Tag: Jeremy Corbyn

FINAL SURGE TO MAY ?

 

THE LAST LAP.

The Prime Minister didn’t expect it to turn out this way when she called her snap election in April. The campaign was meant to deliver her a majority of 100+ so that she could go and sock it to those arrogant Europeans.

In fact, there has been very little discussion about what sort of deal we might get from the EU negotiations. We can’t get past the slogans of hard and soft Brexit. That’s deliberate as Mrs May wants to go off for two years negotiating with little challenge from a parliament with a thumping Tory majority. Her speech in the North East on Thursday, specifically on Brexit, clarified little.

Unfortunately for her other issues have intruded into the campaign. Tragically terrorism and security came to the fore after the Manchester outrage, but also the future funding of social care. She came a cropper on this issue and there seems to be a lot of support for a general sharing of the cost of care above £72,000.

Then there’s Jeremy Corbyn who has campaigned well with policies that are individually popular. Also, bullying questions from Jeremy Paxman and daily vilification in the Tory press have provoked a closing of the polls.

All that said I think wider truths will bring a Conservative majority of around 50 next Thursday. Labour cannot be serious in asking the British people to elect as Prime Minister a man with an ambiguous attitude to IRA terrorism. Also, nobody believes Jeremy Corbyn would ever launch our nuclear weapons. He has very honourable feelings about the issue, but the whole concept of deterrence would be undermined with Corbyn in No 10. Personally disorganised, he does not have a credible team of Shadow Ministers around him to form a government.

Perhaps reluctantly the British people will elect Theresa May hoping that she can display the strong and stable qualities that she has not projected during this campaign

THE NORTHERN BATTLEFIELD.

So, which seats should we be watching out for in Downtown areas of the North? The gloomiest of Labour insiders think any seat with less than a 10,000 majority is potentially vulnerable to the Tories. Those would include Huddersfield (welcome back to the Premier League by the way), Leeds North East, Lancashire West and Ellesmere Port and Neston. In relation to the latter I have picked up strange rumours that Justin Madders with a six thousand majority could be in more trouble than Chris Matheson in neighbouring Chester on ninety-three.

If we come on to constituencies with a Labour majority of less than 5000 they include the popular Deputy Speaker of the Commons, Lyndsay Hoyle, in Chorley, Bolton North East which is being heavily targeted, Wakefield and Wirral South where Alison McGovern is putting up a determined fight.

Right in the front line is Chester which I have already mentioned. The city is on the up, symbolised by the recent opening of the brilliant Storyhouse theatre complex. The seat went against the trend of the Cameron victory in 2015. Could it possibly stay Labour this time? Nearby another constituency that went against the trend was Wirral West. The 417 Labour majority should be overwhelmed by the able and popular Tory candidate, Tony Caldeira.

Other seats held on slim majorities by Labour include Lancaster and Fleetwood. The incumbent, Cat Smith, is a big Corbyn supporter which certainly can’t be said of John Woodcock in Barrow. His leader’s views on nuclear weapons are toxic in the submarine building town which went Tory in 1983 when Michael Foot was in charge of Labour.

I had hoped the Lib Dems would do well with their promise of a second EU referendum. It appears they have been squeezed as people polarise between Labour and the Conservatives. This means the Lib Dems are unlikely to reclaim Burnley or Cheadle. Indeed, they look likely to lose Southport where they only have a 3% majority over the Conservatives and have been damaged by the decision of the long serving MP John Pugh to retire.

FINAL THOUGHT.

Might this happen on Thursday night?

BONG

It’s ten o’clock and the BBC predicts the Conservatives have won the General Election with a comfortable majority.

BONG.

Jeremy Corbyn vows to fight on for socialism.

BONG

Tony Blair and Nick Clegg announce the launch of a new centre party for Britain.

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MAGNIFICENT MANCHESTER

 

TONY SPEAKS FOR THE CITY.

Not for the first time a Tony speaks for Manchester. Ten years ago, it was the late Tony Wilson who could express the character of this kind, gritty city. On Tuesday it was poet Tony Walsh. His composition “This Is The Place” read out to a huge crowd in sunny Albert Square was just what was needed to try and pierce the blackness and fear caused by the abominable attack on young people at the Manchester Arena.

Terrible events bring out the best in the vast majority of us. If only, if only it wasn’t needed so often these days. But there it was for the world to see. The interviews with the young people who were at the Arena, and survived,were eloquent, thoughtful and sensitive. What a world we are handing over to them. We don’t deserve them. Then there were the Asian taxi drivers, waiving their fares to get people home and the takeaway shops throwing open their doors. That’s the answer to the so-called Islamic State’s attempt to divide us.

BACK TO THE ELECTION.

Terrorists hate democracy and therefore I agree, for once, with UKIP who were first to resume campaigning. It is a difficult matter to balance respect for the searing pain the bereaved and injured will be suffering and the need to demonstrate that we will not be prevented from our democratic business.

