Tag: Jeremy Corbyn

WHITTINGDALE: PERCEPTION IS ALL.

THE SWORD OF DAMOCLES.

When John Whittingdale was offered the Cabinet post which involved press regulation, why did he not disclose to the Prime Minister that some papers knew of his previous relationship with a woman who had tried to sell her story to said papers?

The government, and Whittingdale in particular has gone soft on press regulation. The Secretary of State is “not convinced” of the case to incentivize papers to sign up to a regulation panel under Royal Charter by exposing them to high costs in civil libel cases if they do not. Nor is there any sign of the second part of the Leveson Inquiry into the original failed police investigation into phone hacking at the News of the World.

The code of conduct for Ministers speaks of the need, not only for there to be no conflict of interest, but no “perceived” conflict of interest. The perception is certainly clear and the actual conflict possibly too. The press clearly had this embarrassing piece of information on Whittingdale and we can “perceive” that he may consider it wise to treat the press gently for fear of exposure.

His fear could be justified by the current press fury and frustration that they are injuncted from reporting on the affairs of a well known entertainer. That sits curiously with their decision that there was no public interest in publishing the story of Whittingdale and the dominatrix. Certainly Max Mosley, the former motor racing chief, thinks it’s odd bearing in mind how he was done over in a similar situation.

Whittingdale may have resigned by the time you read this, otherwise he must be moved in the post referendum reshuffle.

DEFENDING DAD.

David Cameron made a horlicks over his tax affairs but the explanation that that was because he was trying to defend his late father, I found refreshingly frank.

The government need to take account of the growing public clamour for the fat cats not to be allowed to get away with it. If that means trimming the freedom of our overseas territories, hiring more tax officials and voting for tougher European Union action, then so be it.

Labour will be wise to concentrate on those measures and not imply that if Jeremy Corbyn became Prime Minister, they would threaten normal legal tax planning.

PEOPLE’S HISTORY MUSEUM.

The Labour leader was in his element at a House of Commons event I attended this week. It was to celebrate the People’s History Museum (PHM) in Manchester and their fund-raising, Radical Heroes, campaign. On the banks of the Irwell in the centre of town, it is a great resource for telling the story of the struggle of people in the North for economic and political equality.

It is not just a Labour Party institution. Liberal Democrat MPs like John Pugh from Southport was at the event and in the nineteenth century Bury’s Robert Peel was the radical who abolished the Corn Laws and created the modern Conservative Party.

But most of the people there were Labour including former leader Neil Kinnock, who told me he thinks the party is in a worse position now than when he took over in 1983. He had previously told the New Statesman that he found it “difficult to see” Corbyn being elected.

We won’t have to wait long now for the new leader’s first nationwide test in May’s elections.

ANGER EVERWHERE.

DON’T GET FOOLED AGAIN.

Everybody thinks the E.U. referendum is going to be a close run thing. Why do they think that? Because the polls tell them so. These are the same polling organisations who got the General Election result wrong and arguably distorted the outcome as a consequence.

Apparently on line and phone polling is giving wildly different outcomes and it could be even more difficult to get accurate polling results on this E.U. Referendum than when you are asking people for their political party preference.

So on June 24^th if the British people vote to withdraw by a decisive margin or (as I hope) decide to remain with a convincing majority, prepare for another round of hand ringing by pollsters as we find out that the British people had a clear view on their future destiny after all.

By the way, although I am convinced pro European I do think it is provocative for the government to send out anti Exit leaflets ahead of the official referendum campaign. It will just help supporters of Leave who are already preparing to cry foul if we vote to Remain.

A STEELY EYE ON THE CHINESE.

I understand the importance of our trade relations with a nation that could overtake the United States and become the biggest economic power in the world. But it has never been without risks. The main ethical one is dealing with a country with a poor civil rights record but there are others including the issues that are arising over the future of the British steel industry.

With China now involved in financing major infrastructure projects in this country, it is not easy to aggressively oppose their steel dumping. A measure of the growing arrogance of the Chinese government was their decision to impose a 46% tariff on grain orientated electrical steel made in Wales at the very moment when the government was facing the hugely embarrassing possibility of seeing the Port Talbot plant close.

You can tell the members of the Central Committee of the Communist Party are not answerable to voters.

We need to save domestic steel making, and put a bit of distance from the Chinese. I also hope we will hear more at next week’s Downtown lunch in Liverpool about the progress of Chinese investment in Liverpool and Wirral following the latest MIPIM extravaganza. It is a long time since the city was at the Shanghai Expo and I don’t see many shovels in the ground.

UNREST IF TRUMP NOT CHOSEN?

Donald Trump continues his divisive campaign to win the Republican nomination for President of the United States. His Wisconsin set back this week means it is unlikely he will arrive at the Convention with a majority. But if the Republican establishment deny him the nomination by back room deals, there could be real trouble. I watched a Channel Four documentary recently which illustrated the ugly mood amongst his blue collar white working class supporters.

There has already been violence at Trump rallies. It could get worse.

BERNIE, JEREMY AND THE PANAMA PAPERS.

I have been pro Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination but I was mightily impressed with her rival Bernie Sanders speech after winning in Wisconsin. His attack on the greed and corruption exposed by the Panama Papers leak shows the degree of anger by us P.A.Y.E. People at people who are salting away their wealth in tax havens.

Sanders has a lot in common with another insurgent politician, Jeremy Corbyn. Labour should watch the American socialist carefully.

NOT SO GRAND NATIONAL!

