd’s tenure as interim mayor of Greater Manchester. It is a blow for Lloyd as he seeks the post permanently. Leese is now believed to be backing Andy Burnham.

The Shadow Home Secretary’s decision to enter the contest is significant. He has Big Beast status in this municipal contest but it has caused dismay among some Labour supporters for what it says about Labour’s chances of winning the 2020 General Election. Burnham has decided that the only way he can be effective is to run Greater Manchester with no chance of becoming Home Secretary. He represents Leigh and so is not from the Manchester City elite. But will he be any match for the Bernstein/Leese partnership, the powerful Chief Executive/ Leader pairing that has dominated for 20 years?

The other candidate, Ivan Lewis, the Bury South MP, has made it clear that he thinks the devolution agenda has been too Manchester focused and concentrated on economic priorities at the expense of social ones.

It all means a high summer of high drama for Labour Party members in our big conurbations.