What effect will the terrorist attack have on the election? Casual and cynical observations that it will help the “law and order Tories” are offensive. Conservative candidates are overwhelmed with sadness in the same way as anyone else; and Mrs May has the burden of this tragedy being on her watch. There is a perception that people will swing to the right under terrorist provocation. That did not happen in France, although Marine Le Pen was a far less palatable candidate than Mrs May.

I’m sad to say that Labour could suffer from this terrible event, not because of a natural swing to the right in such circumstances, but because Jeremy Corbyn continues to be damaged by past ambiguous answers on his attitude to the IRA.

WOBBLY MAY.

Until Monday’s atrocity, Theresa May’s assertion that her strong and stable leadership was just what was wanted for those Brexit talks, was looking far less credible.

I don’t want antagonistic negotiations with 27 countries that should still be our partners in building an ever closer union. However, that ship seems to have sailed. If voters are looking for a Prime Minister who knows her mind, thinks things through and isn’t blown off course by the first whiff of trouble, why would you vote for May?

She called a General Election that she vowed not to do. She raised National Insurance contributions for self-employed workers and then back tracked. She then proposed a system whereby long term dementia sufferers could pay hundreds of thousands of pounds in home care fees before announcing a cap four days later. The EU negotiators must be rubbing their hands.

A final point, I gave some stick to Labour last week for uncosted manifesto promises. The Tory manifesto is also littered with them. The cost of cutting immigration, the £8bn for the NHS, and the cut off point for winter fuel allowances all have no price tags. Perhaps they are going to pay for it with rises in National Insurance and Income Tax!

 

 

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THIS SEVERED, NOT SCEPTERED,ISLE

 

MAY FIGHTING ON MULTIPLE FRONTS.

 

“Hung be the heavens with black, yield day to night. Comets importing change of times and states brandish your crystal tresses in the sky” Henry VI Part I.

It seems an appropriate quote for the week when most opposition MPs stood by whilst the government gained parliamentary authority for a hard Brexit from the EU. It was the week when Nicola Sturgeon followed the historic example of past Scottish kings who made trouble on the border when English minds were focused on the continent. It was the week when there was little progress in forming a Northern Ireland government but plenty of talk about uniting the North and South.

There is no doubt that we are in a period of great constitutional uncertainty, unleashed by last year’s EU referendum. That is not good for business in the North nor is the uncertainty caused by the about turn on National Insurance(NI) contributions. After the pasty tax debacle under George Osborne, will Chancellors never learn? A Budget is not a place to road test ideas, only to withdraw them. The near equalisation of NI was a fair proposal but it was also a breach of an election promise and against the Tory instinct to help the self-employed. It was always going to meet with massive opposition, particularly because Tory backbenchers feel they can throw their weight around because of the feeble opposition.

“NO PROBLEM WITH A REFERENDUM”.

Perhaps Nicola Sturgeon acted on Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s latest careless word stream in announcing her intention to try and trigger a second referendum on Scottish independence, although I doubt it.

It is a massive gamble by the normally able leader. Was she pushed into it by SNP zealots? More likely she sees Brexit uncertainty as the last hope for an independent Scotland. The economic case against it is growing as North Sea oil runs out and the Scottish deficit rises. Trading on the vote to Remain in Scotland and the huge uncertainty of the UK Brexit negotiations, Sturgeon wants the vote before the end of the talks.

She is likely to be disappointed. The Prime Minister is unlikely to follow the practice of the Spanish government who just refuse Catalonia an independence vote, but she will likely stall for time. It is most likely a second referendum will follow the UK’s exit from the EU if it is held at all. Much will depend on the level of justifiable anger among Scottish remainers.

The further problem for the SNP is that they tend to exaggerate the level of support they have for remaining in/re-joining the EU. The Commission has made it clear it will only deal with one state, the UK, during the talks. If Scotland were to become independent it might have to join the end of the applicant queue, join the Euro and face the opposition of Spain who don’t want to set a precedent for Catalonian independence.

That is one part of our unhappy state.

SINN FEIN’S SUPPORT POST BREXIT.

The fact that Sinn Fein have nearly got parity with Unionists in the Northern Ireland Assembly following the recent elections is another consequence of the Brexit vote. A united Ireland inside the EU is an increasingly attractive proposition for some waverers. That mood will only be strengthened if a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic is the result of the UK Brexit talks. Another part of our unhappy state.

OVER THE CLIFF.

Finally, we come to the UK where England plays the major part. Ministers make optimistic noises about how it is in everyone’s interest to allow economic reality to overcome politics in the talks. That wasn’t the case in the Referendum where people’s feelings about immigration and alienation overwhelmed the strong economic case for staying in.

Our European friends feel mightily offended. Expect an early and possibly decisive clash on the divorce bill.

 

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BROKEN PROMISE,HEZZA GONE, AND BREXIT IGNORED

 

SHOOT THE MESSENGER.

Budget Day began with the news that Michael Heseltine had been sacked as a government adviser because he had voted to give the British people a meaningful vote on exiting the EU.