Channel Four does not get the same audience for the big race that the BBC got. So to try and increase viewers they are putting it on at 5-15 on Saturday. It just doesn’t feel right to me. Most people are off on a Saturday, not getting home from work. You should be able to have a bit of lunch and enjoy the race in the middle of the afternoon.

MIDTERM UNPOPULARITY COMES EARLY

BREXIT DANGER.

With death on the streets around the European Union Headquarters building and the Budget shambles at home, it has been a bad week for those of us wanting a remain vote in June’s EU referendum.

The disgusting terrorist atrocities suggest Europe is falling apart under a wave of violence. The events in Brussels come hard upon the migrant crisis where the EU did not cover itself in glory.

People should realise that the economic arguments for staying in the biggest market in the world and the perils of the unknown offered by the Brexiteers, should overwhelm concerns about terrorism and migrants. But after the Chancellor’s bungled budget, will they?

Labour actually edged ahead in one opinion poll and that was even before Iain Duncan Smith resigned. It is a sign that the traditional mid term unpopularity suffered by all governments has come early. People may look at the most senior advocates of remaining in the EU, the Prime Minister and Chancellor, and decide to give them a kicking for the way they are running the UK, rather than think about the dangers of leaving.

HE TURNED UP THE VOLUME AGAIN.

Iain Duncan Smith has been a disruptive force in Tory politics for two decades. In the nineties he helped to force the sitting Prime Minister, John Major, the resign and stand again for his own job over Europe. He then became Tory leader in 2003 but showed no signs of avoiding a third successive defeat and was replaced a couple of years later. In government since 2010 he has been on a single-minded crusade to reform the benefits system, so single minded that he clearly has been a nightmare to deal with. Faced with the Chancellor constantly demanding cuts, it is surprising the resignation didn’t come earlier.

Neither Osborne or Duncan Smith have emerged from the events of the last week with much credit. Universal credit is a good idea but it should have been rolled out to over 5 million people by now. The current figure is 200,000. That is failure.

The other failure is George Osborne’s failure to hit any of the targets that he floats at election time to woo the voters. The cap on welfare, reducing the National Debt and the ever receding promise to get the books in surplus by 2020. Even in the Budget it was going to be achieved with some sleight of hand involving Corporation Tax receipts. Now his only hope is a booming economy will fill in the four billion pound black hole.

The retreat on things like welfare cuts and the tampon tax can apparently be accommodated according to the Chancellor which begs the question why disabled people were put through the ringer in the first place.

The one nation Tory Party theme is holed below the water line. The true face of George Osborne was shown in that nasty jibe about abolishing the Lib Dems. Pride always comes before a fall and whilst the Lib Dems are on a long journey back, Jeremy Corbyn’s handling of the budget crisis (not overdoing the point scoring) may ensure a better set of election results in May than he could have hoped for a few weeks ago.

CAN LABOUR EVER WIN AGAIN ?

I’m not sure Labour can ever win another General Election, certainly under Corbyn and possibly anyone else.

The industrial and trade union base went long ago. Their traditional working class support is flirting with UKIP or if they are old, voting Tory. Scotland has fallen to the SNP and if the Scots want an alternative, the Tory Ruth Davidson is a better bet than Kezia Dugdale, the latest unknown to lead the Labour Party in Scotland.

Then there are the vicious Tories. Not content with smashing the Lib Dems, they are now targeting Labour with a string of legislative measures that will weaken them like individual voter registration, the reduction in parliamentary seats and the requirement for trade unionists to opt in to paying the political levy.

Then we come to the director of the polling organisation Britain Thinks. I heard Deborah Mattinson speaking at a Labour conference in London last weekend. Delegates had just heard party leader Jeremy Corbyn speaking. He was calm, unspun and true as ever to his socialist principles. He gave unilateralism a rest, instead coming up with the idea that companies should be prevented from paying dividends to their shareholders if they didn’t pay the living wage.

He was given a good round of applause and then the delegates spent the rest of the day looking at the mountain, nay the north face of the Eiger, that they would have to climb to win power again. They will need to win an additional 106 seats and 40% of the total vote to win in 2020. Last year they needed a swing of 5% in the marginal seats, next time it will be 10 %.

Now here’s the killer for Labour. In 2015 they could rely on large numbers of Liberal Democrats coming across. Next time 4 out of the 5 new voters Labour will need will have to be people who voted Conservative last time. How likely are Tory voters in Milton Keynes, Nuneaton, Bolton West and Morley to vote for Jeremy Corbyn?

Next the age problem. Older people vote and are increasingly voting Tory whereas the young who are more left leaning are far less inclined to go to the polling station.

Now I want to turn to a man with a low profile but who had a big job in last year’s election, Tom Baldwin. He was Ed Miliband’s senior adviser. He spoke some home truths to the activists, like don’t trash your record and expect to win. He was referring to the way the record of three time election winner Tony Blair has been heavily criticised by Labour activists keen to distance themselves from “New Labour”. Baldwin says that was why the Tories were able to blame the last Labour government for messing up the economy when in fact it was the victim of a global crash.

It gives me no satisfaction at all to write this. I want a vibrant democracy with two or three parties vying for power under a fair election system. But if we are not to face the prospect of the Tories in power for twenty years, what is to be done? Labour MPs who believe in “heart and head” social democracy need to sink their differences with Liberal Democrats and moderate Greens. Then they need to form a new party to represent the centre left where the British people have been in 1945, 1964, 1974 and for thirteen years from 1997.