What a sad end for a man who has served the North, and Merseyside in particular, well. Let’s hope he continues to come to events held by the Heseltine Institute which bares his name. Last November, in a brilliant analysis, he dared to speculate that public opinion might change its mind on leaving the EU. That view has now cost him his advisory roles. The government will be the losers, but we live in an age when people don’t want to hear from experts.

WHAT! NO BREXIT?

While Hezza was sacked for his views on Brexit, the issue hardly got a mention from Spreadsheet Phil (The Chancellor, Philip Hammond) in the last Budget to be announced in the Spring. It was quite extraordinary that the issue that will have most impact on the British economy didn’t get a mention in the key economic statement. Nick Robinson on the Today programme likened it to a pilot asking passengers if they would like ice in their G and T as the plane was about to hit the mountain!

Why was this? Hammond was a Remainer in the EU referendum and is rightly worried about what faces the British economy in the medium term. Indeed, buried in the government documents that emerge after the Chancellor has sat down is a forecast that Brexit will damage our trade for ten years. Hammond didn’t want to antagonise his hard Brexit MPs by restating his real views. That’s because he had a nasty shock for them; he was going to break a key manifesto promise.

NATIONAL INSURANCE.

We know now that the promise not to increase Income Tax, VAT or National Insurance was made to fill a “news grid” on a slow day for announcements in the run up to the 2015 General Election.

It dramatically limits any Tory Chancellor’s room for manoeuvre in these fast-changing economic times. We will never know if George Osborne would have stuck to it but the increase of 2% in NI contributions for self-employed people has set off a firestorm on the Tory backbenches.

I actually agree with the measure to balance up the position of employed and self-employed workers but the refusal of the Chancellor to acknowledge that he has broken a manifesto pledge is pathetic.

THE BUDGET AND SMALL BUSINESS IN NORTH.

The year’s delay in quarterly tax reporting will be welcomed by small businesses wrestling with the costly change and, contrary to southern media based reporting, many northern businesses will benefit from the review. It was a shame Mr Hammond wasted £435m on measures to cushion the impact on businesses who’ve benefitted from the booming southern economy.

CONCLUSION.

Despite better than expected short term public finance figures, two elephants remain in the Chancellor’s room. They are Brexit and the National Debt. The fact that we are paying £50bn a year in interest is sobering. That is an HS2 every year.

The row over the NI increase will further dampen any talk of a snap election however tempting that might be. The Chancellor’s mauling of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn during his speech was both surprising and almost cruel.

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JUST JIM 241

 

BROKEN PROMISE AND BREXIT IGNORED.

SHOOT THE MESSANGER.

Budget Day began with the news that Michael Heseltine had been sacked as a government adviser because he had voted to give the British people a meaningful vote on exiting the EU.

What a sad end for a man who has served the North, and Merseyside in particular, well. Let’s hope he continues to come to events held by the Heseltine Institute which bares his name. Last November, in a brilliant analysis, he dared to speculate that public opinion might change its mind on leaving the EU. That view has now cost him his advisory roles. The government will be the losers, but we live in an age when people don’t want to hear from experts.

WHAT! NO BREXIT?

While Hezza was sacked for his views on Brexit, the issue hardly got a mention from Spreadsheet Phil (The Chancellor, Philip Hammond) in the last Budget to be announced in the Spring. It was quite extraordinary that the issue that will have most impact on the British economy didn’t get a mention in the key economic statement. Nick Robinson on the Today programme likened it to a pilot asking passengers if they would like ice in their G and T as the plane was about to hit the mountain!

Why was this? Hammond was a Remainer in the EU referendum and is rightly worried about what faces the British economy in the medium term. Indeed, buried in the government documents that emerge after the Chancellor has sat down is a forecast that Brexit will damage our trade for ten years. Hammond didn’t want to antagonise his hard Brexit MPs by restating his real views. That’s because he had a nasty shock for them; he was going to break a key manifesto promise.

NATIONAL INSURANCE.

We know now that the promise not to increase Income Tax, VAT or National Insurance was made to fill a “news grid” on a slow day for announcements in the run up to the 2015 General Election.

It dramatically limits any Tory Chancellor’s room for manoeuvre in these fast-changing economic times. We will never know if George Osborne would have stuck to it but the increase of 2% in NI contributions for self-employed people has set off a firestorm on the Tory backbenches.

I actually agree with the measure to balance up the position of employed and self-employed workers but the refusal of the Chancellor to acknowledge that he has broken a manifesto pledge is pathetic.

THE BUDGET AND SMALL BUSINESS IN NORTH.

The year’s delay in quarterly tax reporting will be welcomed by small businesses wrestling with the costly change and, contrary to southern media based reporting, many northern businesses will benefit from the review. It was a shame Mr Hammond wasted £435m on measures to cushion the impact on businesses who’ve benefitted from the booming southern economy.

CONCLUSION.

Despite better than expected short term public finance figures, two elephants remain in the Chancellor’s room. They are Brexit and the National Debt. The fact that we are paying £50bn a year in interest is sobering. That is an HS2 every year.

The row over the NI increase will further dampen any talk of a snap election however tempting that might be. The Chancellor’s mauling of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn during his speech was both surprising and almost cruel.

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